Archive for October, 2009

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at October 29, 2009

I've written extensively about Apple this past year Buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, . And, find yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, Low cost yagara (herbal viagra), not without reason. Investing in the stock has been a very fun ride ($89 - $200 in a little over 6 months), buy cheapest yagara (herbal viagra) on line. Yagara (herbal viagra) canada, The Company whether it be delighting users with new products or frustrating users with its mismanagement of the iPhone app approval process has managed to stay in the headlines and, as a result, yagara (herbal viagra) no online prescription, Approved yagara (herbal viagra) pharmacy, remains a plentiful mine for content. Because Apple has a contentious group of zealous fanboys, buy generic yagara (herbal viagra), Cheap generic yagara (herbal viagra), let me start with my Apple Investor Disclaimer and then get on with the post. This is specifically for mac fanboys, so those who have an open mind and understand how one can have a differing views of a Company and the Company's stock valuation, just skip the blockquote below, buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription.

I, yagara (herbal viagra) pills, Buy yagara (herbal viagra) online, the author of The Curious Investor, am currently long Apple stock, order yagara (herbal viagra) cheap online. Overnight yagara (herbal viagra), In fact, it makes up nearly 10% of my personal portfolio, get yagara (herbal viagra). Cost yagara (herbal viagra), In my apartment are multiple Apple products including several iPhones, several iterations of the iPod, cheap yagara (herbal viagra) in canada, Yagara (herbal viagra) sales, a MacBook, and an Airport Express, pharmacy yagara (herbal viagra). Sale yagara (herbal viagra), I believe Apple is more than just a trendy consumer products maker and that the iPhone truly represents a new growth engine as the world embraces mobile computing. Buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, As an investor, however, I understand that stocks do not only move in one direction. Valuations will overshoot and undershoot true value in the short term and a prudent investor must be aware of this and make decisions with this phenomenon in mind, cheap yagara (herbal viagra) tablets. Buy cheap yagara (herbal viagra) internet, It is possible for a great company to possess a not very great stock valuation (see: CSCO circa 1999-2000). So, order no rx yagara (herbal viagra), Yagara (herbal viagra) online cheap, please, leave your hate mail unsent.

Take a look at the chart below:
Apple 3 Months 10/29/09

Apple's stock gapped up through the psychologically significant barrier of $200/share following Apple's earnings announcement last Monday, yagara (herbal viagra) cheap drug. Find yagara (herbal viagra) online, A headline related pop typically signals a breakaway gap, a stock gap which is typically followed by a continuation but, order generic yagara (herbal viagra), Buy yagara (herbal viagra) once daily, in this case, Apple's gap was more suspicious, cheap price yagara (herbal viagra). While related to good news, Apple's Q4 2009 (FYE 9/26) results were not so much of an upside surprise as previous quarters and investors all but dismissed another characteristically conservative guidance, buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription. Generic yagara (herbal viagra) cheap, Moreover, volume doubled prior to the gap up and remained elevated during the stock's near immediate fall over the last five trading periods, cheap yagara (herbal viagra) online, Yagara (herbal viagra) drug, a tell tale signal of an exhaustion gap.

Exhaustion gaps are defined as stock price gaps which follow in the direction of the prevailing trend. A textbook exhaustion gap should be followed by a reversal soon after the gap and then move to fill the original gap, yagara (herbal viagra) prices. Where to order yagara (herbal viagra), A reversal is confirmed when the gap is filled and price breaches the level prior to the gap.

I realize that I may be early to call this reversal. After all, cheap yagara (herbal viagra) no prescription, Cheap yagara (herbal viagra) on internet, technical analysis is not clairvoyance. Buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, Trends and reversals must be confirmed through chart movements as opposed to "predicted" by the apparent formation of patterns. Traditional technical analysts will always miss the exact top or bottom of a price movement in preference to investing with the certitude of a confirmed trend or reversal, fda approved yagara (herbal viagra). Buy yagara (herbal viagra) no prescription required, As such, it would seem that the seeming formation of an exhaustion gap here is just a red flag, cheap yagara (herbal viagra) no rx. Find yagara (herbal viagra) on internet, Apple's stock has yet to fill the gap, but it has breached the initial gap and looks to be on its way to filling the gap, cheap yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription. Cheap yagara (herbal viagra), If so, could it be possible that the Company's stock is headed for a reversal of its uptrend. Or, possibly entering a consolidation period following an aggressive upward move. If so, it may be time to take some gains off the table and wait for a re-entry point.

