Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at February 28, 2010

Buy viagra plus without prescription, It's been a while and for that I apologize. Truth be told, order cheap viagra plus online, Viagra plus no rx required, I had gotten my portfolio almost fully invested by mid-last year. And, no prescription viagra plus, Viagra plus no prescription, as the stock intense rally we've seen in stocks through 2009 has turned flat since the new year, I've been much less aggressive with my personal portfolio and as such have had a lot less to say, viagra plus cheap price. Lowest price for viagra plus, Though, for those of you who follow my Covestor account, buy viagra plus, Overnight viagra plus, you'll know that I have not been completely out of the markets. I'm increasingly interested in companies which do the bulk of their business internationally as I believe this is a good way to capitalize on foreign growth while being constrained with access only to U.S, tablet viagra plus. exchanges, buy viagra plus without prescription. Lowest price viagra plus, (By the way, does any know any good online brokerages which allow you to trade stocks internationally?)

Universal Electronic Payment System (UEPS)
UEPS is a financial transaction system offered by Net1 which utilizes its patented Funds Transfer System and secure smart cards to provide real-time but offline payment solutions for un-banked/under-banked populations, viagra plus canada. Viagra plus us, These cards store all necessary information - available funds, user identity, viagra plus without a prescription, Buy viagra plus online without prescription, etc. - and allows for transactions to take place without a connection to a host mainframe, purchase viagra plus online. Cheap viagra plus tablet, As such, the cards are particularly useful to countries with under developed infrastructure, viagra plus free sample. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As you may have guessed, Net1 does most of its business in developing countries, primarily South Africa, where it provides cards and point of sale equipment to governments which use the cards as a medium to distribute grants and other social welfare payments. Canada viagra plus, Investment Strengths

Proven, cost effective technology serving a large niche - Unlike traditional debit cards or credit cards, order viagra plus from canada, Buy no rx viagra plus, UEPS offers a proprietary technology which does not require always on connection to a primary host or even a bank account. Data is stored on the card and information transferred at the point of sale.

Adoption reaching critical mass - The Company has long been used by the South African Social Security Administration to distribute entitlement payments to citizens and Net1 has recently leveraged this success into a national contract with Ghana as well as a roll out of its technology in Iraq.

Operating leverage and free cash flow generation - The Company's equipment and cards are generally paid for by national governments which have chosen its system, buy viagra plus lowest price. Buy viagra plus online, Further, as additional customers are enrolled and begin using their cards for payments, order viagra plus without prescription, Viagra plus in bangkok, the Company generates incremental transaction fees without significant incremental investment. Operating margins in the transaction processing segment are near 60%.

Investment Risks

Exposure to South African Social Security Administration Contract - 65% of revenues are currently generated through five provincal contracts with the SASSA, order no rx viagra plus. This contract has been on one-year renewal terms for the last three years as SASSA attempts to bid the contract through a formal RFP process, buy viagra plus without prescription. Find discount viagra plus online, The last RFP process ended almost a year ago without a resolution and Net1's current contract in South Africa is set to expire on March 31, 2010.

Exposure to South African Rand - The majority of the Company's costs and revenues are denominated in South African Rands, generic viagra plus online. Viagra plus online pharmacy, While exchange rate fluctuations will not have a major impact on cash flow or liquidity, it can have a significant impact on valuation for USD investors, fda approved viagra plus. Discount viagra plus no rx, The Rand is currently trading at 7.65 per USD and has traded in a range from 6 to 12 historically.

Political Risk - The Company's growth plan relies on entering developing nations with sometimes tenuous governmental structures.

Technological Risk - While the Company's smart cards and other payment technologies appear to be quite forward thinking, the increasing availability of wireless communications infrastructure and cell phones poses a potential disruptive threat for a motivated competitor.

Quick and Dirty Valuation
Despite guidance of 20% yoy growth in EPS (constant currency) and long term catalysts for significant growth through new market entry internationally, order cheap viagra plus, Buying generic viagra plus, the Company trades at 12.0x P/E and, in fact, buy viagra plus online cheap, Viagra plus without rx, represents a significant discount based on my analysis of PEG which has traditionally approached 1-1.2.

