Archive for August, 2009

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 30, 2009

Buy clomid without prescription, After yet another positive week in the markets, it seems the blogosphere is a buzz with warnings to get defensive. Personally, cheap clomid from canada, Best price clomid, I understand the call towards defensive positions, but I still believe the best investments are not those based on top-down trends, clomid order. Clomid approved, Instead, I like to focus on a concentrated portfolio of well-researched, clomid pill, Buy clomid no prescription required, fundamentally driven investments.

Economic and Market Outlook

Sean Maher of Dead Cats Bouncing reminds us that, clomid sales, Find discount clomid, despite a "stunning" rally in various equity markets, risks still loom large to a sustained global recovery.

Doug Kass gives us his ten reasons for why the market rebound is premature.

The Telegraph wonders if Ben Bernanke is the right man to lead us back to sustainable prosperity, pharmacy clomid. Low price clomid, Can he handle the "exit strategy" - shrinking the fed balance sheet, combat runaway inflation - with as much boldness as he did in attempting to stem the recession?

Barry Ritholz of The Big Picture provides an analysis of market rebounds and corrections during a secular bear market.

Bespoke Investment Group backs up the negative sentiment with its composite of monthly Dow Jones returns, buy clomid from canada. Find clomid online, Turns out, September is typically the worst month of the year for investors.

So, clomid pills, Drug clomid online purchase, where should you put your money?!

reminds everyone not to forget about gold.

Jae Jun at Old School Value takes a look at Warren Buffet's portfolio and gives a rundown of his valuation estimates.

Market Folly digs into Harbinger Capital's SEC filings and finds that they've begun accumulating natural resources exposure.

Dividend Growth Investor takes a look at dipping back into financial stocks. You might be surprised at where he's looking.

The Dividend Guy (echoing my sentiment on retirement investing) focuses on asset allocation for risk management.

Other Articles of Interest

In response to some comments on my post "Five Dividend Stocks for those that Missed the Rally", get clomid, Buy discount clomid online, I'll refer to Dividend Tree's most recent article describing the value of both capital appreciation and dividends to investment return.

Spurred by VC-cum-online celebrity Fred Wilson's post on "Books for Entrepreneurs," check out this great wiki compiling must read books for entrepreneurs.

That's all for this week, canada clomid, Clomid uk, folks. Feel free to add your best links to the comments or contact me if you'd like to submit your article for next week/sponsor next week's recap ala Pinnacle Digest in our August 16, compare clomid prices online, Buy cheap clomid internet, 2009 post. Buy cheap clomid online. Find cheap clomid. Cheap clomid. Cheap clomid in canada. Order clomid from canada. Clomid buy drug. Cheap clomid in uk. Approved clomid pharmacy. Order clomid online. Best price for clomid. Clomid. Clomid vendors. Buy cheap clomid. Order clomid no rx. Online clomid. Clomid india. Clomid tablet. Clomid purchase. Cheapest generic clomid online. Discount clomid no rx.

Weekend Diversions, Weekend Recap

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 27, 2009

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I've talked a lot about net working capital Buy accutane without prescription, in several of my posts. In fact, buying accutane online, Discount accutane without prescription, I used it in my post this Monday when trying to determine Apple's distributable cash. For those that felt lost, accutane drug, Buying generic accutane, I had once described this process in my post on how to analyze businesses in a recession. Upon looking over these posts, accutane canada, Cheapest accutane prices, I've realized that some who are unfamiliar with working capital metrics and how they work may remain confused so I'm going to try to make it even clearer.

For this case study, cheap price accutane, Buy accutane generic, it will help to know how to calculate various working capital turnover metrics - Receivable Days, Inventory Days, accutane in australia, Order cheap accutane, and Payable Days. You can find that in my Fundamental Analysis Series, buy accutane without prescription. But, buy accutane internet, Cost of accutane, I'll review it quickly as we go.

