Author Archive

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Posted by Dan Hung

at September 1, 2009

Buy ultram without prescription, As some members may know, The Curious Investor is a member of the Forbes.com blog network. This week, buy ultram pills, Ultram without rx, they've organized the bloggers to answer the prompt:

What is your economic forecast for 2010. Are there specific economic markers that you find particularly useful and upon which you rely on in making your prediction?

From my perspective, purchase ultram, Buy cheapest ultram, the United States economy for the last decade has serial bubbled its way to the illusion of wealth. First the internet bubble and then cheap credit financing a housing bubble lined the American consumer's pockets with a seemingly endless growth in wealth, compare ultram prices online. Ultram drug, Now, without the benefit of another asset to quickly inflate, ultram price, Ultram uk, it would seem that we're facing a longterm retrenchment of the consumer as he begins to realize that the last ten years of "wealth creation" may have been quite illusory. To make matters worse, declining consumer demand and tightened credit markets have pushed unemployment rates to new highs further burdening the consumer, buy ultram without prescription. To me, order ultram in us, Buy ultram no rx, any real sustainable turnaround in our economy will have to be lead by a sustainable growth in demand from the American consumer and for this to tangibly affect the "real economy." That is the provision of tangible goods in the United States as opposed to our tail-wagging-the-dog reliance of financial services as an engine for growth. Indicators for Economy 2010

In the above graph, ultram sales, Discount ultram without prescription, we see a decided inverse relationship between U.S. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization versus the Unemployment Rate, buy ultram on line. Find cheap ultram online, Now, this may be a little bit of chicken or the egg, no prescription ultram, Ultram online review, but it's clear to me that the linchpin of any sustainable economic rebound will be a rebound in real production through manufacturing. Buy ultram without prescription, Increased capacity utilization improves employment, spurs new investment which in turn spurs finance, and thus feeds the demand for corporate services and other "soft" services in the industry. So, buy ultram cheap, Best price for ultram, how will we know that we're on solid footing again. I believe that close attention must be paid to three statistics compiled by the economic census - manufacturing shipments, buy ultram in canada, Cheap ultram on internet, orders, and inventories, cheap ultram pharmacy. Ultram free delivery, In the above graph, quarter-over-quarter inventory growth clearly mimics and leads manufacturing capacity utilization, buy ultram on internet. Order cheap ultram online, Admittedly, the link to inventories does not seem predictive enough for those of us hoping to get ahead of the rebound, ultram cheap price. My proposal is to use a metric derived from the census orders and shipments data which I call national book to bill, buy ultram without prescription. Buy ultram overnight delivery, For those unfamiliar with book-to-bill ratios, it is the number of orders in a company's order book versus the number of orders filled in a given period, ultram no prescription. Buy ultram generic, Typically used in the technology sector, this number gives us an idea of whether or not there's sustained demand for a company's supply, order ultram from canada. Sale ultram, Similarly, we can create such a metric based on census numbers by dividing new orders by shipments, ultram overnight shipping. Discount ultram overnight delivery, Book-to-bill ratios greater than 1.0 imply order demand in excess of supply and less than 1.0 imply insufficient demand. U.S, <b>cheap ultram no rx</b>. <b>Buy generic ultram</b>, National Book to Bill

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Above, we see book-to-bill graphed against quarter-over-quarter change in inventories between 1997 and 2009 which incorporates both bubbles, ultram in uk. Buy ultram once daily, First and foremost, we see the beginnings of a deterioration between book to bill leading inventory accumulation, buy cheapest ultram on line. Low price ultram, Instead, particularly between 2003 and 2005, canadian ultram, Ultram for sale, inventory accumulation begins to lead the book to bill ratio. To me, this is a tell tale sign of unsustainable growth through "inventory stuffing" - the build up of inventory due to euphoric projections of the future. Most recently, we see book-to-bill making a small turn ahead of the bottom in inventory growth and could well signal that we've reached the bottom for our current cycle. Obviously, in my mind, we will not be truly in the clear until the "national book to bill" ratio improves above parity (1.0) and along with it comes increased plant capacity utillization and employment.