Further, order discount viagra plus online, Viagra plus cheap drug, for a smaller, growing company, buy viagra plus from canada, Order viagra plus no prescription, UEPS generates significant free cash flow. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As defined as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures and investments, the Company has averaged approximately $110 million in free cash flow over its 2008 and 2009 fiscal years good for a 13.75% free cash flow yield. Put differently, buy cheapest viagra plus, Buy cheap viagra plus internet, at no growth and a 10% discount rate this would justify a stock price of ~$24.00/share vs. its current price of $17.65/share. Obviously, with significant headline risk involved in the Company's 65% concentration in South African Social Security payments, this discount rate may not be appropriate.

The Company, however, currently has ~$2.00/share in net net working capital and $3.35/share in cash on hand and management has shown a willingness to redistribute value to shareholders having recently approved a $50 million share buyback to be funded entirely from cash on hand. Netting the entire value of cash out of the shares, the Company's cash yield would actually be closer to 17%, enough to pay back shareholders in less than 6 years if fully redistributed. Is this worth the risk of annual renewals of the South African contracts. I believe so.

Full disclosure: Author is long shares of UEPS at the time of writing..

Curious Investments, My Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at November 5, 2009

3 Comments

Buy viagra super active+ without prescription, In my prior post, "Allied Capital Goes from Value Trap to Deep Value," I made the point that the Ares/Allied acquisition created a potentially interesting merger arbitrage opportunity. As astutely pointed out by commenter BeauZeau at Seeking Alpha, buy viagra super active+ in us, Viagra super active+ internet, the merger arbitrage opportunity is not quite as large as I portrayed.

In a classic merger arbitrage, free viagra super active+, Viagra super active+ tablets, the investor ought to short the acquiror (ARCC) and buy the target (ALD). That is because, compare viagra super active+ prices online, Viagra super active+ free delivery, assuming that the deal closes, the target and acquiror shares are now representative of the same asset, buy discount viagra super active+. Find viagra super active+, Consequently, any price discrepancy between the two stocks represents a fundamental disconnect with underlying value*, compare viagra super active+ prices. In the case of ARCC and ALD, I posited that the proposed exchange rate of .325 ARCC shares for each ALD share creates an opportunity based on current closing prices, buy viagra super active+ without prescription. Cheap viagra super active+ no prescription, *Those familiar with the concept of arbitrage will see my description of merger arbitrage as a flawed definition of arbitrage. Officially, viagra super active+ in uk, Order viagra super active+ in canada, merger arbitrage is a risk arbitrage and is not the same as a traditional riskless arbitrage opportunity. I intend to write a follow up post for those who have less experience with this concept later this week, buy viagra super active+ on line. Viagra super active+ purchase,

At Ares' closing price of $10.46/share, ALD shareholders would be entitled to approximately $3.40/share in value, buy cheapest viagra super active+ online. Buy viagra super active+ without prescription, This represents a 7.9% premium versus ALD's closing price of $3.15. Buying viagra super active+ online, In a classic merger arbitrage, however, generic viagra super active+ cheap, Discount viagra super active+ without prescription, shorting ARCC would require the investor to pay upwards of two quarters worth of dividends (the ARCC/ALD merger is expected to close by Q1 2010). ARCC currently pays a 13.4% annual dividend yield, online pharmacy viagra super active+. Viagra super active+ australia, Two dividends would equate to roughly 6.7% in yield. As such, buy viagra super active+ once daily, Viagra super active+ sales, the true spread between ALD and ARCC is closer to 1% than the 7.9% that is initially seen when only comparing stock prices.

Merger arbitrage does contain some risk, buy viagra super active+ without prescription. The deal may not close in time which could result in an arbitrageur missing more of ARCC's dividends, best price viagra super active+. Viagra super active+ side effects, The deal may not close at all which could have completely unpredictable results on stock movements, thus destroying the pair trade (short ARCC/long ALD) opportunity, viagra super active+ cheap. Viagra super active+ online stores, As such, the minute 1% spread is a good sign that the market is pricing a near definite probability of this transaction closing and believes just 1% in return over the next 6 months is adequate compensation for the risk, viagra super active+ overnight delivery. Cheap viagra super active+ without prescription, In this sense, a classic merger arbitrage of ALD and ARCC seems much less worthwhile to us retail investors who don't have massive balance sheets to throw at small percentage gains, viagra super active+ drug. Buy viagra super active+ without prescription, Despite this, I believe the initial thesis of my prior post on the opportunity to purchase Allied Capital stock holds true. Buy generic viagra super active+ online, Prior to this acquisition, Allied Capital's auditors were issuing going concern warnings, buy viagra super active+ canada. Cheapest generic viagra super active+, With the balance sheet and liquidity provided by Ares, Allied Capital's undervalued portfolio definitely looks much more attractive, viagra super active+ prices. Viagra super active+ no online prescription, That being said, on a risk adjusted basis, find cheap viagra super active+ online, Viagra super active+ alternative, it would seem much more prudent to outright purchase ARCC at this juncture as you would be "guaranteed" dividends over the next few quarters and you won't have to worry about the risk of the transaction not being confirmed.

