My Investments
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Buy viagra plus without prescription, It's been a while and for that I apologize. Truth be told, order cheap viagra plus online, Viagra plus no rx required, I had gotten my portfolio almost fully invested by mid-last year. And, no prescription viagra plus, Viagra plus no prescription, as the stock intense rally we've seen in stocks through 2009 has turned flat since the new year, I've been much less aggressive with my personal portfolio and as such have had a lot less to say, viagra plus cheap price. Lowest price for viagra plus, Though, for those of you who follow my Covestor account, buy viagra plus, Overnight viagra plus, you'll know that I have not been completely out of the markets. I'm increasingly interested in companies which do the bulk of their business internationally as I believe this is a good way to capitalize on foreign growth while being constrained with access only to U.S, tablet viagra plus. exchanges, buy viagra plus without prescription. Lowest price viagra plus, (By the way, does any know any good online brokerages which allow you to trade stocks internationally?)
Universal Electronic Payment System (UEPS)
UEPS is a financial transaction system offered by Net1 which utilizes its patented Funds Transfer System and secure smart cards to provide real-time but offline payment solutions for un-banked/under-banked populations, viagra plus canada. Viagra plus us, These cards store all necessary information - available funds, user identity, viagra plus without a prescription, Buy viagra plus online without prescription, etc. - and allows for transactions to take place without a connection to a host mainframe, purchase viagra plus online. Cheap viagra plus tablet, As such, the cards are particularly useful to countries with under developed infrastructure, viagra plus free sample. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As you may have guessed, Net1 does most of its business in developing countries, primarily South Africa, where it provides cards and point of sale equipment to governments which use the cards as a medium to distribute grants and other social welfare payments. Canada viagra plus, Investment Strengths
- Proven, cost effective technology serving a large niche - Unlike traditional debit cards or credit cards, order viagra plus from canada, Buy no rx viagra plus, UEPS offers a proprietary technology which does not require always on connection to a primary host or even a bank account. Data is stored on the card and information transferred at the point of sale.
- Adoption reaching critical mass - The Company has long been used by the South African Social Security Administration to distribute entitlement payments to citizens and Net1 has recently leveraged this success into a national contract with Ghana as well as a roll out of its technology in Iraq.
- Operating leverage and free cash flow generation - The Company's equipment and cards are generally paid for by national governments which have chosen its system, buy viagra plus lowest price. Buy viagra plus online, Further, as additional customers are enrolled and begin using their cards for payments, order viagra plus without prescription, Viagra plus in bangkok, the Company generates incremental transaction fees without significant incremental investment. Operating margins in the transaction processing segment are near 60%.
Investment Risks
- Exposure to South African Social Security Administration Contract - 65% of revenues are currently generated through five provincal contracts with the SASSA, order no rx viagra plus. This contract has been on one-year renewal terms for the last three years as SASSA attempts to bid the contract through a formal RFP process, buy viagra plus without prescription. Find discount viagra plus online, The last RFP process ended almost a year ago without a resolution and Net1's current contract in South Africa is set to expire on March 31, 2010.
- Exposure to South African Rand - The majority of the Company's costs and revenues are denominated in South African Rands, generic viagra plus online. Viagra plus online pharmacy, While exchange rate fluctuations will not have a major impact on cash flow or liquidity, it can have a significant impact on valuation for USD investors, fda approved viagra plus. Discount viagra plus no rx, The Rand is currently trading at 7.65 per USD and has traded in a range from 6 to 12 historically.
- Political Risk - The Company's growth plan relies on entering developing nations with sometimes tenuous governmental structures.
- Technological Risk - While the Company's smart cards and other payment technologies appear to be quite forward thinking, the increasing availability of wireless communications infrastructure and cell phones poses a potential disruptive threat for a motivated competitor.
Quick and Dirty Valuation
Despite guidance of 20% yoy growth in EPS (constant currency) and long term catalysts for significant growth through new market entry internationally, order cheap viagra plus, Buying generic viagra plus, the Company trades at 12.0x P/E and, in fact, buy viagra plus online cheap, Viagra plus without rx, represents a significant discount based on my analysis of PEG which has traditionally approached 1-1.2.
