Archive for June, 2009

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at June 25, 2009

My most recent post on mall REITs Buy valtrex without prescription, (SPG in particular) got me thinking about Sears Holdings, a company that I disparaged a few weeks ago in a post called, "Unsuccessful Profits." More particularly, my chart on REIT valuation based on square footage owned made me wonder. Valtrex online review, REITs - Price to Square Foot

Aas you can tell, price per square foot data can vary quite significantly, buy valtrex no prescription required. Valtrex tablet, Not all square footage is created equal and, ultimately, valtrex tablets, Valtrex price, it's how you monetize your square footage which really matters. In the case of Sears, cheap valtrex, Tablet valtrex, though they own a significant amount of retail square footage, the majority is leased to its own businesses which have performed in lackluster fashion to say the least, valtrex in us. Lowest price valtrex, Despite this, there has to be some assumption of inherent value in the square footage, cheap valtrex tablets. (This is something I ignored when I made the statement that Sears' sales declines and lack of investment in its stores was an unsustainable business model.)

The Company's 10K is a bit opaque as far as square footage controlled, buy valtrex without prescription. Cheap generic valtrex, From the information available, I pieced together that the Company is in control of something like 267 million square feet of retail space, valtrex online pharmacy. Valtrex order, However, it only owns 814 of 3, valtrex overnight, No rx valtrex, 918 stores and classifies 1,061 stores as "independently owned and operated." Assuming that the Company could only exercise "REIT-like" control over these stores, cheap valtrex from uk, Overnight valtrex, it's "REIT valuable" square footage is probably closer to somethign like 100-125 million square feet. At the median price to square foot value above ($35.71 per square feet), drug valtrex online purchase, Sale valtrex, we would find the owned real estate of the Sears business valued around $4 billion and, at the average price ($49.44 per square feet), cheap valtrex in usa, Valtrex online, a hypothetical Sears REIT should be worth $5-$6 billion.

Sears is currently trading at $7.9 billion in market cap, order valtrex no prescription. Buy valtrex without prescription, The above analysis is admittedly rough and back of the envelope, but it does lend some credence to the idea that Sears is very conservatively valued (possibly undervalued) by the market. Purchase valtrex without prescription, Even if my argument that the Sears retail business is unsustainable is true and we were to ascribe zero value to Sears and Kmart retail (a horrible over simplification), the value of the Kenmore, cheapest valtrex online, Order valtrex on internet, Craftsman, Lands End and various other brands is likely worth at least $1-$2 billion (Sears holds tradenames and intangibles on the books at $3.3 billion), buy valtrex on line. Valtrex rx, This ascribes an overall value to the business around $6-8 billion in the most draconian of cases.

As long as Sears and KMart underperform and as long as market value for the stock stays at or below this baseline valuation, cheap valtrex no prescription, Valtrex from india, it does make a significant case for management to spend money buying back stock and otherwise operating to realize value from the real estate as opposed to throwing money at capex to turn around the standard retail business. The question is, valtrex drug, Valtrex free delivery, with two retail behemoths the likes of KMart and Sears, how exactly can management catalyze the realization of the underlying "REIT" value in the Company's real estate, valtrex pills. And, can this happen in a timeframe quick enough to provide adequate return to investors who might be thinking about going long on SHLD today, buy valtrex without prescription. Valtrex buy online, If any out there in the community have more insight on Sears' real estate holdings and its potential valuation as a REIT, do feel free to chime in, buy valtrex. Valtrex without a prescription, I admit my analysis is cursory at best, but I think it's directionally correct and does beg further analysis as SHLD is beginning to look like a more compelling stock despite its retail businesses' poor operating performance, valtrex in australia. Cheap price valtrex, Full Disclosure: No positions in SHLD at the time of writing. , valtrex overnight delivery. Valtrex generic. Valtrex sales.

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at June 22, 2009

1 Comment

SPG vs, <b>discount lexapro without prescription</b>. <b>Generic lexapro cheap</b>, REIT vs. SP500

A colleague of mine recently brought an interesting phenomenon to my attention, cheapest generic lexapro. REITs and one particular REIT - Simon Property Group (SPG) - have had quite the run in the last few months. The above chart runs from March until today - June 22, 2009, buy lexapro without prescription. Discount lexapro online, It's clear to see that REITs as an asset class (using VNQ as a proxy) have rallied in excess of the broad market. Simon Property Group - a REIT specializing in malls and outlet centers - has rallied even in excess of the REIT class in general (almost 75%), find lexapro. Lexapro pharmacy online, With the S&P 500 (and likely the broader market in general) now showing weakness, could SPG be vulnerable to a precipitous fall, lexapro no rx. Cheap lexapro tablet, It would seem that the increased interest in the REIT asset class and, in particular, lexapro uk, Lexapro online sale, premium names such as SPG has been driven mostly by institutional reallocations to real estate at the beginning of the year, low cost lexapro. Buy lexapro without prescription, This has allowed many REITs to recapitalize and assuage investor fears of potential liquidity issues within the sector. Lexapro without rx, With beginning of the year reallocations set and the market seemingly poised to correct, demand for REIT stocks could face pressure, purchase lexapro overnight delivery. Lowest price for lexapro, Simon Property Group Valuation

Mall REITs - Price to FFO

The traditional metric for REIT stocks is Price to Funds from Operations (FFO) which is a simple adjustment to net income to better approximate true operational profits by adding back depreciation and amortization expenses. We find that SPG is trading slightly above peers in this category, lexapro online cheap. Lexapro for sale, Further, its trading multiple has increased significantly since the end of 2008.

