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As everyone knows by now, the new 3G iPhone debuted this Friday. Here in New York, lines at the 5th Ave. Apple store started weeks ago and supposedly forced the store to close the line for a period of the day due to overcrowding (and some issues with activation). More impressively, nearly all AT&T stores were sold out by mid-day. More to the point, Apple is not pulling a Sony here and purposely creating supply shortfalls. Instead, Apple plans to continue to ship products to Apple stores nearly daily and AT&T stores are expecting new shipments within days as well.
But, you know what? This might not just be a transient event. iPhone-mania could last well longer than the one-holiday wonder that was Tickle-Me Elmo. When the iPhone first came out, I jumped into Apple as a short-term trade knowing that the fervor and quick earnings boost would juice the stock which had just fallen precipitously for no real reason. I downplayed the impressiveness of the iPhone because I didn’t originally believe that the Apple model would work to truly “revolutionize” the smart phone industry. I wasn’t happy with the completely closed OS and I felt that Apple delivered a stunted product. With the release of the iPhone SDK and this new iPhone firmware (most importantly an App store), I am changing my mind. While I still believe that the Apple iPhone OS doesn’t necessarily have a leaps-and-bounds advantage over Google’s up-and-coming Android or Nokia’s Symbian systems (both of which will now duke it out for Smartphone marketshare), I have been convinced by a technology friend of mine that Apple’s product strategy and brand clout have given them a massive advantage in taking steps to dominating the rapidly emerging personal mobile computing business. For a better and more technical explanation, I defer to my good friend, Benny, in his two part series on “Why the iPhone is important” (Part 1, Part 2).
With this in mind, and no immediate “iPhone killers” on the horizon, I have upgraded my “trading” position in Apple to a “hold” and am gladly long. Could it be the next iPod? Well, with recurring revenue from the App store, a legion of developers excited and able to utilize the platform, and the press clout to drown out the advances of a disorganized band of competitors (BlackBerry, a Microsoft who hasn’t gotten mobile right since the appropriately named WinCE, whatever companies decide to try Android, and Nokia’s too-little-too-late attempt to promote Symbian), there’s a legitimate chance.
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On a related note: I have an idea for a very fun little web/iPhone development project and would be interested in partnering with someone with technology skills beyond mind. If you’re interested, please contact me and we can speak a little further on it.