Working Capital Case Studies

Here, buy accutane from us, Cheap accutane tablet, we have two businesses. Jimmy's Computer Builders is a computer business for which customers order a computer, order accutane from us, Accutane online sales, pay money immediately, and then Jimmy builds the computers and sends them to the customer ten days later, buy accutane online. Buy cheapest accutane online, Joey's No-Money Down Computers is trying to win over customers by offering to allow customers to pay for their computers 60 days after they order them. Buy accutane without prescription, Otherwise, Joey operates exactly the same as Jimmy's by building computers within ten days. Both companies use the same suppliers and have received 30-day terms, order accutane. Purchase accutane overnight delivery, That is, their suppliers expect to be paid within 30 days of delivering parts to the businesses.

Despite operating basically the same business, buy discount accutane, Discount accutane online, Jimmy has negative net working capital of $3,288 where as Joey has positive net working capital of $4, order accutane in us, Buy generic accutane, 932. What does this mean, buy accutane online cheap. Cheap accutane overnight delivery, It means that Jimmy's business "creates" $3,288 of cash simply by operating, buy cheapest accutane. He collects money up front, buys parts, builds the computers, sends them to the customer and then leisurely pays back his suppliers, buy accutane without prescription. Buy cheapest accutane on line, Joey's business, on the other hand, accutane free delivery, Cheap accutane pharmacy, requires $4,932 to operate, cheapest accutane price. Cheap accutane no prescription, He needs to find a way to get cash, buy parts, order accutane without prescription, Cheap accutane online, build the computers, then pay his suppliers all before getting any money from his customers.

What we've just described is each business' cash conversion cycle (CCC), find discount accutane online. Order discount accutane, The CCC determines how much financing a Company needs to operate and grow or how well a Company may be able to finance its own growth and operations. Let's look at these two businesses one at a time.

Jimmy's Computer Builders (Upfront Payments)
In the case of Jimmy's business, accutane discount, Accutane online cheap, as the Company receives more and more customers, each customer pays up front and allows Jimmy to use their money to finance his business' growth as he can take their payments and invest in new inventory to build and sell, purchase accutane no rx. Jimmy has a negative working capital business Buy accutane without prescription, . For Jimmy, however, if business tapers off or he's forced to liquidate, he will lose the benefit of new cash but still have suppliers to pay. Accutane pharmacy, As such, in a downturn, Jimmy cannot be complacent with his cash management. In a larger sense, he can't be taking all his extra cash and dividending to his shareholders or investing in new projects unless his business is stable or consistently growing.

Joey's No-Money Down Computers (Delayed Payments)
Joey, on the other hand, requires financing to get his business started. He needs to find money (probably through issued debt) in order to get inventories and pay suppliers while he waits for his customers to pay 60 days later. Joey has a positive working capital (think: he requires capital to do work) business, buy accutane without prescription. As Joey's business grows, he will need more and more outside financing to invest to service his increasing customers. This could be difficult and limiting. On the other hand, if Joey's business cycles down, he should theoretically be able to collect his receivables and pay his suppliers as well as the debt he incurred to run the business. There is however, more payment risk as some customers may just not pay and Joey will be left holding the bag for having spent time and money building a computer.

Cash Conversion Cycle Days Buy accutane without prescription, Just how much of his business can Jimmy self finance. Or, how much cash does Joey need to finance his business. This is calculated by a simple equation:

Cash Conversion Days = Inventory Days + Receivable Days - Payable Days

Basically, the time it takes to turn your inventory into sales plus the amount of time it takes to receive cash from each sale minus the days you have to pay your suppliers shows how many days worth of cash you business either makes available or consumes. Inventory days is calculated by dividing average annual inventory by cost of goods sold (inventory turns) and multiplying by 365. Receivable days is calcuated by dividing average annual receivables by sales (receivable turns) and multiplying by 365. And, finally, payable days is calculated by dividing average annual payables by cost of goods sold (payable turns) and multiplying by 365.