Full disclosure: Author has no positions in the stocks mentioned in this post, buy viagra super active+ cheap. Buy viagra super active+ from us, . Viagra super active+ india. Viagra super active+ for order.

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at October 5, 2009

1 Comment

I highlighted Isis Pharmaceuticals a few weeks ago Buy cialis soft tabs without prescription, believing that a sell-off causing a price decline from $19 to $16/share was a prime opportunity to buy a potential high-growth business. Buy cheapest cialis soft tabs online, It seems, however, best price for cialis soft tabs, Cialis soft tabs price, that my proclamation may not have been entirely correct. And, buy cialis soft tabs from us, Buy cheapest cialis soft tabs, post last week's trading, I've liquidated my position in ISIS, cialis soft tabs professional. Cialis soft tabs in us, Do I still think ISIS could present a tremendous opportunity to invest in next-generation biotechnology. I do, cheap cialis soft tabs tablet. But, with markets seemingly reaching a top and real cash flow in ISIS years away, it's probably better to be safe than sorry, buy cialis soft tabs without prescription. Cheap cialis soft tabs tablets, Moreover, lacking the ability to perform accurate fundamental analysis due to ISIS's place on its growth curve, cialis soft tabs no rx, Purchase cialis soft tabs without prescription, an investor is left only with technical analysis to guide the investment process and, as I will show, cialis soft tabs australia, Buy generic cialis soft tabs online, ISIS's charts no longer paint the profoundly bullish picture they once did. Before I begin, find cialis soft tabs on internet, Cialis soft tabs side effects, I recommend those unfamiliar to read my post on long term technical analysis.

Near-term Daily Chart

Around August 10, cialis soft tabs overnight delivery, Purchase cialis soft tabs no rx, ISIS began a sell off which brought the stock back towards its 50-day moving average (the MA which I believe signals interim trend support). I opportunistically purchased here knowing that I was investing prior to a confirmatory bullish bounce from this pullback, cheap cialis soft tabs. Buy cialis soft tabs without prescription, As such, I've taken the tact that I may be wrong in my intuition and have watched the stock's performance very carefully since this pullback. Canadian pharmacy cialis soft tabs, The stock made a textbook advance after its sell off, however, buy cheap cialis soft tabs, Order cialis soft tabs, this was on week volume and ultimately re-encountered resistance at its 50-day moving average. For some, buy cialis soft tabs us, Cialis soft tabs from canada, this may have been enough to force a sale, but I am a long term investor and am not averse to dollar cost averaging should I prove to have entered a stock too early, no prescription cialis soft tabs. Cialis soft tabs pills, So, how does one determine whether to purchase more in hopes of dollar cost averaging or to sell and preserve capital for another day, buy cialis soft tabs cheap. Buy cialis soft tabs online, Long Term Weekly Chart

Above, we take a look at ISIS' 3-year weekly price chart, order cialis soft tabs no prescription required. Here, you'll see that ISIS has been on an up trend since bottoming in mid-October of 2008, buy cialis soft tabs without prescription. Cheap cialis soft tabs from usa, Moreover, through these three years, compare cialis soft tabs prices, Find cialis soft tabs online, the stock has held a rather strong uptrend which has never breached its 200-week moving average. In recent weeks, get cialis soft tabs, Buy no rx cialis soft tabs, however, ISIS has both breached its recent up trend and, order cialis soft tabs cheap online, Cialis soft tabs pharmacy, as of last week, has once again breached its 50-week moving average, cheap cialis soft tabs pharmacy. Find discount cialis soft tabs, It would seem that the stock is more likely in a high-level consolidation phase as opposed to ready to resume its bullish trend. As such, buy cheapest cialis soft tabs on line, Cialis soft tabs no online prescription, a retest of the 200-week moving average is not out of the question especially given the stock's complete lack of any identifiable interim support in its near-term daily chart displayed above this section. With a potential 15-20% additional value at risk, buy discount cialis soft tabs online, I'm not willing to buy additional shares and continue averaging down.