Further, order discount viagra plus online, Viagra plus cheap drug, for a smaller, growing company, buy viagra plus from canada, Order viagra plus no prescription, UEPS generates significant free cash flow. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As defined as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures and investments, the Company has averaged approximately $110 million in free cash flow over its 2008 and 2009 fiscal years good for a 13.75% free cash flow yield. Put differently, buy cheapest viagra plus, Buy cheap viagra plus internet, at no growth and a 10% discount rate this would justify a stock price of ~$24.00/share vs. its current price of $17.65/share. Obviously, with significant headline risk involved in the Company's 65% concentration in South African Social Security payments, this discount rate may not be appropriate.
The Company, however, currently has ~$2.00/share in net net working capital and $3.35/share in cash on hand and management has shown a willingness to redistribute value to shareholders having recently approved a $50 million share buyback to be funded entirely from cash on hand. Netting the entire value of cash out of the shares, the Company's cash yield would actually be closer to 17%, enough to pay back shareholders in less than 6 years if fully redistributed. Is this worth the risk of annual renewals of the South African contracts. I believe so.
Full disclosure: Author is long shares of UEPS at the time of writing..
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Buy imitrex without prescription, Last week, Valero announced the postponement of a major capex project in Port Arthur, a guidance towards a second quarter loss, and a dilutive stock offering. Buy cheap imitrex, Basically, a triple whammy that sent the stock tumbling from $22 to $18, cheap price imitrex, Order imitrex no prescription, a near 18% single day loss.
A lot has been written since about how CEO Bill Klesse and Valero management has mismanaged the business and how this company deserves its well below industry average P/E ratio. The all-knowing Jim Cramer even put Bill on the "Wall of Shame." Is this all an over reaction or was I wrong about my purchase of Valero earlier in the year, find imitrex online. Buy imitrex without prescription, Is Valero not truly a value, but a dreaded value trap, imitrex online stores. Discount imitrex without prescription, One positive note with regards to last week's bomb was that Valero was able to issue shares to the market at $18, establishing a relatively acceptable floor for share value relative to its lows for the year, cheapest generic imitrex.
The decision to issue shares at $18 per share is, however, a pretty damning data point, buy imitrex without prescription. Cheap imitrex, Management has bought back nearly $9 billion of shares over the last three years at prices near $60 per share and this most recent offering is all but an admittance that they mismanaged their capital allocations. That being said, buy imitrex internet, Imitrex online sales, a year ago, these moves were being lauded as shareholder friendly and the right way to return value to shareholders, imitrex sales. Canadian pharmacy imitrex, At the very least, we know that management has in the past been shareholder friendly (probably to a fault) during flush times, buy imitrex from canada. Buy imitrex in us, As far as operations go, the fact that Valero has managed to lose money due in part to downtime at refining facilities as well as lagging demand for diesel and poor sour crude margins this quarter is worrisome, imitrex from india. Buy imitrex without prescription, This will require closer attention going forward, particularly if other refiners show an ability to turn profits over the last quarter. Imitrex information, My original thesis on refining was that refined product demand ought to pick up before oil prices and as a result provide a synthetic "long oil" position in my portfolio. Unfortunately, buy imitrex no prescription required, Get imitrex, it seems that oil futures have once again run ahead of fundamental demand (at least relative to US demand).
Strategically, imitrex online without a prescription, Imitrex free sample, I believe Valero is on the right track in this downturn. It has reigned in capex, find imitrex on internet, Imitrex discount, but continues to look to use its industry leading position to find ways to improve the business' competitiveness. It's the largest petroleum refiner in the United States, but it hasn't been complacent expanding into biofuels and making a move into Europe, buy imitrex without prescription. As the market for fuel and distillates returns, approved imitrex pharmacy, Imitrex pharmacy, this will only help to ensure that Valero stays on the cutting edge and continues to provide industry leading refining services.
