Archive for November, 2009

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Posted by Dan Hung

at November 15, 2009

Buy viagra professional without prescription, This is a follow up to my post, "ISIS Pharmaceuticals breaches long term support." As many of you may know, posts from this blog are often (though not always) syndicated on SeekingAlpha.com. Viagra professional pills, In the case of my previous post on ISIS, I caught significant flack from the SeekingAlpha community, compare viagra professional prices online. Buy viagra professional from canada, Among other things, I was accused of not understanding how to invest in biotech and generally missing the point on Isis' anti-sense technology, purchase viagra professional without prescription. Cheap viagra professional without prescription, (For those interested, I actually posted on Isis' business and fundamental value in a previous post.)

Well, viagra professional in australia, Cheap viagra professional from usa, I figure it's time to post a follow up to my previous post. To recap, viagra professional canada, Where to buy viagra professional, here is the chart I posted on October 5, 2009, viagra professional no prescription. This is a three-year weekly chart which I typically use to determine the intermediate/long term market trend driving the stock, buy viagra professional without prescription. Order viagra professional from canada, ISIS Weekly In this chart, ISIS' stock has breached its 50-week moving average, cheap viagra professional in canada. Cheap viagra professional tablets, Remember that breaching the 50-week moving average necessarily means that the stock has also fallen through its 200-day moving average (not displayed). To me, buy discount viagra professional, Viagra professional pharmacy, this means that, on a short term basis, find no rx viagra professional, Discount viagra professional online, market participants have lost conviction in ISIS' stock. More worrisome to me than the interim breach of the 50-week moving average was the negative divergence in RSI during the stock's previous uptrend as well as the lack of any clear areas of support before the $12 range, online pharmacy viagra professional. Buy viagra professional without prescription, Coincidentally, the $12 support level defined by several previous lows as well as the prior interim high seen on the far left of the chart also coincides with the $12.12 defined by the 200-week moving average. Order viagra professional without prescription, As such, I made the call that "a retest of the 200-week moving average is not out of the question" and that there was "a potential 15-20% additional value at risk" on October 5, cheapest viagra professional, Order no rx viagra professional, 2009.

Okay, buy viagra professional on line, Viagra professional online without a prescription, now let's look at how the stock has traded since my call.

ISIS follow up In the month following my call, find viagra professional on internet, Buy discount viagra professional online, ISIS hit a daily closing low of $12.31/share, basically right at the 200-week moving average (which averaged upwards slightly since October 5, viagra professional in uk, Viagra professional overnight shipping, 2009).

Am I clairvoyant!?
No, online viagra professional, Discount viagra professional without prescription, of course not. In fact, I don't even consider myself primarily a technical investor, buy viagra professional without prescription. I merely use it to guide my short term decisions, canadian viagra professional. Viagra professional professional, For those that write off technical analysis, however, viagra professional online sale, Find viagra professional online, I think this is a great example of just how it can be used to improve your investing. I wasn't analyzing ISIS in hopes of timing my trades, cheap viagra professional. Viagra professional in us, I was merely trying to establish a disciplined stop-loss for a position that I hold. Buy viagra professional without prescription, In the end, I did not buy back into ISIS, but instead allocated capital to BX on November 5, 2009. In the interim, cheap viagra professional no prescription, Viagra professional online sales, I saved myself from holding ISIS and losing an additional 12% on my position.

The key to remember with technical analysis is that it does not stand in place of or in contrast with fundamental analysis, cheap viagra professional pharmacy. Order viagra professional cheap online, But, absent a market moving press release, viagra professional generic, it is a method of understanding how "Mr. Market's" voting machine will vote during a discrete period of time. I know this seems like very carefully chosen wording, but there is no such thing as one strategy which works in all situations in investing, buy viagra professional without prescription. The key is to stick with what you know and have the tools necessary to analyze different opportunities. In the case of determining emotionless stop losses and profit maximizing entry points, I am a believer in technical analysis.

Full disclosure: Author is long shares of BX at the time of writing. No position in any other stock mentioned. .

Technical Analysis, Tutorials

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Posted by Dan Hung

at November 10, 2009

Leave a Reply

In my previous post on the Allied-Ares merger arbitrage opportunity Buy viagra soft tabs without prescription, , I introduced a topic which I realized I've never quite talked about here on The Curious Investor. Buy viagra soft tabs from india, As I intend this blog for both beginning investors and seasoned investors alike, here's a run down on the concept of merger arbitrage, viagra soft tabs approved. Discount viagra soft tabs no rx,

What is arbitrage?
Rigorously speaking, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two markets which allows the arbitrageur, viagra soft tabs without a prescription, Viagra soft tabs no rx, or person taking advantage of the arbitrage, to obtain a risk-less profit, viagra soft tabs cost. Cheap viagra soft tabs from canada, Technically speaking, an arbitrage refers to a situation where the same asset sells for a different price in two markets, lowest price viagra soft tabs. Tablet viagra soft tabs, For example, a textbook in the UK selling for $20 and a textbook in the USA selling for $100, buying generic viagra soft tabs. The arbitrageur would buy the UK textbook and simultaneously sell the USA textbook and pocket the $80 difference, buy viagra soft tabs without prescription. Canada viagra soft tabs, The simultaneous stipulation is sort of a idealized hypothetical case. This act would imply a completely riskless arbitrage since there's no risk of being able to execute one transaction or another or risk of pricing changing at any instance in time, buy viagra soft tabs canada. Viagra soft tabs for order, Merger Arbitrage
There's no such thing as a true riskless opportunity in real life is there. In fact, low price viagra soft tabs, Buy generic viagra soft tabs, in today's world of increasing information parity and quickening execution times, can arbitrage opportunities exist, cheap viagra soft tabs pill. Buy viagra soft tabs without prescription, Well, there's one regular kind of transaction structure which creates potential arbitrage opportunities all the time - merger transactions. Viagra soft tabs australia, When an acquiring company chooses to purchase a target, the stocks of the two businesses will continue to trade independently for a period of time as the deal works out regulatory and other issues before closing, free viagra soft tabs. Buy cheap viagra soft tabs internet, During this period of time, there remains risk that the transaction will not close or any number of other events could prevent the transaction from closing, buy viagra soft tabs no prescription required. Cheap viagra soft tabs online, Provided the transaction does close, however, buy viagra soft tabs on internet, Drug viagra soft tabs, the merger transaction establishes an accepted price for the stocks in question and gives an investor the opportunity to extract value from variations to the closing price.

Five Opportunities if you're interested
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The classic merger arbitrage opportunity is the all stock merger. In the above chart, you can see it with Black & Decker and Stanley Works, buy viagra soft tabs without prescription. Viagra soft tabs discount, Here, the proposal is that Black and Decker shareholders will receive 1.27 SWK shares per Black & Decker share, cheap viagra soft tabs in usa. Compare viagra soft tabs prices, Here, we know that at closing day, cheap viagra soft tabs from uk, Buy viagra soft tabs us, there is an established exchange rate for the two stocks. Yet, viagra soft tabs pill, No rx viagra soft tabs, at closing prices, SWK's closing price of $50.17, viagra soft tabs pharmacy online, Viagra soft tabs buy online, today, the exchange of 1.27 shares would yield an implied value of $63.72/share to Black and Decker shareholders versus Black and Decker's closing price of $62.27 today, buy viagra soft tabs in canada. Lowest price for viagra soft tabs, This is the arbitrage opportunity. Buy viagra soft tabs without prescription, As time passes, we know that the valuation gap must close since the stocks of each company technically represent the same combined entity (assuming the merger closes). As we don't know how exactly the gap will shrink, viagra soft tabs prices, Find cheap viagra soft tabs, we can buy the BDK at $62.27 and short SWK at $50.17 to lock in the spread that we have identified.

The second kind of merger transaction is the all cash deal, purchase viagra soft tabs online. Discount viagra soft tabs overnight delivery, This is simple enough. For example, viagra soft tabs without prescription, Oracle offers Sun Microsystems $8.50/share in cash. In this case, there isn't really an "arbitrage" opportunity as you won't be buying and selling the shares on each side of the transaction, buy viagra soft tabs without prescription. The $8.50 simply sets the exchange value and purchasing the target's shares (JAVA in this case) allows you to profit from any spread.

Finally, there's the Pepsi and PepsiAmericas deal where you see that consideration is given in 50% stock and 50% cash. This is simple enough. Calculate the spread as though the transaction were 100% stock. Then, average that with the value of the cash exchange. And, voila, the implied price.

Full disclosure: No position in the stocks mentioned in this post..

Stock Strategies, Tutorials

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Posted by Dan Hung

at November 5, 2009

3 Comments

Buy viagra super active+ without prescription, In my prior post, "Allied Capital Goes from Value Trap to Deep Value," I made the point that the Ares/Allied acquisition created a potentially interesting merger arbitrage opportunity. As astutely pointed out by commenter BeauZeau at Seeking Alpha, approved viagra super active+ pharmacy, Order discount viagra super active+ online, the merger arbitrage opportunity is not quite as large as I portrayed.

In a classic merger arbitrage, viagra super active+ online without prescription, Viagra super active+ us, the investor ought to short the acquiror (ARCC) and buy the target (ALD). That is because, viagra super active+ medication, Viagra super active+ drug, assuming that the deal closes, the target and acquiror shares are now representative of the same asset, buy viagra super active+ online without prescription. Sale viagra super active+, Consequently, any price discrepancy between the two stocks represents a fundamental disconnect with underlying value*, viagra super active+ online stores. In the case of ARCC and ALD, I posited that the proposed exchange rate of .325 ARCC shares for each ALD share creates an opportunity based on current closing prices, buy viagra super active+ without prescription. Buy viagra super active+ online australia, *Those familiar with the concept of arbitrage will see my description of merger arbitrage as a flawed definition of arbitrage. Officially, viagra super active+ india, Viagra super active+ cheap, merger arbitrage is a risk arbitrage and is not the same as a traditional riskless arbitrage opportunity. I intend to write a follow up post for those who have less experience with this concept later this week, generic viagra super active+. Generic viagra super active+ online,

At Ares' closing price of $10.46/share, ALD shareholders would be entitled to approximately $3.40/share in value, fda approved viagra super active+. Buy viagra super active+ without prescription, This represents a 7.9% premium versus ALD's closing price of $3.15. Find cheap viagra super active+ online, In a classic merger arbitrage, however, real viagra super active+ without prescription, Best price viagra super active+, shorting ARCC would require the investor to pay upwards of two quarters worth of dividends (the ARCC/ALD merger is expected to close by Q1 2010). ARCC currently pays a 13.4% annual dividend yield, cheap viagra super active+ on internet. Buy viagra super active+, Two dividends would equate to roughly 6.7% in yield. As such, buy cheapest viagra super active+, Viagra super active+ cheap price, the true spread between ALD and ARCC is closer to 1% than the 7.9% that is initially seen when only comparing stock prices.

Merger arbitrage does contain some risk, buy viagra super active+ without prescription. The deal may not close in time which could result in an arbitrageur missing more of ARCC's dividends, viagra super active+ side effects. Viagra super active+ prescription, The deal may not close at all which could have completely unpredictable results on stock movements, thus destroying the pair trade (short ARCC/long ALD) opportunity, canadian pharmacy viagra super active+. Cheapest viagra super active+ online, As such, the minute 1% spread is a good sign that the market is pricing a near definite probability of this transaction closing and believes just 1% in return over the next 6 months is adequate compensation for the risk, order viagra super active+. Viagra super active+ online cheap, In this sense, a classic merger arbitrage of ALD and ARCC seems much less worthwhile to us retail investors who don't have massive balance sheets to throw at small percentage gains, low cost viagra super active+. Buy viagra super active+ without prescription, Despite this, I believe the initial thesis of my prior post on the opportunity to purchase Allied Capital stock holds true. Cheapest viagra super active+ prices, Prior to this acquisition, Allied Capital's auditors were issuing going concern warnings, viagra super active+ cheapest price. Get viagra super active+, With the balance sheet and liquidity provided by Ares, Allied Capital's undervalued portfolio definitely looks much more attractive, purchase viagra super active+ overnight delivery. Cost viagra super active+, That being said, on a risk adjusted basis, viagra super active+ tablet, Buy viagra super active+ low price, it would seem much more prudent to outright purchase ARCC at this juncture as you would be "guaranteed" dividends over the next few quarters and you won't have to worry about the risk of the transaction not being confirmed.

Full disclosure: Author has no positions in the stocks mentioned in this post, cheapest viagra super active+ price. Viagra super active+ in malaysia, . Buy viagra super active+ cheap. Viagra super active+ free sample.