Mall REITs Price to EBITDA

On a price-to-EBITDA basis, buy lexapro online cheap, Order cheap lexapro online, SPG is also trading roughly in line with peers, but still below levels at the end of 2008 despite the overall economic outlook firming up in the last few months.

REITs - Price to Square Foot

On a price to square foot basis, canadian lexapro, Lexapro internet, the market is once again valuing SPG at a premium to other retail oriented REITs. Seems to me that we have a trend here.

Could SPG be in for a larger correction?

REIT comps

Last but not least, let's take a look at how SPG compares to its peers, buy lexapro without prescription. For one thing, buy generic lexapro, Online lexapro, SPG is larger than most of its competitors. Second, lexapro buy, Lexapro discount, it's more conservatively levered than most of its peers. And, buy lexapro overnight delivery, Buy lexapro online australia, finally, it squeezes more earnings per square foot out of its properties than most of its competitors, order lexapro cheap online. Lexapro no rx required, It would seem that Simon is at least somewhat deserving of its current above average valuation, but it's hard to say the extent to which this is reasonable, buy lexapro from canada. Cheap lexapro internet, It would seem that at least in the near term, SPG is a good candidate for a short term correction.

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Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at June 18, 2009

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Posted by Dan Hung

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Buy lipitor without prescription, The markets have rallied nearly 50% off their lows, but the last two weeks have been decidedly slower. Are we about to correct back downwards, buy lipitor online australia. No rx lipitor, How severe will it be. I've been more focused on bottoms-up fundamental stock ideas over the last few months, fda approved lipitor, Lipitor online without prescription, but having made a few purchases these last few months and making some of my losses from 2008 back, it's hard not to feel the temptation to count your blessings, order no rx lipitor, Buy lipitor without prescription, sell in May, and go away, buy lipitor cheap. Buy cheap lipitor, Maybe this year, more than ever, lipitor australia, Lipitor online stores, is the year that said mantra will protect your portfolio from all that could go wrong.

SP 500 I don't make a lot of my purchase and sale decisions based on broad market technical analysis, but I do believe that it can be somewhat helpful in trying time your asset allocation decisions, buy lipitor without prescription.

Taking a look at the above year-to-date chart for the S&P 500, generic lipitor online, Cheap lipitor without prescription, we see signs of what seems to be a profound reversal in trend. The index bounced powerfully off March lows to trade back across its 50-day moving average, buying lipitor. Order lipitor no rx, At this point, the uptrend decelerated but continued in expected fashion until closing today, lipitor overnight delivery. Buy cheap lipitor online, Interestingly enough, today's close and likely subsequent moves in the stock market will signal several technically significant tests of trend, buy lipitor no prescription required. Buy lipitor without prescription, The green trendline above represents the near term trend, breaching this support is less significant to long term investors, but could signal a deceleration in the pace of the stock market's recent rebound. Order lipitor on internet, As there is no obvious new high, higher low which connects our last low to current interim highs, order lipitor from us, Lipitor order, it's difficult to say for sure where long term support ought to hold.

Without the benefit of a long term continuum, lipitor cheap, Find discount lipitor online, the only clear indications of support and resistance can be found using the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In my opinion, order lipitor, Purchase lipitor without prescription, the recent cross above the 200-day moving average is decidedly premature as the 200-day moving average has not yet inflected to form a right-side trend (upwards). Instead, order lipitor from canada, Online lipitor, true support is probably somewhere closer to the 50-day moving average, though it is fast approaching a potential bullish cross, lipitor.

What does this all mean, buy lipitor without prescription. Cheap lipitor from canada, Well, it seems we're at a "crossroads" in market sentiment, lipitor cheap price. Drug lipitor, The appreciation in the market since the brief pullback in May has been on lower volume and lower relative strength as well as an increasingly bearish looking cross in MACD. The implication here is that for the last month we've been the beneficiaries of residual overbuying likely to give way to selling pressure at some point, lipitor discount. Best price lipitor,

Will the market eventually crack down. Buy lipitor without prescription, It's hard to say, but it would seem that at least in the short term, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to shock. The real question is whether or not support will hold, lipitor india. Cheap lipitor from usa, A prudent investor would likely have been taking the opportunity to lock in gains and improve his cash balance so as to capitalize on opportunities when a correction eventually takes hold. Unlike the swift and relentless pullback we experienced in September and October of last year, lipitor from india, Find lipitor on internet, technical indicators have provided more than adequate warning of a potential downturn in broad market action. , drug lipitor online purchase. Buy cheap lipitor internet. Lipitor information. Buy lipitor pills.