Full disclosure: Author is currently long shares of AAPL.

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at October 28, 2009

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Buy black cialis without prescription, For those that follow this blog, I once wrote about an asset class known as business development companies, particularly middle-market lending BDCs. These businesses typically concentrate on investing through the financing of middle-market private equity transactions, order black cialis from us. Black cialis generic, Over the last year, some have come under pressure as a result of government regulations over BDCs which require them to maintain certain asset coverage levels, black cialis online sale. Buy black cialis on internet, As a result of the disjunction in the markets, mark-to-market mark downs on BDC portfolios resulted in some BDCs (most recognizably Allied Capital and American Capital) falling out of line with asset coverage regulations, cheap black cialis in uk, Buy black cialis on line, tripping debt covenants, and discontinuing dividends, cheap black cialis internet. Black cialis from india, On Monday, a major shakeup was announced within the BDC industry, black cialis bangkok. Ares Capital (ARCC), one of a few BDCs which has managed through the recession while maintaining a substantial dividend, announced that it was acquiring a former giant of the industry, Allied Capital (ALD), buy black cialis without prescription. Order cheap black cialis online, The acquisition is expected to be an all-stock deal where ALD shareholders will receive 0.325 shares of ARCC for each share of ALD they own.

ALD, black cialis malaysia, Compare black cialis prices online, which had breached the asset coverage covenants on its debt, has not been able to pay a dividend since the third quarter of 2008, black cialis online stores. Order black cialis overnight delivery, Allied, in fact, black cialis overnight delivery, Black cialis online without prescription, has taken almost a year to restructure its debt agreements leading its auditors to issue a "going concern" warning in its 10Qs in each of the last few quarters. While concerns regarding the Company's debt agreements has weighed down the stock's value, black cialis vendors, Black cialis price, the Company's net asset value per share was reported as $7.49 on June 30, 2009 which includes serious write downs taken by the company over the last year, order discount black cialis online. Buy black cialis without prescription, Why then does the stock trade at 43% of NAV/share. Buying black cialis online, For one, questions about the Company's continued ability to access financing make it difficult to handicap whether or not Allied will ever have the luxury of time to "wait" for its investments to mature and be refinanced, buy cheapest black cialis. Black cialis uk, In fact, pressure to de-lever has already forced the Company to make hundreds of millions in distressed investment sales over the year, buy cheap black cialis online. Black cialis india, Further, the Company has a history of questions being raised over the quality of Allied's investments and its methodology for establishing fair value for its reporting, black cialis medicine. Cost of black cialis, (See David Einhorn's Fooling Some of the People All of the Time)

With all these headwinds facing the Company and the difficulty that the average investor would have verifying the Company's portfolio quality, Allied was more likely a value trap than a good value investment even at <45% of NAV, black cialis in malaysia. But, all that has changed now that Ares Capital has decided to swoop in and acquire Allied, buy black cialis without prescription. Generic black cialis, Ares Capital Corporation is one of few BDCs which has weathered the recent recession without having to suspend its dividend and has not seen outsized portfolio market value depreciation. Further, black cialis pharmacy online, Order black cialis without prescription, it is managed by Ares Management, a distant descendant of Leon Black's famed private equity shop, purchase black cialis without prescription, Low price black cialis, Apollo Management. While a good investor should always do his own due diligence, order black cialis from canada, Order black cialis in us, Ares' vote of confidence likely goes a long way to provide an investor some comfort with Allied's current stock valuation.

Further, order black cialis no rx, Buy black cialis from us, given Allied's troubles securing affordable financing and continued portfolio difficulties, Allied has little incentive not to close this transaction (though some shareholders seem to disagree), black cialis in bangkok. Buy black cialis without prescription, As there's a high likelihood of completion (currently expected to close 1Q 2010), there seems to be a quasi-arbitrage opportunity presented by ALD shares and value investor's dream opportunity to enter into ARCC shares. Black cialis information, As mentioned above each ALD share will be exchanged for 0.325 shares of ARCC. ARCC and ALD closed today at $10.61 and $3.20, buy black cialis canada, Order black cialis no prescription required, respectively. As such, if the deal were completed today, ALD shareholders should receive the equivalent of $3.44 per share in ARCC stock which implies that ALD is currently trading at a 7.75% discount. Now, if you're not interested in investing in the BDC space and simply would like to take advantage of this pricing irregularity, you could buy ALD and short ARCC and simply wait to pocket the spread - a "riskless" arbitrage of this merger. (Caveat being that if the merger falls apart the whole these blows up in your face.)