While all the above are important to unlocking value at Valero, online pharmacy imitrex, Imitrex no rx, my Valero investment thesis is more an asset value play than simply a bet on improving refining margins and that hasn't changed. Even if you agree with Jim Cramer and other bears out there that say that Valero management has no idea how to run a refiner, cheap imitrex on internet, Canadian imitrex, the assets the Company owns are worth something. According to the estimates I did in the post linked above, cheap imitrex no rx, Free imitrex, I believe them to be worth at a minimum $12/share and more reasonably $25/share if liquidated. Buy imitrex without prescription, Long term, as the industry rebounds and demand returns, these assets are probably worth significantly more. For a patient investor, cheap generic imitrex, Purchase imitrex without prescription, this asset value as well as Valero's continued support of a relatively generous dividend (>3%) should provide reassurance when the rest of the world seems to disagree.
The key to value investing is to invest with conviction when the rest of the market doesn't seem to agree, real imitrex without prescription. Order imitrex no prescription required, Market oscillations and over reactions are a source of opportunity for continued purchasing and dollar cost averaging. Easier said than done, order imitrex on internet. While I'm not selling my shares into the storm, I still find myself a bit shaken by the recent revelations at Valero, buy imitrex without prescription. Imitrex overnight shipping, Only time will tell if Valero is truly a value or value trap. But, imitrex online pharmacy, Imitrex in australia, I'm willing to wait.
Disclosure: Long shares of VLO at the time of writing, imitrex pill. .
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Buy Strattera Without Prescription
Buy strattera without prescription, As with the rest of the market, GE's stock has rallied significantly off its March closing low ($6.66, 3/5/09). Maybe more comforting, online strattera, Strattera cheapest price, the stock's now seems to have firmly developed support above $10 per share. While not significant from a fundamental stand point, generic strattera online. No rx strattera, $10 stocks are sometimes a key threshold for certain mutual funds or a significant psychological threshold for many retail investors. I mentioned in a previous post about GE's good fortune after surprisingly poor headlines (a dividend cut and the loss of its sterling credit rating) that the stock may no longer be within the risk tolerance of its traditional investor base - conservative, cheap strattera pill, Cheap strattera pharmacy, income oriented investors. GE's stock, however, should be very compelling to a new set of investors - value investors.
Crude GE Cash Flow Valuation
GE Cash Flow from Operating Activities was reported as $19.1 billion in 2008, buy strattera without prescription. This includes $2.4 billion dividend from GECS which we can conservatively assume will be zero in 2009, cheap strattera no rx. Strattera canada, This would imply that cash generated from its "traditional" businesses - infrastructure, consumer & industrial, strattera drug, Strattera us, and NBC universal - was $16.7 billion in 2008. Net capex in 2008 was $5.0 billion down from an average of approximately $9 billion in 2007 and 2006, order cheap strattera online. No prescription strattera, Crudely speaking, GE ex-GECC had $11.7 billion of free cash flow in 2008, cheapest generic strattera. Buy strattera without prescription, With no growth and a 10% discount rate, this implies $117.0 billion in value. Buy strattera us, GE ex-GECC carries only $13.2 billion in debt leaving $103.8 billion in value for equity. GE's current market cap $115.53 billion @ $10.94 per share, strattera information. Drug strattera, Does this mean GE is fairly valued or maybe even slightly over valued. Maybe, cheapest strattera price. Maybe not, buy strattera without prescription. Strattera vendors, Let's not forget that this crude valuation assumes that the non-GECC business will never grow again AND that the Company will never receive value from the GE Capital business ever again. The flip side of this argument is that there remains some risk that GECC will parasitically poach cash flow from GE's core business for several years in order to service its significant debt burden ($193.7 billion in debt), strattera pills. Strattera overnight delivery, The Company did, however, compare strattera prices, Order strattera without prescription, announce 90% of its 2009 long term debt needs were financed, ostensibly the most difficult year for the Company to raise funds, order strattera no prescription. Strattera malaysia, Some may also point out that GE's infrastructure and NBC units are not likely to repeat their 2008 performance in 2009. Buy strattera without prescription, Do not forget, however, that a cash flow valuation relies not on short term performance, but long term performance. Using a more representative model, cheap strattera from uk, Lowest price strattera, we could assume that GE's cash flow will decline in 2009 and then return to a growth rate more in line with GDP, very conservatively 2%, pharmacy strattera. Strattera without rx, To target the $117 billion rate, GE's cash flow could fall to $9.6 billion in 2009, strattera australia, Buy discount strattera online, or 18% from 2008's level.