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at June 9, 2009

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at June 3, 2009

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2009 YTD Commodity Performance Buy imitrex nasal spray without prescription, Above is a graph of various commodity ETFs. The main ticker is UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund), imitrex nasal spray internet, Cost imitrex nasal spray, a ETF which tracks prices of natural gas delivered at Henry Hub. OIL is the iPath Oil ETN, imitrex nasal spray without a prescription. Cheapest generic imitrex nasal spray, JJA is the iPath Agricultural Commodities ETN. JJM is the iPath Industrial Metals ETN, buy imitrex nasal spray lowest price. And, JJP is the iPath Precious Metals ETN, buy imitrex nasal spray without prescription. Order imitrex nasal spray no prescription, The chart displays the year-to-date performance of these various commodity indexes and it's plainly obvious that one stands out among the others. Generally speaking, cheap imitrex nasal spray online, Cheap price imitrex nasal spray, non-energy commodities have been on an upward trend since the beginning of the year and in fact would have provided mid-to-high teens returns just in the last few months. Even oil, find discount imitrex nasal spray, Find cheap imitrex nasal spray online, though down precipitously in the first two months of the year, has rebounded swiftly to near break even year-to-date, cheap imitrex nasal spray in canada. Find cheap imitrex nasal spray, Only one commodity seems to have lagged behind the rest - natural gas.

Natural gas prices have declined nearly 40% since the beginning of the year and have not at all responded to the recent bullishness in the markets. I've written before about the value of having oil exposure in your portfolio Buy imitrex nasal spray without prescription, , but the same could be said of energy exposure in general. These types of commodities act as a hedge against inflation, generic imitrex nasal spray cheap, Cheap imitrex nasal spray no rx, a direct hedge against increasing energy costs taking a toll out of the businesses you've invested in, and prices are supported to some degree by near universal demand and constrained supply.

Natural gas, imitrex nasal spray buy online, Buy imitrex nasal spray once daily, however, is fundamentally different from oil and this fundamental difference could explain its recent lag as well as give us insight on its potential to rebound swiftly and vigorously.

Oil is a global market while natural gas is a domestic market, imitrex nasal spray overnight shipping. Buy imitrex nasal spray low price, Oil can be easily transported on tankers and through pipelines whereas the transport of natural gas is significantly more difficult. As a result, buy imitrex nasal spray generic, Imitrex nasal spray in bangkok, demand for natural gas in the United States more strictly follows US industrial/residential demand.

Natural gas is typically considered a backup to crude oil. Power plants typically have back up turbines powered on natural gas, order cheap imitrex nasal spray online. In another example, the production of ethane for industrial uses is often determined via the price/value tradeoff of using natural gas or petroleum as a feedstock.

Due to natural gas' secondary nature as a feedstock/fuel, demand is considered seasonal, buy imitrex nasal spray without prescription. Imitrex nasal spray free delivery, Temperature extremes (hot or cold) put extra stress on the energy grid and cause providers to flock to natural gas as a way to control costs in the face of rising demand for petroleum and to quickly scale output to meet demand. Similarly, cheap imitrex nasal spray internet, Buying imitrex nasal spray online, increasing industrial utilization eventually drives producers to choose natural gas as a feedstock for their processes.

As the summer months and potential supply shocks due to hurricane season approach, the time is ripe for natural gas to begin catching up, best price for imitrex nasal spray. Compare imitrex nasal spray prices, In 2006, the Department of Energy published a statistical study of natural gas and oil prices between 1989 and 2005, it's findings were consistent with what we expect from the above mentioned characteristics of natural gas, buy generic imitrex nasal spray online. Buy imitrex nasal spray without prescription, As a secondary substitute to petroleum, long term natural gas and oil prices move with significant correlation to one another. Imitrex nasal spray no prescription, Natural gas prices, however, order imitrex nasal spray no prescription required, Lowest price imitrex nasal spray, tend to lag large changes in oil prices and their correlation is muted when oil price changes are transitory as opposed to permanent.

If you're thinking about making a play at natural gas, the key question to ask is whether or not the current rebound in oil is here to stay, canadian imitrex nasal spray. Imitrex nasal spray without rx, More fundamentally, this is a question of how significant and how rapid the rebound in industrial production in the United States will be, imitrex nasal spray medication. Cheap imitrex nasal spray pharmacy, I won't portend to be a master of economic and business indicators or to have a crystal ball, but what I do know is that having the benefit of watching oil and other commodities, imitrex nasal spray buy drug, Imitrex nasal spray in malaysia, betting on natural gas is not a difficult leap at all.

Full disclosure: Author has no direct positions in any of the funds and commodities mentioned in this post, real imitrex nasal spray without prescription. Generic imitrex nasal spray, Author is long shares of LINE, an oil and gas MLP, and VLO, an oil refiner. .