But, I believe that ALD's current discount is even more compelling from a value standpoint, buy black cialis without prescription. By my estimates based on June 30, 2009 reporting, the combined Allied and Ares should have a net asset value around $15.30/share. At today's $10.61 closing price, Ares is trading at just 70% of combined entity NAV and at 95% of its own reported NAV of $11.05 (post a recent dilutive share offering). This would seem a pretty good discount for a BDC which has proven its ability to manage through a very difficult market environment and a demonstrated ability to access financing, the key trait necessary to realize value from Allied Capital's portfolio.

But, you don't have to settle for ARCC's discount to NAV. Buy black cialis without prescription, As mentioned earlier, ALD trades at a near 8% discount to its conversion price. So, by just purchasing ALD shares today, you can enter ARCC at a below market value discount at a significant discount simply for taking on 6 months of risk as the merger approaches its closing. Is it worth it. More diligence probably needs to be given to Ares' debt portfolio, but I would say on the surface ALD shares have gotten significantly more appealing.

Full Disclosure: Author has no position in the stocks mentioned in this post. .

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at October 22, 2009

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Buy cialis without prescription, Been meaning to write this post for a while, but it seems that my patience has paid off as I have even more chart evidence to work with. And, cialis medication, Buy cialis, that is the main point of this post. Technical analysis is not a means for predicting the future, cialis tablet. Cheap cialis pill, That may seem paradoxical to those who have seen me use technical analysis to attempt to determine buy and sell points. If technical analysis isn't for predicting the future, cialis sale, Buying generic cialis, then how can it be useful.

What I mean by technical analysis isn't meant for predicting is that rigorous technical analysis isn't a means for front running what you "think" may happen to a stock, buy cialis without prescription. It's a means for gleaning information from an existing chart about an existing trend and helping the practitioner to make investments with underlying market supply and demand behind them, find discount cialis. Online pharmacy cialis, I came across this post, "Are Sears Holdings shares headed for a correction?, cheap cialis tablet, Cheap cialis from canada, " at wallstnation.com. The thrust of their argument was that SHLD's shares had traced a head and shoulders pattern and that a significant correction was likely, buy no rx cialis. Cheapest generic cialis online, Here's a "text book" head and shoulders pattern:

HeadandShoulder_050906

The stock rises to a peak and then declines.

The stock rises to a second higher peak and declines, but does not breach support defined by the first decline.

The stock rises to another peak but is unable to recapture the second peak.

The stock breaches the support level formed by the first decline and confirms a reversal of trend

Wall St, cialis for order. Nation posted this chart of SHLD as of 9/30/09:

SHLD 9/30/09

Buy cialis without prescription, Wall St. Buy cialis from india, Nation's contention is that a head-and-shoulders pattern is defined by the three peaks it labels. Wall St, order cheap cialis. Cialis australia, Nation claims that this formation is "one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns." What they miss is the fact that simply the formation of three "head-and-shoulders" style peaks is not the predictor of a trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern must include a breach at the end of the pattern formation, discount cialis. That is step 4 listed above, buy cialis without prescription. Order cialis no prescription, The head and shoulders pattern is a trend reversal not just a "reliable pattern" for predicting a trend reversal. Once the full pattern is formed, certified cialis, Discount cialis online, one can typically expect a continuation of the downtrend after initial support is breached. In the case of SHLD, buy cialis online cheap, Buy cialis us, baseline support was never breached. In Wall St, canadian cialis. Buy cialis without prescription, Nation's own example, lows never breached the initial low in the formation and in fact have maintained an upward bias that they themselves identify in the chart.

In fact, in the chart they show, it is just as likely that a long term uptrend remains well intact and that the chart is merely in-between a series two "higher highs.' Well, a month later, what has happened?

sHLD102209

Well, the stock ripped off an upward run and made a high beyond the "right shoulder" of the supposed head-and-shoulders pattern. Where to buy cialis, At this point, it's hard to identify any near term trend at all, buy cialis generic. Cialis for sale, Generally speaking, it seems the 50-day moving average has provided rough support, real cialis without prescription, Buy cialis internet, MACD shows a bullish bias, and a lower low has not been seen all year.

SHLD 3-year Weekly

In the case of the 3-year, cheap cialis from usa, Cialis rx, weekly price chart, SHLD has just this year managed to return above its 50-week moving average which I believe signals a potential long term trend reversal, buy generic cialis online. Buy cialis without prescription, For more on that, check out my post on long term technical analysis and trend reversals.

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Technical Analysis, Tutorials

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Posted by Dan Hung

at October 18, 2009

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Buy cialis jelly without prescription, Ah, this weekly update thing is difficult to keep up. Find discount cialis jelly online, I've been keeping track of interesting articles, but I just don't seem to find the time to post them, cialis jelly internet. Cialis jelly, I've got a mish mash for you all tonight. Get reading, find cialis jelly no prescription required. Canadian pharmacy cialis jelly, Before we begin, I want to help a fellow blogger promote his new Value Investing Forum, cheapest generic cialis jelly. Jonathan Goldberg is an MBA from the University of Western Ontario and has a value investing blog at JonathanGoldberg.com and hopes to inspire a community of investors to share ideas (much like my goal at TheCuriousInvestor, buy cialis jelly without prescription. Buy cheapest cialis jelly online, So, COMMENT!)

Without further ado, cialis jelly in australia, Cialis jelly approved, here are some articles which piqued my interest last week (or two).

Chris Whalen, buying cialis jelly, Cheapest cialis jelly online, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics (via Jesse's Cafe Americain) believes that Q4 will be a bloodbath for the banking industry.

Dividend Growth Investor discusses the benefits of an emotionless sell policy. I absolutely agree, lowest price cialis jelly. Purchase cialis jelly online, I've written a few posts on this topic myself:

Ino.com presents a detailed technical analysis of Oil ETFs, best price for cialis jelly. Drug cialis jelly online purchase, (Full Disclosure: Curious Investor is an affiliate)

I highly suggest this excerpt from Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book, Too Big to Fail, cialis jelly us. Buy cialis jelly from canada, It's a great inside look at what really went on as America's banking industry was at the brink.

Contingent Capital discusses an easy ratio for determining the health of banks.

Naked Capitalism talks about the continuing shift away from denominating oil in US Dollars. Looks like Kevin Philips' warnings in Bad Money may be coming true faster than we thought.

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Weekend Diversions, Weekend Recap

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at October 15, 2009

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I wrote a little while back about the rumored Apple Tablet Buy cialis professional without prescription, . At the time I talked about my desire for a product which would truly legitimize the netbook/UMPC category. Apple has done a terrific job differentiating its computing offerings, cialis professional from canada. Buy discount cialis professional online, The majority of computer users start with a laptop for general everyday use and occasional mobility. Power users might buy a desktop for more horse power, cheap cialis professional from uk. Cialis professional no rx required, And, everyone needs an iPhone for highly mobile media and light productivity, cialis professional without rx. To me, the natural follow on to these three product categories is a full on mobile productivity device, buy cialis professional without prescription. Order cialis professional online, The Mobile Productivity Device
In my post on the Apple Tablet, I talked about my image of the perfect mobile device being shaped by the viral Microsoft Origami Project videos circa 2006, cheapest cialis professional price. Cialis professional no prescription, Well, leave it to Microsoft to drop yet another follow on which I think once again targets my mobile productivity desires - the Microsoft Courier, cialis professional in uk. Buy cialis professional online without prescription,

E-mail, cialis professional cheapest price, Cialis professional non prescription, a quick and simple input system, and a large enough format for reading larger amounts of text, cialis professional prescription, Buy cialis professional pills, editing pictures, and watching videos, no rx cialis professional. Cialis professional in us, It's just the type of device I'd like to add to my tech tool belt.

Apple's Media Tablet Buy cialis professional without prescription, It seems that recent rumors show Apple to be taking a slightly different tact with regards to the tablet. According to iLounge, discount cialis professional no rx, Cialis professional online, the Apple Tablet is slated to be, for all intents and purposes, cialis professional buy, Discount cialis professional overnight delivery, a large format iPhone. It will run iPhone OS and is meant as a slate-like replacement for books and magazines with the added functionalities of an iPhone, cheap cialis professional pharmacy. Cheapest cialis professional, Should this be written off. Well, buy discount cialis professional, Cialis professional without prescription, I don't think it's as powerful or as compelling a consumer product as the Courier (which is no where near production ready). But, this product does seem to fit Apple's business model very well, buy cialis professional without prescription. They've struck gold once with a personal media player and content ecosystem (iPod + iTunes) and e-reading has gained much more momentum through the release of Amazon's Kindle, best price cialis professional. Price of cialis professional, With an increasing amount of browsing and video watching being done on iPhones, maybe a large format device is just what the doctor ordered, purchase cialis professional no rx. Drug cialis professional, Further, Apple will have the benefit of being able to add more content for sale through its iTunes distribution channel, generic cialis professional online. Find no rx cialis professional, Granted, there's no news on an input system, cialis professional order, Buy cialis professional online australia, and if it is through a on-screen keyboard, this device will be severely handicapped from a productivity standpoint, cheapest cialis professional prices. Buy cialis professional without prescription, At a $700 price range, I just don't know that I'd be interested in purchasing such a piece of hardware. Compare cialis professional prices, So, now it's your turn, buy cialis professional low price. Order cialis professional in canada, What do readers out there think. Which product would you like better, buy cialis professional cheap. Cialis professional side effects, Do you see more potential in one approach versus another.

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at October 5, 2009

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I highlighted Isis Pharmaceuticals a few weeks ago Buy cialis soft tabs without prescription, believing that a sell-off causing a price decline from $19 to $16/share was a prime opportunity to buy a potential high-growth business. Order cialis soft tabs, It seems, however, cialis soft tabs cheap price, Buy cheap cialis soft tabs, that my proclamation may not have been entirely correct. And, cialis soft tabs overnight, Cialis soft tabs buy online, post last week's trading, I've liquidated my position in ISIS, order discount cialis soft tabs. Cialis soft tabs overnight shipping, Do I still think ISIS could present a tremendous opportunity to invest in next-generation biotechnology. I do, buy cialis soft tabs overnight delivery. But, with markets seemingly reaching a top and real cash flow in ISIS years away, it's probably better to be safe than sorry, buy cialis soft tabs without prescription. Cialis soft tabs online sales, Moreover, lacking the ability to perform accurate fundamental analysis due to ISIS's place on its growth curve, cialis soft tabs free delivery, Cialis soft tabs cheap, an investor is left only with technical analysis to guide the investment process and, as I will show, cheap cialis soft tabs in usa, Buy cialis soft tabs, ISIS's charts no longer paint the profoundly bullish picture they once did. Before I begin, order no rx cialis soft tabs, Cialis soft tabs online without a prescription, I recommend those unfamiliar to read my post on long term technical analysis.

Near-term Daily Chart

Around August 10, cialis soft tabs tablet, Cialis soft tabs online review, ISIS began a sell off which brought the stock back towards its 50-day moving average (the MA which I believe signals interim trend support). I opportunistically purchased here knowing that I was investing prior to a confirmatory bullish bounce from this pullback, cheap cialis soft tabs in uk. Buy cialis soft tabs without prescription, As such, I've taken the tact that I may be wrong in my intuition and have watched the stock's performance very carefully since this pullback. Buy cialis soft tabs from us, The stock made a textbook advance after its sell off, however, cialis soft tabs for sale, Cialis soft tabs no prescription, this was on week volume and ultimately re-encountered resistance at its 50-day moving average. For some, order cialis soft tabs, Discount cialis soft tabs no rx, this may have been enough to force a sale, but I am a long term investor and am not averse to dollar cost averaging should I prove to have entered a stock too early, buy cialis soft tabs online australia. Certified cialis soft tabs, So, how does one determine whether to purchase more in hopes of dollar cost averaging or to sell and preserve capital for another day, canadian cialis soft tabs. Best price cialis soft tabs, Long Term Weekly Chart

Above, we take a look at ISIS' 3-year weekly price chart, cheapest generic cialis soft tabs. Here, you'll see that ISIS has been on an up trend since bottoming in mid-October of 2008, buy cialis soft tabs without prescription. Cialis soft tabs side effects, Moreover, through these three years, drug cialis soft tabs, Drug cialis soft tabs online purchase, the stock has held a rather strong uptrend which has never breached its 200-week moving average. In recent weeks, cheap cialis soft tabs from canada, Order cialis soft tabs no prescription, however, ISIS has both breached its recent up trend and, generic cialis soft tabs cheap, Order discount cialis soft tabs online, as of last week, has once again breached its 50-week moving average, cialis soft tabs online stores. Cialis soft tabs without a prescription, It would seem that the stock is more likely in a high-level consolidation phase as opposed to ready to resume its bullish trend. As such, order cialis soft tabs cheap online, Cheap cialis soft tabs overnight delivery, a retest of the 200-week moving average is not out of the question especially given the stock's complete lack of any identifiable interim support in its near-term daily chart displayed above this section. With a potential 15-20% additional value at risk, buy cialis soft tabs low price, I'm not willing to buy additional shares and continue averaging down.