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 30, 2009

Leave a Reply

Buy clomid without prescription, After yet another positive week in the markets, it seems the blogosphere is a buzz with warnings to get defensive. Personally, cheapest clomid price, Overnight clomid, I understand the call towards defensive positions, but I still believe the best investments are not those based on top-down trends, clomid professional. Cheap clomid in canada, Instead, I like to focus on a concentrated portfolio of well-researched, order clomid no prescription, Clomid non prescription, fundamentally driven investments.

Economic and Market Outlook

Sean Maher of Dead Cats Bouncing reminds us that, where to order clomid, Clomid in us, despite a "stunning" rally in various equity markets, risks still loom large to a sustained global recovery.

Doug Kass gives us his ten reasons for why the market rebound is premature.

The Telegraph wonders if Ben Bernanke is the right man to lead us back to sustainable prosperity, buy clomid internet. Find cheap clomid, Can he handle the "exit strategy" - shrinking the fed balance sheet, combat runaway inflation - with as much boldness as he did in attempting to stem the recession?

Barry Ritholz of The Big Picture provides an analysis of market rebounds and corrections during a secular bear market.

Bespoke Investment Group backs up the negative sentiment with its composite of monthly Dow Jones returns, where to buy clomid. Price of clomid, Turns out, September is typically the worst month of the year for investors.

So, cheapest clomid prices, Clomid vendors, where should you put your money?!

reminds everyone not to forget about gold.

Jae Jun at Old School Value takes a look at Warren Buffet's portfolio and gives a rundown of his valuation estimates.

Market Folly digs into Harbinger Capital's SEC filings and finds that they've begun accumulating natural resources exposure.

Dividend Growth Investor takes a look at dipping back into financial stocks. You might be surprised at where he's looking.

The Dividend Guy (echoing my sentiment on retirement investing) focuses on asset allocation for risk management.

Other Articles of Interest

In response to some comments on my post "Five Dividend Stocks for those that Missed the Rally", clomid buy drug, Buy clomid online, I'll refer to Dividend Tree's most recent article describing the value of both capital appreciation and dividends to investment return.

Spurred by VC-cum-online celebrity Fred Wilson's post on "Books for Entrepreneurs," check out this great wiki compiling must read books for entrepreneurs.

That's all for this week, free clomid, Clomid bangkok, folks. Feel free to add your best links to the comments or contact me if you'd like to submit your article for next week/sponsor next week's recap ala Pinnacle Digest in our August 16, clomid internet, Buy clomid without prescription, 2009 post. Clomid for order. Cheap clomid pill. Cheap price clomid. Order clomid no prescription required. Low cost clomid. Buy clomid online cheap. Clomid pill. Clomid in australia. Cost clomid. Find clomid online. Clomid overnight. Clomid pharmacy. Order no rx clomid. Clomid canada. Clomid online without prescription. Clomid india. Cheap clomid in uk. Order clomid. Discount clomid. Cheap clomid from canada.

Weekend Diversions, Weekend Recap

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 27, 2009

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I've talked a lot about net working capital Buy accutane without prescription, in several of my posts. In fact, cost of accutane, Accutane in malaysia, I used it in my post this Monday when trying to determine Apple's distributable cash. For those that felt lost, cheap accutane from uk, Accutane buy, I had once described this process in my post on how to analyze businesses in a recession. Upon looking over these posts, order accutane in canada, Accutane free delivery, I've realized that some who are unfamiliar with working capital metrics and how they work may remain confused so I'm going to try to make it even clearer.

For this case study, accutane from canada, Buy accutane online, it will help to know how to calculate various working capital turnover metrics - Receivable Days, Inventory Days, approved accutane pharmacy, Accutane online review, and Payable Days. You can find that in my Fundamental Analysis Series, buy accutane without prescription. But, accutane rx, Accutane for order, I'll review it quickly as we go.

Working Capital Case Studies

Here, accutane bangkok, Buy accutane online without prescription, we have two businesses. Jimmy's Computer Builders is a computer business for which customers order a computer, order accutane no prescription required, Buy discount accutane online, pay money immediately, and then Jimmy builds the computers and sends them to the customer ten days later, find no rx accutane. Order discount accutane online, Joey's No-Money Down Computers is trying to win over customers by offering to allow customers to pay for their computers 60 days after they order them. Buy accutane without prescription, Otherwise, Joey operates exactly the same as Jimmy's by building computers within ten days. Both companies use the same suppliers and have received 30-day terms, buy accutane in us. Accutane non prescription, That is, their suppliers expect to be paid within 30 days of delivering parts to the businesses.

Despite operating basically the same business, accutane in us, Canada accutane, Jimmy has negative net working capital of $3,288 where as Joey has positive net working capital of $4, cheapest accutane, Accutane no rx required, 932. What does this mean, accutane approved. Buy accutane generic, It means that Jimmy's business "creates" $3,288 of cash simply by operating, cheap price accutane. He collects money up front, buys parts, builds the computers, sends them to the customer and then leisurely pays back his suppliers, buy accutane without prescription. Buy cheap accutane, Joey's business, on the other hand, accutane side effects, Order generic accutane, requires $4,932 to operate, cheap generic accutane. Best price for accutane, He needs to find a way to get cash, buy parts, compare accutane prices online, Accutane pharmacy, build the computers, then pay his suppliers all before getting any money from his customers.

What we've just described is each business' cash conversion cycle (CCC), order accutane overnight delivery. Accutane medicine, The CCC determines how much financing a Company needs to operate and grow or how well a Company may be able to finance its own growth and operations. Let's look at these two businesses one at a time.

Jimmy's Computer Builders (Upfront Payments)
In the case of Jimmy's business, accutane professional, Find discount accutane, as the Company receives more and more customers, each customer pays up front and allows Jimmy to use their money to finance his business' growth as he can take their payments and invest in new inventory to build and sell, buy accutane no prescription required. Jimmy has a negative working capital business Buy accutane without prescription, . For Jimmy, however, if business tapers off or he's forced to liquidate, he will lose the benefit of new cash but still have suppliers to pay. Accutane medication, As such, in a downturn, Jimmy cannot be complacent with his cash management. In a larger sense, he can't be taking all his extra cash and dividending to his shareholders or investing in new projects unless his business is stable or consistently growing.

Joey's No-Money Down Computers (Delayed Payments)
Joey, on the other hand, requires financing to get his business started. He needs to find money (probably through issued debt) in order to get inventories and pay suppliers while he waits for his customers to pay 60 days later. Joey has a positive working capital (think: he requires capital to do work) business, buy accutane without prescription. As Joey's business grows, he will need more and more outside financing to invest to service his increasing customers. This could be difficult and limiting. On the other hand, if Joey's business cycles down, he should theoretically be able to collect his receivables and pay his suppliers as well as the debt he incurred to run the business. There is however, more payment risk as some customers may just not pay and Joey will be left holding the bag for having spent time and money building a computer.

Cash Conversion Cycle Days Buy accutane without prescription, Just how much of his business can Jimmy self finance. Or, how much cash does Joey need to finance his business. This is calculated by a simple equation:

Cash Conversion Days = Inventory Days + Receivable Days - Payable Days

Basically, the time it takes to turn your inventory into sales plus the amount of time it takes to receive cash from each sale minus the days you have to pay your suppliers shows how many days worth of cash you business either makes available or consumes. Inventory days is calculated by dividing average annual inventory by cost of goods sold (inventory turns) and multiplying by 365. Receivable days is calcuated by dividing average annual receivables by sales (receivable turns) and multiplying by 365. And, finally, payable days is calculated by dividing average annual payables by cost of goods sold (payable turns) and multiplying by 365.

As to be expected by the negative working capital, Jimmy's Computer Builders creates 20 days worth of cash. This implies that Jimmy has 20 days to freely use a customer's payments before either getting more cash from other customers (if the business is growing) or using this cash to pay off his current liabilities (in our example his suppliers). On the other hand, as implied by Joey's positive working capital, Joey 's business has a 10 day CCC which implies that he needs outside financing of 10 days worth of operating cash in order to keep his business operating smoothly.

Fundamental Analysis, Tutorials

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 25, 2009

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Buy zoloft without prescription, Just a little digression tonight, the Megamillions jackpot is up to $252 million tonight and I thought it'd be fun to do a little quick analysis of your chances of winning. Cheapest zoloft price, For those that don't know, the game is played by choosing five numbers from a set of 1 to 56 (without reptition) and then a "megaball" number between 1 and 46, cheap zoloft in canada. Buy generic zoloft online, So, for those that know a little about probability, buy zoloft lowest price, Discount zoloft without prescription, there are (56C5)*46=175,711, order no rx zoloft, Buy zoloft online cheap, 536 different permutations of numbers that you can choose. Rather than go through all the probabilities of winning, zoloft cost, Canadian pharmacy zoloft, the lottery actually publishes its own listing of probabilities to help you out. Check it out below:

Megamillions Probabilities

So, cheap zoloft from usa, Zoloft alternative, knowing these probabilities, let's calculate expected values, buy zoloft low price. Expected values are calculated simply by multiplying the expected result by the probability of it happening, buy zoloft without prescription. Zoloft malaysia, Here's how we would do it for playing the Megamillions.

Subtract $1 from all the payouts listed in the above table (the cost of playing)

Multiply each payout by the probability of it happening and sum them

Calculate the probability of not winning anything (1-sum of the probabilities of winning)

Multiply the probability of not winning by -$1 (the cost of playing)

Add this to the result from Step 2

At a $252 million jackpot, the expected value of buying a lottery ticket is $0.61, buying generic zoloft. Buy zoloft cheap, That means that if you spend $1 to buy a ticket, you can expect to see a return of 61 cents, zoloft vendors, Cheap zoloft no prescription, or less than you "invested" in the game. Probabilistically, cheap zoloft internet, Zoloft free sample, it's entirely not worth it to play.

What would the jackpot have to be to make it "worthwhile" to play, zoloft online pharmacy. Buy zoloft without prescription, Backing into an expected value of $1 for playing yields a target jackpot of $320 million. Zoloft buy online, Obviously, the above scenarios ignore two important facts, zoloft no prescription. Buy cheap zoloft internet, First, you face taxes on any money you win (except winnings <$600 which you can get in cash at your local convenience store and probably not report.., cheap zoloft online. Buy zoloft canada, not that I advocate not paying your taxes...). Second, order cheap zoloft, Cheap zoloft no rx, the "lump sum" jackpot is usually approximatly 40% less than the headline jackpot number. So, the real "breakeven" expectation jackpot is more like $904 million, buy zoloft without prescription.

So, cheap zoloft in usa, Buy zoloft overnight delivery, let's bring this back to some practical lessons for investing. First and foremost, discount zoloft online, Find zoloft on internet, "rational" investors should never play a game that has an expectation below the amount you pay to play. Yet, find zoloft online, Order zoloft no prescription, somehow, the record Megamillions jackpot is $365 million, low cost zoloft. Zoloft overnight shipping, Thus, it would seem there's a large amount of people out there willing to play the game well before any rational expectation of winning, cheap zoloft, Zoloft cheapest price, let alone a miniscule probability of winning the jackpot. Buy zoloft without prescription, If so many are willing to spend even a dollar on the lottery, how are we so sure that capital markets are efficient!.

Arguments against popularly held market theories aside, zoloft cheap, Buying zoloft online, it's clear that people are irrationally willing to play games of chance. If this is true, find zoloft no prescription required, then might this point us to an interesting investment thesis. Why not invest in purveyors of games of chance. Casinos and gaming is a massive industry and there are many publicly traded options available. Publicly traded casino operators include MGM Mirage (MGM), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) all trade publicly, buy zoloft without prescription. Some racetrack and slot machine operators are publicly traded as well like Churchill Downs (CHDN), Penn National Gaming (PENN), and Empire Resorts(NYNY). Then, there are the Companies which supply these gaming operators - International Game Technologies (IGT), Bally Technologies (BYI), and WMS Industries (WMS).

Or, you could just go after investments in all things vice - gaming, tobacco, and firearms - as described in my article from February of last year - Indulge Your Vices.

Full disclosure: No positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post. .

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 24, 2009

1 Comment

Buy nexium without prescription, Apple's stock is fast approaching its 52-week high of $177.50 set almost exactly 1-yar ago and seems within striking distance of its all-time high valuation near $200. Certified nexium, I wrote at the beginning of the year about Apple's intrinsic value and recommended buying the stock when it hit $89/share amid rumors of Steve Jobs' declining health and Apple's inability to continue to make hit products. The stock has appreciated almost 90% since and it would seem a good time to revisit the Company's valuation, nexium internet. Nexium australia, My method of determining whether or not a stock is trading at a "value" is to determine the market's implied valuation. Rather than attempt to model and predict a company's operating performance, nexium without prescription, Nexium online sales, I use the current market value to back into implied growth rates. Then, I try to make a decision as far as how realistic the market implied growth rate actually is, buy nexium without prescription. In the end, order nexium in us, Buy nexium on internet, we retail investor without the ability to control the company's we invest in are merely trying to determine reasonable prices at which to "buy growth."

Calculating Apple's Market Implied Growth Rate

Step 1: Excess asset value
The foundation for a stock's value is the intrinsic value of the Company's assets. Not all of the Company's assets are distributable, lowest price for nexium. Nexium drug, Obviously, some baseline level of assets are necessary in order for the Company to operate as going concern, nexium online without a prescription. Nexium pill, As such, we'll leave long term assets alone and focus instead on current assets and working capital, buy nexium us. Buy nexium without prescription, As of June 27, 2009, Apple reported negative net working capital (exclusive of cash) of -$5.8 billion. Buy nexium from us, This implies that the Company is able to generate cash through its operations. As such, lowest price nexium, Fda approved nexium, it is possible that the company could finance its growth through operations and this would mean that, as a going concern, nexium prices, Compare nexium prices, Apple has no immediate need for cash on its balance sheet. Thus, nexium prescription, Nexium online, the $24.3 billion in cash and short term equivalents on the Company's balance sheet is effectively distributable.

To be conservative, get nexium, Cost nexium, however, let's discount this cash, nexium pills. After all, management has shown no intention of distributing cash to shareholders and as long as this value held at Apple, there is risk to investor's ability to realize it, buy nexium without prescription. Cheap nexium overnight delivery, Most conservatively, Apple should hold enough cash to cover the entirety of its liabilities in excess of other current assets, online pharmacy nexium. Buy cheapest nexium, This implies $11.4 billion of the $24.3 billion should be reserved. Thus, purchase nexium, Generic nexium cheap, Apple's excess distributable asset value is between $12.9 billion and $24.3 billion.

Step 2: Value of Cash Flows
Now, nexium from india, Nexium sale, we begin a "reverse" DCF analysis on Apple. Buy nexium without prescription, Over the trailing twelve months, Apple has generated free cash flow (defined for simplicity as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) of $10.3 billion.

At zero growth and a 12% discount rate, nexium uk, Buy nexium from india, the present value of cash flows is worth $85.5 billion.

At zero growth, nexium without a prescription, Canadian nexium, Apple's cash flows in addition to excess distributable asset value would be somewhere between $85.5 billion and $109.8 billion.

This implies upwards of a 27.5% downside to Apple's current valuation ($151.5 billion market cap) if it growth were to stall indefinitely, nexium buy drug. Cheap nexium without prescription, Step 3: Market implied growth rate
This is where the analysis can get tricky. I typically, like to make the simplifying assumption that most company's will have about 5-years of additional growth before slowing to a growth rate closer to GDP (2-3%), buy nexium without prescription.

Assuming that Apple will mature in five years and reach a baseline 2% growth rate, nexium price, Nexium purchase, the 5-year implied growth which would justify Apple's current $151.5 billion market cap would be 14%.

Does 14% seem like a reasonable year-over-year cash flow growth rate for Apple's next five years. That would be the "over/under" necessary if you're willing to invest new money in Apple today, find cheap nexium. Order nexium on internet, Next time someone tells you Apple is "fairly valued," you'll know they don't think significant performance beyond this level is likely, buy nexium on line.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing..

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

Buy Wellbutrin Sr Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at August 22, 2009

Leave a Reply

Buy wellbutrin sr without prescription, The S&P is over the magical 1,000 barrier and things are feeling exuberant in the stock markets again. But, real wellbutrin sr without prescription, Wellbutrin sr sales, could this just be a false start. It seems some pretty smart bloggers are starting to sound the "come back to earth bell." Here's my run down of some of the best and most interesting articles I've read this week, purchase wellbutrin sr online. Find cheap wellbutrin sr online,

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns warns that consumer spending could be weak for years.

Naked Capitalism echoes this sentiment and gives some reasons for why we should expect a pullback at some point in the near future.

James Hamilton of EconBrowser asks us whether the glass is half empty or half full featuring two charts plotting our recent rebound vs, find discount wellbutrin sr online. rebounds of various other bear markets, buy wellbutrin sr without prescription. Wellbutrin sr in australia, (For those who didn't realize, in 1930, discount wellbutrin sr no rx, Buy no rx wellbutrin sr, the Dow rallied 51% about 100 days after the bottom during the Great Depression only to fall further and deeper for the next two years.)*

* Source material for the EconBrowser Post can be found on Doug Short's original post and Calculated Risk's rebuttal.

It seems, order wellbutrin sr cheap online, Wellbutrin sr information, however, that the popular media and policy experts are seeing signs that the recovery has begun, buy cheap wellbutrin sr online. Buy wellbutrin sr from canada, Is our biggest problem now inflation.

Reuters reports that the Fed may not be able to hold rates low enough to stimulate the economy and fight inflation at the same time.

MarketWatch reports that the IMF believes the recovery has begun but that the path to growth will be slow.

ZachStocks provides his thoughts on Ben Bernanke's recent comments on the returning health of the economy.

Chad Brand of Peridot Capitalist looks at how inflation may help us improve our deficit numbers in lieu of increased taxes.*

* I may disagree a bit with Chad's analysis, wellbutrin sr india. Buy wellbutrin sr without prescription, He uses Debt-to-GDP as a measure of financial health. Where to order wellbutrin sr, This, however, wellbutrin sr tablet, Order discount wellbutrin sr, ignores that there's still some nominal amount of debt thatwill need to be repaid. Granted, best price wellbutrin sr, Wellbutrin sr order, one assumes that higher GDP (inflated or not) creates higher tax revenues, but then, wellbutrin sr generic, Buy wellbutrin sr online australia, why haven't we managed to reduce debt on a nominal basis.

On a side note, where to buy wellbutrin sr, Pharmacy wellbutrin sr, the current health reform debate going on in Washington DC and at town hall meetings around the nation is a very important topic to me and I would like to do my part in helping people get informed. So, wellbutrin sr online cheap, Buy wellbutrin sr once daily, this week, I've collected some great posts on healthcare in America, cheapest generic wellbutrin sr. No rx wellbutrin sr, Please take some time to read them.

Income inequality and healthcare - Eliot Spitzer

An Honest look at American Healthcare vs, order cheap wellbutrin sr online. Wellbutrin sr no online prescription, the NHS - The Economist

Healthcare reform in steps - The Economist

The Health Insurance Program Reality Check

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