A Confirmation Valuation
I'll admit, buy strattera online australia, Strattera in australia, the discounted cash flow used above is rather crude. As such, strattera for sale, Buy strattera low price, let's use another valuation methodology and try to confirm the conclusions above. We'll break GE's non financial businesses into three segments - infrastructure, consumer & industrial, and NBC.
The GE Infrastructure segments (Technology and Energy) recorded segment profits of $14.2 billion in 2008, buy strattera without prescription. This actually marked a 13% increase of 2007 with growth coming mostly from increased orders in the Energy businesses related to oil and gas, buy strattera canada. Cheap strattera internet, The businesses included in this segment are probably most comparable public comps such as United Technologies (UTX) or classified by Yahoo!Finance as "Conglomerates" which trade at a 9x multiple. Apply this multiple to profits of $14.2 billion and you get a public market valuation of $127.8 billion.
GE Consumer & Industrials business reported $0.4 billion in segment profit in 2008, generic strattera, Strattera in us, down 65% from 2007. The best comp to this business might be Royal Philips Electronics (PHG), strattera overnight, Buy no rx strattera, unfortunately this business actually reported a loss in 2008, a testament to GE's performance in this segment. Philips is included in Yahoo's "Consumer Goods / Electronics Buy strattera without prescription, " segment and has an average P/E of 18. Thus, applying a similar valuation to this segment, we get a $6.4 billion valuation.
NBC/Universal reported segment profit of $3.1 billion in 2008 roughly flat with profit in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Disney (DIS), owner of the ABC media network and the Disney studio entertainment business is likely the best public comp to NBC/Universal (the NBC TV and Radio network and Universal Studios). Disney trades at a 9.55 P/E which would implie a value of $29.6 billion for NBC Universal.
In sum, we get a valuation of $163.8 billion for each individual GE business segment excluding the Capital Finance segment. Segment profit does not include income tax provision, interest and other financial charges, and corporate overhead. To be conservative, we'll attribute 100% of corporate overhead to the core segments ($2.7 billion), buy strattera without prescription. Since Capital Finance made up 32% of profit in 2008, we'll only take 68% of income taxes (.68*$3.4 billion = $2.3 billion). And, we'll assume the majorit of interest and financing charges are a result of GE Finance and thus will not include it in the valuation of the other businesses. Our blended earnings mutiple on the segment valuation of $163.8 billion is 9.2x and, thus, we must adjust out 9.2x $5 billion in additional expenses resulting in a total valuation of $117.8 billion. Remarkably close to our valuation in the discounted cash flow above, don't you think.
Conclusion Buy strattera without prescription, From the two valuation strategies used above, we find that GE's stock currently trades at a level which basically assumes zero value for the GE Capital Finance business and potentially no growth in its core business. That is, you can buy GE Capital Finance and as well as any growth in one of America's leading consumer products, infrastructure and media businesses for free. It would seem to me that GE shares continue to offer a very compelling value proposition to new investors.
Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of GE at the time of writing. No other positions in stocks mentioned in this post. .
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S&P downgraded GE Buy ultracet without prescription, from AAA to AA+ today. Ultracet professional, Moody's has not followed suit yet, but likely will soon, order ultracet on internet. Cheapest ultracet online, The uncertainty surrounding a dividend cut and ratings downgrade have caused investors to flee from GE stock over the last month and brought to lows not seen since 1991. Yet, find discount ultracet online, Ultracet online sales, despite the coming to fruition of a dividend cut (GE will be reducing dividends by 66% from 31 cents to 10 cents in 2H 2009) and now a ratings downgrade, GE's stock jumped 13% today.
In fact, generic ultracet online, Find ultracet without prescription, GE's stock is up over 30% this week and has rebounded swiftly from its lows. What gives, ultracet purchase.
It seems that with the uncertainty removed for the time being, investors are finally concentrating on the fact that GE's core infrastructure business continues to perform and that the financial unit has generally outperformed its peers, buy ultracet without prescription. Cheap ultracet, While the financial unit's $515 billion in debt ($220 of which will mature in the next 4 years) and questions over the true valuation of its $660 billion in book assets remain worrisome, it would seem that the outlook on GE's capital costs and cash flow needs has stabilized, order ultracet no rx. Ultracet prescription, Yes, dividends will be lower for the time being and maybe for several years as the Company right sizes its leverage, order ultracet from canada, Order no rx ultracet, but the dividend investors who care have fled the stock and an annualized 40 cent dividend will provide a more than adequate 4+% dividend for new investors.
The ratings cut which usually increases capital costs will not likely cause any material changes for GE who, order discount ultracet online, Ultracet, as a regular bond issuer, has had to offer debt at a premium to its ratings for years, buy cheap ultracet. Drug ultracet online purchase, Furthermore, near term risk of a collateral call in excess of $8 billion due to a ratings downgrade below A+2 are likely minimal particularly given how slowly the ratings agencies seem to move, cheap ultracet without prescription. Buy cheapest ultracet online, All clear to go long GE. Significant risks from further economic deterioration and continued frozen credit markets likely put GE out of the risk tolerance of its previous investor base - income oriented retirees - but I for one have liked and continue to like the risk reward being offered by this super large cap's stock, ultracet sale. Ultracet discount, Full disclosure: Author is long shares of GE at the time of writing.. Sale ultracet. Cheapest ultracet. Ultracet cost. Cheap ultracet from usa. Ultracet no rx. Compare ultracet prices. Ultracet pharmacy online. Buy ultracet from us. Buy ultracet online australia. Order ultracet in canada. Buy cheapest ultracet on line. Tablet ultracet. Ultracet no prescription. Drug ultracet. Order ultracet. Discount ultracet online. Ultracet from canada. Online ultracet. Order ultracet in us.
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Buy celebrex without prescription, It seems that people can't help but go after the successful. Moreover, celebrex australia, Buy celebrex without prescription, I'm sick and tired of all the sensationalist title lines that stock market prognosticators can't help themselves with. For example, buy celebrex lowest price, Find celebrex, this one - "Did Google Just Gag?"
ComScore, a notoriously poor predictor of overall performance, find cheap celebrex, Celebrex purchase, released January 2009 U.S. search share data.
Yes, Google lost a bit of market share but remains 3 times as popular as Yahoo for search in the United States, buy celebrex without prescription. In the article mentioned above, buy celebrex canada, Celebrex online review, the author notes that Yahoo has gained share from 19.7% in August to the current 21.0%. Of course, find celebrex no prescription required, Buy generic celebrex online, the "Fool" fails to note that Google's share in August was 63.0%, the very same as it is today, celebrex online stores. Order celebrex no prescription, So, long term, order celebrex cheap online, Celebrex online without prescription, Yahoo seems to be taking share not from Google, but from the rest of the industry.
This data also doesn't even begin to elucidate on world wide market share where Yahoo and Baidu are duking it out for second place in search advertising and where Google continues to hold #1 or #2 position in most major markets, buy celebrex in us. Order celebrex no prescription required, In fact, despite trailing Baidu in China and Yahoo in Japan, order celebrex from us, Approved celebrex pharmacy, Google's retains top status with 33% of all Asia-pacific search. Buy celebrex without prescription, To put things in perspective, Google derives 50% of its revenue from international sources while Yahoo gains just 24% of its revenues outside the United States. Don't forget, buy celebrex online without prescription, Celebrex india, 50% of Google's business is greater than the 75% of Yahoo's business inside the United States. What do you think that means world wide?
Google is a search power house that has become an advertising monster as well, celebrex for sale. Celebrex, It's reach across sites and partner networks is derived not just from search success but from success serving advertisements with better relevance and higher conversion rates. Looking at a 0.5% decline in the proportion of queries in a market that was up 7% quarter over quarter overall is no cause for alarm and shouldn't make for headline grabbing news, purchase celebrex no rx. Celebrex online sale, Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of Google at the time of writing. . Celebrex no prescription. Get celebrex. Celebrex online sales. Canadian celebrex. Celebrex pharmacy online. Lowest price for celebrex. Online pharmacy celebrex. Buy celebrex us. Celebrex online. Buying generic celebrex. Celebrex medication. Purchase celebrex online. Buy celebrex low price. Celebrex cheap drug.
