Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at March 19, 2009

Buy celexa without prescription, Dell unveiled their new ultraslim, the Adamo, a few days ago. Purchase celexa online, The new laptop is a 13.4 inch "luxury" portable featuring no optical drive, a long life sealed-in battery, buying generic celexa, Celexa sales, edge-to-edge glass screen, and a solid state hard drive comes at the very affordable starting price of $1999, celexa online sale. Celexa overnight shipping, Does this sound familiar. A MacBook Air, generic celexa online, Buy celexa without prescription, perhaps. To a lesser extent, celexa no prescription, Celexa, the HP Voodoo Envy 133?

One can't fault Dell for wanting to keep up with Apple and HP. HP has maintained its stranglehold on worldwide notebook marketshare for over two years, buy celexa without prescription. In North America, buy celexa once daily, Celexa sale, Dell's "home territory," marketshare has fallen below 2006 levels while Apple and HP continue to capture the bulk of sector growth.

Revenue Performance
Data courtesy of Gridstone Research, approved celexa pharmacy. Cheap celexa from usa, Apple bars represent "Total CPU Revenue"

Dell, which made its name selling low cost computers, canadian celexa, Celexa in uk, has seen its competitive advantages eroded since growth peaked in 2006. As PCs have become increasingly commoditized, cheapest celexa, Purchase celexa without prescription, Dell has not been able to successfully scale its revenue despite a heavily growing market for PCs and notebooks.

Operating Margin

While Apple and HP used new form factors and pioneer case designs with products like the MacBook and Touchsmart lines to defend their margins, Dell has simply watched its operating margins fall from a high of 8.6% in 2006 to barely 6% in 2009.

AAPL Dell HPQ 4 year

Not surprisingly, generic celexa cheap, Buy celexa pills, Dell stock has fallen over 50% in the last four years while HPQ and AAPL both appreciated substantially as optimism about Dell's ability to capitalize on tech sector growth have evaporated and HPQ and AAPL have filled the growth void.

With the American consumer pulling back and even Apple sales waning, this move by Dell seems perplexing at best, buy celexa from us. Celexa buy, Yes, there's a market for high style notebooks, celexa malaysia. Celexa free delivery, But, this is not a product which will move the needle for Dell, tablet celexa. Celexa non prescription, Furthermore, Apple's brand clout is derived from its overall experience - hardware design, celexa bangkok, Buy celexa in us, proprietary OS, and customer service through its retail locations, find celexa. Cheap celexa tablet, PC manufacturers are inherently disadvantaged as the user experience is ultimately commoditized regardless of how pretty a shell is put around the computer. Particularly in a recessionary environment, order celexa online, Drug celexa online purchase, Dell shouldn't be playing follow the leader and instead should be looking at how to add marginal value through design or technological changes to its PCs ala HP's Touchsmart or Vivienne Tam lines which offer style, uniqueness, celexa pharmacy online, Celexa purchase, and a pricepoint significantly closer to $1,000 than $2, sale celexa, Celexa without rx, 000.

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Curious Investments, Market Commentary, Stock Analysis

Buy Benadryl Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at March 10, 2009

1 Comment

Buy benadryl without prescription, Google's stock fell decidedly below the psychologically significant mark of $300 per share today. The stock has fallen 60% overall from its high near $720 and sits near its 2004-2005 prices, benadryl non prescription. Get benadryl, Despite this, Google remains a global leader in search, order benadryl no prescription, Cheap benadryl online, internet advertising, and has its finger on the pulse of innovative web services, buy no rx benadryl. No rx benadryl, The bull cases for Google, which I've written about several times (Google's earnings power and Google's search share), benadryl overnight shipping, Benadryl in bangkok, remain intact in the long. Does that mean the shares necessarily imply a great risk-reward tradeoff now?

For perspective, benadryl in uk, Buy benadryl cheap, let's take a look at Google's performance and its stock performance over a similar period.

Google Business Growth 2003-2008
Special thanks to GridStone Research for the graph and data

GOOG 5 Year Stock Chart

Overall, Google's stock grew at a 93% CAGR from its IPO in 2004 until 2007, generic benadryl. Even including the precipitous drop in 2008, the stock has grown at a 30% CAGR, buy benadryl without prescription. Cheapest benadryl price, Since 2003, Google has grown its revenue at a 72.6% CAGR and its net income at a 109.1% CAGR, buying benadryl online. Buy benadryl no prescription required, Roughly normalizing to the 2004-2008 time period, Google's revenue and net income have grown at 62% and 80% CAGR, benadryl sales, Cheap benadryl pharmacy, respectively.

It's clear that Google's stock grew relatively in line with its net income, in fact, benadryl buy drug, Benadryl online without prescription, even at its peak Google's stock growth never outpaced its net income growth rate thus implying that wild multiple expansion was not responsible for investor returns over the last five years.

Unfortunately, with the changing economic outlook, buy benadryl from india, Online pharmacy benadryl, the market seems to be pre-emptively punishing Google for slowing growth. If the current share price holds, benadryl no rx required, Cheap benadryl in canada, the implication is that the Company will not grow net income from 2008 levels for another three years assuming that a stock's return (30% CAGR, today) trends towards the longterm growth rate of a company.

This return scenario seems compelling for a long term investor, benadryl online cheap, Buy benadryl lowest price, but given that we remain dependent on growth for our returns as opposed to any fundamental valuation. It's hard to ascertain whether or not the stock current price represents a reasonable entry point.

Google 2008-2009

Unfortunately, buy cheap benadryl internet, Benadryl free delivery, Google's stock chart does not seem overly compelling today. Buy benadryl without prescription, After a bullish cross through its 50-day moving average and up towards its 200-day moving average, an important development for a reversal, the stock has failed its downside test for 50-day support. Further, cheap generic benadryl, Benadryl overnight, the very short term uptrend has all but been violated and it seems a test of its 52-week closing low of $257.44 may be likely. It is interesting to note that, in the area marked in the above graph, benadryl rx, Buy benadryl generic, all short term indicators were overwhelmingly positive just before Google's swift and violent correction over the last month. The stock's inability to gain traction is a sure sign that the long term trend has not reversed despite the formation of a short term higher low and higher high. For those with a long term perspective looking for an opportunistic entry into Google's stock, buying benadryl, Cost benadryl, you may be better off on the sidelines for the time being. But, benadryl online review, Benadryl cheap price, probably not for long. Keep an eye out for a strong bounce off the stock's lows, purchase benadryl without prescription, Buy cheap benadryl online, that will mark your best near term entry point.

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Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

Buy Claritin Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at March 6, 2009

3 Comments

Buy claritin without prescription, Sounds like an oxymoron, safe dividends and speculative upside. Fda approved claritin, How could that be possible?

Oil: 2008-2009

Oil has fallen over 70% over the last year due to declining projections of future oil demand. While I have argued that long oil exposure is a prudent and wise move for any portfolio, claritin in australia, Low price claritin, there's no better time than today to be adding long oil exposure given the potential upside available. It's hard to argue that, buy claritin in us, Lowest price for claritin, despite increased focus on alternative energies and alternative fuels, these new technologies will not likely affect oil demand in any significant manner over the next decade, cheap claritin no prescription. Cheapest generic claritin online, The first American electric car will not reach production until the end of 2010 and will take years before wide spread adoption changes consumer behavior. New power plants also take between 2 and 5 years to complete and truly efficient new technologies such as solar power could take at least another two to three years before they become competitive with current oil prices.

But, despite the 240% upside should oil reach back towards its $150 high, it's hard to predict just when oil might rebound, buy claritin without prescription. As such, cheap claritin from canada, Buy claritin on internet, I've been looking for oil stocks that pay dividends. One in particular, order claritin cheap online, Purchase claritin, Linn Energy, has been on my radar for months.

Linn Energy (LINE) is an exploration and production MLP, claritin medication. Buy claritin online cheap, An MLP is a publicly traded vehicle that is structured as a limited partnerhsip. As a result, overnight claritin, Cheap claritin no rx, "dividends" are actually classified as distributions and treated as a return of principal. Buy claritin without prescription, As a result, there are some additional tax complications, but ultimately provide an opportunity to gain the advantage of having your distributions taxed as capital gains as opposed to ordinary income.

Investment Strengths and Weaknesses
Linn Energy produces and sells oil and gas in the Western and Mid-Continent regions of the U.S. What separates Linn from its competitors is an aggressive hedging program for which they have hedged current production levels through 2011 at prices in excess of $80/barrel of oil and $7/Mcf of natural gas. Even more savvy, buy claritin overnight delivery, Purchase claritin no rx, the Company uses puts on 40% of its hedging to allow it to take advantage of any upside price action.

The worry for Linn and other MLPs is that frozen credit markets will limit their ability to grow through acquisition, claritin information. Best price claritin, Linn, however, buying generic claritin, Claritin medicine, has demonstrated an ability to grow proved reserves organically and maintains $440 million in borrowing capacity, enough to selectively target new assets, buy claritin once daily. Claritin uk, Valuation
Linn currently pays $2.52/share in distributions a year. Strong hedging through 2011 should provide at least three years of security even without continued growth through acquisition, buy claritin without prescription. If the Company were truly unable to grow its proven reserve assets, find no rx claritin, Cheap claritin from uk, it could still produce at current levels for 21 years. Assuming oil and gas prices were never to rebound from current levels, where to order claritin, Order cheap claritin online, one might assume that the dividend would be halved from 2012 and onwards. Applying a 10% discount rate, discount claritin no rx, Claritin for sale, the NPV of these dividends alone would be $14.63, a 12% premium to current prices, claritin without rx. Claritin pill, Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of LINE at the time of writing.
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Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

Buy Remeron Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at January 15, 2009

1 Comment

I wrote earlier today about why I believe Apple will be fine Buy remeron without prescription, despite Steve Jobs' surprise leave of absence. And, cheap remeron tablets, Cheap remeron tablet, overall, it seems investors agree (at least at current market value) with the stock falling just 2% after trading down nearly 7% in after-markets the night before, remeron online cheap. Remeron without rx, Despite this, I've noticed many fear mongers out there advocating the all out demise of Apple with no real look towards the stock's valuation, order remeron overnight delivery. Find cheap remeron, The surprise news definitely clouds some of Apple's longterm revenue visibility (just ask retailers what happens when investors are uneasy about the future), but this doesn't necessitate a meltdown in share price if the valuation adequately discounts worries about the future.

Apple's share price already implies a near doomsday scenario
Apple currently has $27.54/share of cash and short term investments, remeron sale. Remeron alternative, Net working capital currently creates $4.38/share of cash. Assuming a wind down of this business would require a working capital reserve of $5/share to pay down the negative net working capital, this leaves approximately $22/share of cash on the balance sheet which can be considered "distributable" to shareholders, buy remeron without prescription. Given today's closing price of $83/share, drug remeron online purchase, Purchase remeron, that would imply that the value of Apple's future cash flows is just $83 - $22 = $61/share.

Apple DCF Analysis

From the above table, remeron prescription, Get remeron, you can see that Apple's share price currently implies two highly pessimistic scenarios.

Free cash flows will immediately decline 27% from last year and never grow again

Free cash flows will fall 5% annually until it finally shuts its doors

In the less severe, remeron cheap, Remeron rx, but still rather conservative case that Apple's free cash flow falls 15% in the year and never grow again, we determine a current value for the stock at $89.72/share, buy cheapest remeron online. Buying remeron online, And, if the management without Steve Jobs manages exactly as sucessfully as it did in the last fiscal year and doesn't grow the Company ever again, buy remeron without prescription, Lowest price for remeron, the stock ought to fetch $101.67. Buy remeron without prescription, It would seem that at current share prices, as long as Apple can maintain itself as a going concern, investors are getting an opportunity to not only buy the Company's potential growth for free, but also receive a margin of safety in the Company's operational results in excess of 15%.