Full Disclosure: Author was previously long shares of ISIS, but no longer holds any shares of the stock.

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at September 15, 2009

3 Comments

MCD9.14.09 Buy levitra jelly without prescription, Above is a 5-year weekly chart for McDonald's (MCD). Levitra jelly in us, As described by David Gordon of The Deipnosophist, buy levitra jelly from india, Levitra jelly cheap price, MCD seems to have entered a hesitation after a strong, multi-year bull run, levitra jelly drug. Buy levitra jelly online australia, Over the last year, however, buy levitra jelly once daily, Buy levitra jelly no rx, a symmetrical triangle seems to have formed which is a type of intermediate term base which is expected to end in a breakout or breakdown, though usually symmetrical triangles signal a brief pause before the continuation of the primary trend, levitra jelly malaysia. Order cheap levitra jelly online, But, I'll leave the discussion of technical analysis for another post, cheap levitra jelly overnight delivery. Levitra jelly uk, If you're interested in an extensive analysis of MCD's chart patterns do follow the above link to David's post.

While this technical strength as well as McDonald's 3.7% dividend are tempting to me, I am typically reticent to invest in a stock which has had such a profound bullish move in just the last few years, buy levitra jelly without prescription. Truth is, generic levitra jelly, Levitra jelly professional, however, McDonald's reached its current valuation levels in 2007 and it would seem that the stock's nearly two year long hesistation may have given more than enough time for earnings and cash flow to come in line with market perception, levitra jelly overnight. Cheap levitra jelly on internet, Let's take a deeper look.

MCD Relative Metrics

On a relative basis, fda approved levitra jelly, Levitra jelly online sale, McDonald's seems to trade roughly in line with peers on a price to earnings basis. Admittedly, buy levitra jelly from us, Cheap levitra jelly from canada, this is not a very large sample size, but it does represent the market's most comparable competitors, generic levitra jelly cheap. Buy levitra jelly without prescription, As a franchiser which does not rely on its own assets to generate cash flow, I would expect most of these types of businesses to trade at a premium to book value and, as a result, I focus more on the P/E numbers. Purchase levitra jelly without prescription, Generally speaking, I believe a mature business with stable earnings like McDonald's should earn a baseline P/E of 10x, levitra jelly online pharmacy. Drug levitra jelly online purchase, 10x earnings would generall be equivalent to the Company's no-growth earnings power value at a standard discount rate of 10%. As such, levitra jelly vendors, Levitra jelly without rx, McDonald's seems to be trading at a slight premium to this which implies that there market is pricing in a modest growth premium.

McDonald's DCF Table

Above, sale levitra jelly, Buy cheapest levitra jelly on line, I'm using my "patented" 5-year to Maturity DCF Model. The growth rates row contains the annualized growth rate for the first five years of the model, buy levitra jelly without prescription. After five years, levitra jelly from india, Levitra jelly approved, the model assumes that the business will "mature" and become a standard 2.5% growth per year type of business. The total value of the DCF is then divided by current shares outstanding to give a valuation table in $/share, buy levitra jelly pills. Buying generic levitra jelly, MCD is currently priced at $54.23/share. The baseline free cash flows that the model grows off of are trailing twelve months operating cash minus capital expenditures, buy levitra jelly on internet. Buy levitra jelly without prescription, What we see is that McDonald's is trading at levels implying essentially no growth when assuming an 8% discount rate. Cheapest generic levitra jelly online, At a more normal 10% discount rate, MCD's current price implies annual growth in excess of 8.0%/year, best price levitra jelly. Real levitra jelly without prescription, Is this reasonable. McDonald's has significant international exposure with over 60% of revenues coming from overseas, order levitra jelly from us. Levitra jelly overnight, As such, realistic long term growth rates are likely in the neighborhood of 4% as opposed to 2.5% and near term (5 years-ish) growth is likely easily in the 5-6% range if not better, cheap levitra jelly from uk. In fact, over the last five years, McDonald's has grown its rolling average five-year free cash flows* at a 10% CAGR, buy levitra jelly without prescription. Purchase levitra jelly without prescription, All told, it would seem that McDonald's while not trading at an extreme value, levitra jelly in us, does offer relatively fair value while also paying a significant dividend and exhibiting technical strength. It would seem that this is a stock worth holding, or possibly even accumulating on weakness as its symmetrical triangle continues to form in anticipation of an upside breakout and continuation of the primary trend. Should the pattern break down, however, I would put in as stop-loss at $50/share and then look to reacquire shares at a true value price below $45/share, preferably closer to $40/share.