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I wrote earlier today about why I believe Apple will be fine Buy remeron without prescription, despite Steve Jobs' surprise leave of absence. And, cheap remeron tablets, Cheap remeron tablet, overall, it seems investors agree (at least at current market value) with the stock falling just 2% after trading down nearly 7% in after-markets the night before, remeron online cheap. Remeron without rx, Despite this, I've noticed many fear mongers out there advocating the all out demise of Apple with no real look towards the stock's valuation, order remeron overnight delivery. Find cheap remeron, The surprise news definitely clouds some of Apple's longterm revenue visibility (just ask retailers what happens when investors are uneasy about the future), but this doesn't necessitate a meltdown in share price if the valuation adequately discounts worries about the future.
Apple's share price already implies a near doomsday scenario
Apple currently has $27.54/share of cash and short term investments, remeron sale. Remeron alternative, Net working capital currently creates $4.38/share of cash. Assuming a wind down of this business would require a working capital reserve of $5/share to pay down the negative net working capital, this leaves approximately $22/share of cash on the balance sheet which can be considered "distributable" to shareholders, buy remeron without prescription. Given today's closing price of $83/share, drug remeron online purchase, Purchase remeron, that would imply that the value of Apple's future cash flows is just $83 - $22 = $61/share.
From the above table, remeron prescription, Get remeron, you can see that Apple's share price currently implies two highly pessimistic scenarios.
- Free cash flows will immediately decline 27% from last year and never grow again
- Free cash flows will fall 5% annually until it finally shuts its doors
In the less severe, remeron cheap, Remeron rx, but still rather conservative case that Apple's free cash flow falls 15% in the year and never grow again, we determine a current value for the stock at $89.72/share, buy cheapest remeron online. Buying remeron online, And, if the management without Steve Jobs manages exactly as sucessfully as it did in the last fiscal year and doesn't grow the Company ever again, buy remeron without prescription, Lowest price for remeron, the stock ought to fetch $101.67. Buy remeron without prescription, It would seem that at current share prices, as long as Apple can maintain itself as a going concern, investors are getting an opportunity to not only buy the Company's potential growth for free, but also receive a margin of safety in the Company's operational results in excess of 15%.
Is growth even possible without Steve Jobs?
Apple has momentum in its personal computer business, an entrenched and dominant market share in personal media players, the top platform in the budding mobile computing business, and ancillary products (AppleTV and iTunes, in particular) which can be leveraged both for growth and tightening its grip on its consumers through interdependence on its products. Furthermore, cheap remeron without prescription, Order remeron on internet, recent moves by Apple such as the hiring of Mark Papermaster and a slew of chip designers, signals a pipeline of product ideas that is far from running dry, remeron no prescription. Buy remeron online cheap, What investors should worry about
The management team which succeeds Steve Jobs is first and foremost responsible for managing the business. Innovation and vision will come to a patient management team that does not waste money on fruitless "investments" and acquisitions as they may be tempted to do (*cough* yahoo *cough*), remeron discount. Lowest price remeron, There ought to be two priorities:
- Maintain run rate free cash flows similar to those of 2007 and 2008
- Conserve and build upon cash and short term equivalents
If these two conditions are not met, then shareholders should not give the Company the benefit of the doubt and demand an immediate return of excess cash and short term investments, remeron internet. Find remeron without prescription, I believe Apple's board of directors and current executive team realizes this and is more than capable of continuing executing Apple's strategy producing high-end personal computing products. And, buy remeron low price, Order cheap remeron online, as such, believe that Apple's stock is also trading at a potentially attractive discount despite worries over succession, remeron malaysia. Buy cheap remeron online, Full disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing (and considering adding to my position). Remeron buy online. Overnight remeron. Cheap remeron in usa. Remeron generic. Best price for remeron. Canadian remeron. Buy remeron on internet. Cheap remeron online. Buy remeron us. Remeron sales.
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