As to be expected by the negative working capital, Jimmy's Computer Builders creates 20 days worth of cash. This implies that Jimmy has 20 days to freely use a customer's payments before either getting more cash from other customers (if the business is growing) or using this cash to pay off his current liabilities (in our example his suppliers). On the other hand, as implied by Joey's positive working capital, Joey 's business has a 10 day CCC which implies that he needs outside financing of 10 days worth of operating cash in order to keep his business operating smoothly.

Fundamental Analysis, Tutorials

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 25, 2009

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Buy zoloft without prescription, Just a little digression tonight, the Megamillions jackpot is up to $252 million tonight and I thought it'd be fun to do a little quick analysis of your chances of winning. Zoloft without rx, For those that don't know, the game is played by choosing five numbers from a set of 1 to 56 (without reptition) and then a "megaball" number between 1 and 46, buy generic zoloft online. Zoloft professional, So, for those that know a little about probability, find zoloft without prescription, Zoloft in uk, there are (56C5)*46=175,711, cheapest zoloft, Where to order zoloft, 536 different permutations of numbers that you can choose. Rather than go through all the probabilities of winning, zoloft rx, Zoloft overnight delivery, the lottery actually publishes its own listing of probabilities to help you out. Check it out below:

Megamillions Probabilities

So, buy zoloft once daily, Zoloft from canada, knowing these probabilities, let's calculate expected values, zoloft buy online. Expected values are calculated simply by multiplying the expected result by the probability of it happening, buy zoloft without prescription. Zoloft price, Here's how we would do it for playing the Megamillions.

Subtract $1 from all the payouts listed in the above table (the cost of playing)

Multiply each payout by the probability of it happening and sum them

Calculate the probability of not winning anything (1-sum of the probabilities of winning)

Multiply the probability of not winning by -$1 (the cost of playing)

Add this to the result from Step 2

At a $252 million jackpot, the expected value of buying a lottery ticket is $0.61, zoloft online without a prescription. Find cheap zoloft online, That means that if you spend $1 to buy a ticket, you can expect to see a return of 61 cents, zoloft overnight shipping, Free zoloft, or less than you "invested" in the game. Probabilistically, find no rx zoloft, Zoloft cheap price, it's entirely not worth it to play.

What would the jackpot have to be to make it "worthwhile" to play, zoloft online pharmacy. Buy zoloft without prescription, Backing into an expected value of $1 for playing yields a target jackpot of $320 million. Buy zoloft lowest price, Obviously, the above scenarios ignore two important facts, purchase zoloft. Canadian zoloft, First, you face taxes on any money you win (except winnings <$600 which you can get in cash at your local convenience store and probably not report.., zoloft prices. Zoloft no rx, not that I advocate not paying your taxes...). Second, zoloft alternative, Sale zoloft, the "lump sum" jackpot is usually approximatly 40% less than the headline jackpot number. So, the real "breakeven" expectation jackpot is more like $904 million, buy zoloft without prescription.

So, zoloft cost, Zoloft online, let's bring this back to some practical lessons for investing. First and foremost, lowest price for zoloft, Zoloft non prescription, "rational" investors should never play a game that has an expectation below the amount you pay to play. Yet, zoloft no prescription, No prescription zoloft, somehow, the record Megamillions jackpot is $365 million, generic zoloft. Buy zoloft pills, Thus, it would seem there's a large amount of people out there willing to play the game well before any rational expectation of winning, cheap zoloft from usa, Cheap zoloft internet, let alone a miniscule probability of winning the jackpot. Buy zoloft without prescription, If so many are willing to spend even a dollar on the lottery, how are we so sure that capital markets are efficient!.

Arguments against popularly held market theories aside, zoloft in us, Generic zoloft online, it's clear that people are irrationally willing to play games of chance. If this is true, buy zoloft from india, then might this point us to an interesting investment thesis. Why not invest in purveyors of games of chance. Casinos and gaming is a massive industry and there are many publicly traded options available. Publicly traded casino operators include MGM Mirage (MGM), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) all trade publicly, buy zoloft without prescription. Some racetrack and slot machine operators are publicly traded as well like Churchill Downs (CHDN), Penn National Gaming (PENN), and Empire Resorts(NYNY). Then, there are the Companies which supply these gaming operators - International Game Technologies (IGT), Bally Technologies (BYI), and WMS Industries (WMS).

Or, you could just go after investments in all things vice - gaming, tobacco, and firearms - as described in my article from February of last year - Indulge Your Vices.

Full disclosure: No positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post. .

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

Buy Nexium Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at August 24, 2009

1 Comment

Buy nexium without prescription, Apple's stock is fast approaching its 52-week high of $177.50 set almost exactly 1-yar ago and seems within striking distance of its all-time high valuation near $200. Overnight nexium, I wrote at the beginning of the year about Apple's intrinsic value and recommended buying the stock when it hit $89/share amid rumors of Steve Jobs' declining health and Apple's inability to continue to make hit products. The stock has appreciated almost 90% since and it would seem a good time to revisit the Company's valuation, cost nexium. Order nexium no prescription required, My method of determining whether or not a stock is trading at a "value" is to determine the market's implied valuation. Rather than attempt to model and predict a company's operating performance, find nexium no prescription required, Buy nexium low price, I use the current market value to back into implied growth rates. Then, I try to make a decision as far as how realistic the market implied growth rate actually is, buy nexium without prescription. In the end, nexium online stores, Nexium malaysia, we retail investor without the ability to control the company's we invest in are merely trying to determine reasonable prices at which to "buy growth."

Calculating Apple's Market Implied Growth Rate

Step 1: Excess asset value
The foundation for a stock's value is the intrinsic value of the Company's assets. Not all of the Company's assets are distributable, nexium pharmacy online. Buy nexium online without prescription, Obviously, some baseline level of assets are necessary in order for the Company to operate as going concern, order generic nexium. Nexium online without prescription, As such, we'll leave long term assets alone and focus instead on current assets and working capital, nexium side effects. Buy nexium without prescription, As of June 27, 2009, Apple reported negative net working capital (exclusive of cash) of -$5.8 billion. Order nexium cheap online, This implies that the Company is able to generate cash through its operations. As such, price of nexium, Generic nexium cheap, it is possible that the company could finance its growth through operations and this would mean that, as a going concern, nexium us, Certified nexium, Apple has no immediate need for cash on its balance sheet. Thus, cheap nexium on internet, Buying nexium, the $24.3 billion in cash and short term equivalents on the Company's balance sheet is effectively distributable.

To be conservative, online pharmacy nexium, Discount nexium, however, let's discount this cash, find nexium on internet. After all, management has shown no intention of distributing cash to shareholders and as long as this value held at Apple, there is risk to investor's ability to realize it, buy nexium without prescription. Order discount nexium online, Most conservatively, Apple should hold enough cash to cover the entirety of its liabilities in excess of other current assets, nexium prescription. Cheapest generic nexium, This implies $11.4 billion of the $24.3 billion should be reserved. Thus, nexium medicine, Buy nexium in canada, Apple's excess distributable asset value is between $12.9 billion and $24.3 billion.

Step 2: Value of Cash Flows
Now, buy nexium on internet, Buy nexium online australia, we begin a "reverse" DCF analysis on Apple. Buy nexium without prescription, Over the trailing twelve months, Apple has generated free cash flow (defined for simplicity as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) of $10.3 billion.

At zero growth and a 12% discount rate, order nexium overnight delivery, Buy nexium without prescription, the present value of cash flows is worth $85.5 billion.

At zero growth, nexium in malaysia, Buy nexium no rx, Apple's cash flows in addition to excess distributable asset value would be somewhere between $85.5 billion and $109.8 billion.

This implies upwards of a 27.5% downside to Apple's current valuation ($151.5 billion market cap) if it growth were to stall indefinitely, nexium online sale. Drug nexium, Step 3: Market implied growth rate
This is where the analysis can get tricky. I typically, like to make the simplifying assumption that most company's will have about 5-years of additional growth before slowing to a growth rate closer to GDP (2-3%), buy nexium without prescription.