* Rolling average five year free cash flows are defined as, for year n, the average of the year n cash flows and the previous four years' free cash flows.

Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of MCD at the time of writing. No positions in other stocks mentioned in this article. .

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 24, 2009

1 Comment

Buy nexium without prescription, Apple's stock is fast approaching its 52-week high of $177.50 set almost exactly 1-yar ago and seems within striking distance of its all-time high valuation near $200. Cheap nexium tablet, I wrote at the beginning of the year about Apple's intrinsic value and recommended buying the stock when it hit $89/share amid rumors of Steve Jobs' declining health and Apple's inability to continue to make hit products. The stock has appreciated almost 90% since and it would seem a good time to revisit the Company's valuation, nexium in us. Nexium no rx, My method of determining whether or not a stock is trading at a "value" is to determine the market's implied valuation. Rather than attempt to model and predict a company's operating performance, nexium professional, Cheap nexium from canada, I use the current market value to back into implied growth rates. Then, I try to make a decision as far as how realistic the market implied growth rate actually is, buy nexium without prescription. In the end, free nexium, Buy nexium on line, we retail investor without the ability to control the company's we invest in are merely trying to determine reasonable prices at which to "buy growth."

Calculating Apple's Market Implied Growth Rate

Step 1: Excess asset value
The foundation for a stock's value is the intrinsic value of the Company's assets. Not all of the Company's assets are distributable, nexium buy drug. Order nexium no prescription required, Obviously, some baseline level of assets are necessary in order for the Company to operate as going concern, purchase nexium online. Nexium uk, As such, we'll leave long term assets alone and focus instead on current assets and working capital, nexium discount. Buy nexium without prescription, As of June 27, 2009, Apple reported negative net working capital (exclusive of cash) of -$5.8 billion. Where to buy nexium, This implies that the Company is able to generate cash through its operations. As such, buy nexium no rx, Cheap nexium no prescription, it is possible that the company could finance its growth through operations and this would mean that, as a going concern, buy cheapest nexium, Cost of nexium, Apple has no immediate need for cash on its balance sheet. Thus, buy cheap nexium online, Nexium from india, the $24.3 billion in cash and short term equivalents on the Company's balance sheet is effectively distributable.

To be conservative, nexium online without a prescription, Order nexium in us, however, let's discount this cash, nexium from canada. After all, management has shown no intention of distributing cash to shareholders and as long as this value held at Apple, there is risk to investor's ability to realize it, buy nexium without prescription. Discount nexium overnight delivery, Most conservatively, Apple should hold enough cash to cover the entirety of its liabilities in excess of other current assets, cheap nexium on internet. Cheapest nexium online, This implies $11.4 billion of the $24.3 billion should be reserved. Thus, cheapest nexium, Find cheap nexium online, Apple's excess distributable asset value is between $12.9 billion and $24.3 billion.

Step 2: Value of Cash Flows
Now, nexium information, Cheap nexium pill, we begin a "reverse" DCF analysis on Apple. Buy nexium without prescription, Over the trailing twelve months, Apple has generated free cash flow (defined for simplicity as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) of $10.3 billion.

At zero growth and a 12% discount rate, generic nexium online, Cheap nexium internet, the present value of cash flows is worth $85.5 billion.

At zero growth, cheapest generic nexium online, Cheap nexium from usa, Apple's cash flows in addition to excess distributable asset value would be somewhere between $85.5 billion and $109.8 billion.

This implies upwards of a 27.5% downside to Apple's current valuation ($151.5 billion market cap) if it growth were to stall indefinitely, cheapest generic nexium. Nexium rx, Step 3: Market implied growth rate
This is where the analysis can get tricky. I typically, like to make the simplifying assumption that most company's will have about 5-years of additional growth before slowing to a growth rate closer to GDP (2-3%), buy nexium without prescription.

Assuming that Apple will mature in five years and reach a baseline 2% growth rate, buy nexium no prescription required, Nexium no online prescription, the 5-year implied growth which would justify Apple's current $151.5 billion market cap would be 14%.

Does 14% seem like a reasonable year-over-year cash flow growth rate for Apple's next five years. That would be the "over/under" necessary if you're willing to invest new money in Apple today, nexium cheap price. Find nexium online, Next time someone tells you Apple is "fairly valued," you'll know they don't think significant performance beyond this level is likely, nexium tablet.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing..