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Countrywide is a stock you could have made big money on just playing today as it traded from lows ~15 and closed at its high around 17. It’s not a terrible play depending on how you see the market in the next 12 months. But, in my opinion, it is only safe as a longterm play. Or, potentially a short term momentum play right now, but given the jittery nature of the financial sector all around, I would be averse to playing such a game.
Countrywide stated the lofty expectation of a return to profitability by the end of next year. A few months ago, Bank of America showed their support with a $2 billion dollar preferred stock investment (or once could say CFC secured a BOA deal). It’s interesting that CFC is now pursuing a new strategy of focusing on its retail banking capabilities and trying to shift its risks away from capital markets. I still believe that the mortgage backed securities crunch and the housing market in general will dictate whether or not CFC ever returns to its lofty highs. But, trading at just a 4.95 PE (granted likely with continued negative earnings in the future), this is a stock which has the potential to be a homerun a year or two down the road. It all depends on how prescient your view of the mortgage markets ends up being. I, for one, know that I don’t have nearly enough knowledge to play that game. At least not right now. But, I’ll keep my eye on CFC and might participate in a short term rally should that materialize.
This seems to be a tangent from the initial post at this point, but that’s the beauty of comments and how they can add to the depth of the topics covered on this blog! Anyways, Chad Brand at PeridotCapitalist.com wrote up a great post which sums up my opinion of financials and mortgage players in a much more eloquent way. Check it out: http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2007/10/countrywide-predicts-trough-shares-soar.html
WFR is a very interesting stock and company. There have been a huge amount of folks who keep saying this company simply cannot keep it up, and yet they have done just that.
WFR is a stock you have been pushing for a while now on your blog and I am not startled to see taht your prediction actually played out. A bit disappointed you didnt get to reap the 15% gain. A stock im a little disappointed I didnt get into sooner and I had been a huge fan especially after the credit crunch in August was Countrywide (CFC). Their 30% gain today has startled me and has me kicking myself for not longing the mortgage market, but I still think its not to late to get in…views?