Assuming that Apple will mature in five years and reach a baseline 2% growth rate, cheap nexium pill, Nexium no rx required, the 5-year implied growth which would justify Apple's current $151.5 billion market cap would be 14%.

Does 14% seem like a reasonable year-over-year cash flow growth rate for Apple's next five years. That would be the "over/under" necessary if you're willing to invest new money in Apple today, nexium cheapest price. Order nexium in canada, Next time someone tells you Apple is "fairly valued," you'll know they don't think significant performance beyond this level is likely, cheap nexium in usa.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing..

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 22, 2009

Leave a Reply

Buy wellbutrin sr without prescription, The S&P is over the magical 1,000 barrier and things are feeling exuberant in the stock markets again. But, cheap wellbutrin sr from uk, Order no rx wellbutrin sr, could this just be a false start. It seems some pretty smart bloggers are starting to sound the "come back to earth bell." Here's my run down of some of the best and most interesting articles I've read this week, buy no rx wellbutrin sr. Compare wellbutrin sr prices,

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns warns that consumer spending could be weak for years.

Naked Capitalism echoes this sentiment and gives some reasons for why we should expect a pullback at some point in the near future.

James Hamilton of EconBrowser asks us whether the glass is half empty or half full featuring two charts plotting our recent rebound vs, wellbutrin sr no online prescription. rebounds of various other bear markets, buy wellbutrin sr without prescription. Wellbutrin sr tablets, (For those who didn't realize, in 1930, cheapest wellbutrin sr online, Wellbutrin sr information, the Dow rallied 51% about 100 days after the bottom during the Great Depression only to fall further and deeper for the next two years.)*

* Source material for the EconBrowser Post can be found on Doug Short's original post and Calculated Risk's rebuttal.

It seems, cheap wellbutrin sr no rx, Order wellbutrin sr no prescription, however, that the popular media and policy experts are seeing signs that the recovery has begun, wellbutrin sr bangkok. Wellbutrin sr sale, Is our biggest problem now inflation.

Reuters reports that the Fed may not be able to hold rates low enough to stimulate the economy and fight inflation at the same time.

MarketWatch reports that the IMF believes the recovery has begun but that the path to growth will be slow.

ZachStocks provides his thoughts on Ben Bernanke's recent comments on the returning health of the economy.

Chad Brand of Peridot Capitalist looks at how inflation may help us improve our deficit numbers in lieu of increased taxes.*

* I may disagree a bit with Chad's analysis, order wellbutrin sr on internet. Buy wellbutrin sr without prescription, He uses Debt-to-GDP as a measure of financial health. Wellbutrin sr for sale, This, however, no rx wellbutrin sr, Lowest price wellbutrin sr, ignores that there's still some nominal amount of debt thatwill need to be repaid. Granted, where to buy wellbutrin sr, Canadian pharmacy wellbutrin sr, one assumes that higher GDP (inflated or not) creates higher tax revenues, but then, wellbutrin sr from india, Cheap wellbutrin sr tablets, why haven't we managed to reduce debt on a nominal basis.

On a side note, buy wellbutrin sr overnight delivery, Wellbutrin sr internet, the current health reform debate going on in Washington DC and at town hall meetings around the nation is a very important topic to me and I would like to do my part in helping people get informed. So, low cost wellbutrin sr, Fda approved wellbutrin sr, this week, I've collected some great posts on healthcare in America, buy wellbutrin sr in us. Buy wellbutrin sr cheap, Please take some time to read them.

Income inequality and healthcare - Eliot Spitzer

An Honest look at American Healthcare vs, buy wellbutrin sr us. Cheap generic wellbutrin sr, the NHS - The Economist

Healthcare reform in steps - The Economist

The Health Insurance Program Reality Check

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Weekend Diversions, Weekend Recap

Buy Amoxicillin Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at August 19, 2009

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Buy amoxicillin without prescription, The S&P has rallied nearly 50% from its lows and is up over 10% year to date. For those that sat out the rally afraid to get in, amoxicillin generic, Tablet amoxicillin, the market is starting to look (at the very least) fairly valued. It's hard to say where things will go from here, purchase amoxicillin without prescription. Amoxicillin cheap, But, a closer look at the leaders of the recent rally sheds some light on some stocks which just might have been over looked, amoxicillin australia. Buy amoxicillin canada, Not having benefited from the powerful rally we're just experienced, it would stand to reason they will have less to correct should the market turn and offer more of an opportunity for appreciation as investors continue to look for uninflated assets, amoxicillin online review.

August 19 Year-to-Date Stock Market Returns

The above chart graphs the Dow Jones Industrial Average against a proxy for tech stocks (NASDAQ/QQQQ), small cap growth stocks (IJT), and emerging markets stocks (EEM), buy amoxicillin without prescription. Real amoxicillin without prescription, What we see is that, while Dow Jones has rebounded off of lows, lowest price amoxicillin, Cheap generic amoxicillin, it remains barely positive on the year to date and has severely lagged the three other indexes identified in the chart. Despite being in a recession and all the talk of a "flight to quality, buy amoxicillin from us, Amoxicillin online cheap, " the Dow Jones seems to have fallen just as hard as any other stock categories yet has been left behind in the subsequent rebound.

It would seem that investors have flocked back into higher risk assets - emerging markets, tech and small caps - before taking a chance on boring U.S, amoxicillin cheap drug. Generic amoxicillin, large caps. Now, amoxicillin pharmacy, Amoxicillin buy drug, with the market seeming to be sputtering a bit after such a prolonged bounce, it would seem to be prime time to look at U.S, discount amoxicillin no rx. Buy amoxicillin without prescription, large caps. Purchase amoxicillin, These companies due to their size should be leveraged nicely to any sustained rebound in the "real" economy and will likely benefit from a "return to quality" should markets correct.

For those who have sat out the rally still shell shocked by the events of the last 18 months, these stocks continue to pay hefty dividends which, generic amoxicillin online, Get amoxicillin, given low interest rates elsewhere, should make them attractive just for their relative liquidity and safety, amoxicillin tablets. Buy amoxicillin online without prescription, While I'm not advocating using Dow Jones stocks as a savings account, they can function well for the risk averse, canada amoxicillin, Amoxicillin online stores, income oriented investor to augment loss of income due to declining interest rates.

Which of the Dow components look most promising. Well if you subscribe to the Dow Underdog's theory, amoxicillin online pharmacy, Certified amoxicillin, laggards year to date include Exxon (XOM), General Electric (GE), buying generic amoxicillin, Cheap amoxicillin in uk, Proctor & Gamble (PG), AT&T (T) and McDonalds (MCD).

Personally, compare amoxicillin prices, Find cheap amoxicillin, I would also like to overlay stocks with dividend/free cash flow between 25% and 50% (the comfortable payout zone). I generally believe that companies paying above 25% of their free cash flow show a true commitment to their dividends while maintaining dividends below 50% of cash flow provides a bit of a safety net in the event of any unforeseen issues in operations.

Doing a quick screen to find Dow components offering dividend yields greater than 3.0%, amoxicillin india, Find amoxicillin no prescription required, with a payout ratio within my comfort zone, I found Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), amoxicillin prices, Cheapest amoxicillin price, Procter and Gamble (PG), Pfizer (PFE), cheap amoxicillin no prescription, Cheapest amoxicillin prices, Merck (MRK), and Caterpillar (CAT), buy cheapest amoxicillin. Order amoxicillin in us, The only crossover between the Dow underdog list and my quality dividend list. Procter and Gamble (PG)! I think this one deserves a deeper dive.

Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of JNJ and GE, amoxicillin approved. Find amoxicillin without prescription, No positions in any other stock mentioned.