The Curious Investor

Well, I figure it’d be a good time to post a quick update on my investments now that November has come to an end. Without a whole lot of trading action in my portfolios, I haven’t acknowledged my own holdings for quite some time and I’m sure many readers are curious as to how they are doing. Since I’m currently running three strategies, we’ll take this week to have posts on each of the three strategies and how they are doing.

Portfolio A
The goal of this portfolio is to take advantage of short to intermediate term momentum plays in hopes of maximizing percent return over a full year. It’s to be expected that this strategy will be volatile and it was this quarter losing nearly 13% of its value before quickly regaining most of the lost ground to finish the month down just 1.6%.

China Mobile 

China Mobile had yet another record month as far as its signing of new subscribers go. But, rumors about its Shanghai IPO being pushed back and continued rumors of the Chinese government trying to reign in stock market growth have knocked the stock down from highs in the low 100s back to a trading range between 93 and 81. It seems that a new intermediate base is forming and I am beginning to wonder whether or not it is time to take profits and move on. With the volatility and lack of convincing short-term plays in the market currently, I’m content to continue to watch this position with a careful eye. Some signals in MACD and RSI in the last few days have been bullish, so we’ll see if maybe there’s some follow through for a new rally.

While there are talks of opening up competition in the Chinese mobile market, China Mobile holds an enormous market share and it would seem that the status quo should carry on for quite some time. While I entered this position hoping for a quick profit, I’ve since been sold on this company’s long term story. Even if forced to sell should this stock breach its base ~$81, I would book a 70% gain on the position. I’m content with that.

Google and Apple

I entered both of these positions on the same idea. Tech stocks pounded in a correction any real fundamental reason for their decline. Both appreciated quickly and corrected heavily with the run and subsequent correction in the tech sector. Now, they are rebounding swiftly and fast approaching important testing points. Google looks to be losing traction at the psychologically significant $700 level. And, Apple seems to have hit resistance at $185.

Fundamentally, I can justify Google’s valuation in the $710-$720 range given projected forward PE around 30 and continued earnings performance and thus am willing to give it some rope as we go through this market correction. Apple, on the other hand, I am wary of given lofty expectations of growth from a company who relies on hit consumer product for its performance. Should it not be able to breach its upper resistance at $190 in the next few weeks, I will happily take profits and move on.

Humana
I bought Humana using the earnings beat strategy I proposed earlier this quarter and profits soared as expected. Unfortunately, it seems that market turmoil in addition to outcry over Humana’s record profits (mostly from a Medicare unit that law makers seem to believe should not be profitable) put a damper on the hype. That being said, the position has appreciated steadily and seems to have a good, albeit slow upward trend going. Chart isn’t overly interesting here. The analysis is materially unchanged since I first identified Humana as a potential investment.

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