Is growth even possible without Steve Jobs?
Apple has momentum in its personal computer business, an entrenched and dominant market share in personal media players, the top platform in the budding mobile computing business, and ancillary products (AppleTV and iTunes, in particular) which can be leveraged both for growth and tightening its grip on its consumers through interdependence on its products. Furthermore, cheap remeron without prescription, Order remeron on internet, recent moves by Apple such as the hiring of Mark Papermaster and a slew of chip designers, signals a pipeline of product ideas that is far from running dry, remeron no prescription. Buy remeron online cheap, What investors should worry about
The management team which succeeds Steve Jobs is first and foremost responsible for managing the business. Innovation and vision will come to a patient management team that does not waste money on fruitless "investments" and acquisitions as they may be tempted to do (*cough* yahoo *cough*), remeron discount. Lowest price remeron, There ought to be two priorities:

Maintain run rate free cash flows similar to those of 2007 and 2008

Conserve and build upon cash and short term equivalents

If these two conditions are not met, then shareholders should not give the Company the benefit of the doubt and demand an immediate return of excess cash and short term investments, remeron internet. Find remeron without prescription, I believe Apple's board of directors and current executive team realizes this and is more than capable of continuing executing Apple's strategy producing high-end personal computing products. And, buy remeron low price, Order cheap remeron online, as such, believe that Apple's stock is also trading at a potentially attractive discount despite worries over succession, remeron malaysia. Buy cheap remeron online, Full disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing (and considering adding to my position). Remeron buy online. Overnight remeron. Cheap remeron in usa. Remeron generic. Best price for remeron. Canadian remeron. Buy remeron on internet. Cheap remeron online. Buy remeron us. Remeron sales.

Curious Investments, My Investments, Stock Analysis

Buy Topamax Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at January 14, 2009

2 Comments

Buy topamax without prescription, Before the onset of a recession and consumer pullback, investors rarely had to spend a lot of time ascertaining revenue visibility. Topamax buy, After all, a rising tide lifts all boats, find topamax on internet. Topamax overnight delivery, Find a hot stock, read all the glowing analyst recommendations, compare topamax prices, Compare topamax prices online, and buy knowing that it shouldn't be too hard to hit forecasts. In a negative growth environment, topamax order, Topamax free sample, revenue visbility becomes a much more important aspect of your investment analysis. Cloudy outlooks mean tentative investors which usually equates to two very scary results - volatility and loss of market premium, order no rx topamax. But, this also means that time spent researching revenue drivers can provide that much more of an edge as panicked and confused investors dump their shares.

Nowhere is revenue visibility more of a problem than for apparel retailers, buy topamax without prescription. Topamax from india, After all, it's easy to defer clothing purchases especially when consumers are feeling poorer and poorer, buy topamax. Buy topamax internet, And, it's anyone's guess when pocketbooks will open up again and where that money is going to flow, buy cheap topamax. Cheapest generic topamax online, The trendiest retailers before the recession may not necessarily be the trendiest retailers after. Take a look at the following table:

Retail Valuations 2008 vs. <b>Cheap topamax no prescription</b>, 2009

I've divided the table into three categories. Growth retailers - Urban Outfitters (URBN), cheapest generic topamax, Buying topamax, The Buckle (BKE), and J, order topamax in canada. Tablet topamax, Crew (JCG). A turn around story - Gap (GPS), topamax. And, established "mature" retailers - Abercrombie (ANF), Ralph Lauren (RL), and Guess (GES), buy topamax without prescription. Real topamax without prescription, You'll notice a decided growth premium being paid for the growth group with P/Es in the high-20s just a year ago. And, topamax cheap price, Topamax in malaysia, for the more well established retailers, P/Es were just in the low to mid teens.

Interestingly enough, topamax purchase, Buy discount topamax, stock performance has hardly been correlated to EPS performance. Using forward earnings like I discussed in my previous post on multiple valuation, buy topamax overnight delivery, Order topamax online, we find that forward P/E premiums are all over the place and no longer neatly in their general categories. Has something fundamentally changed about the retailers in the list, canada topamax. Buy topamax without prescription, Or, is something else at work here?

The first culprit is probably the fact that analyst estimates are all over the place. Cheap topamax from uk, No one really knows how much these retailers will make next year. Will there be a rebound, purchase topamax without prescription. Low price topamax, Will they have fresh designs despite massive inventory build ups. Will they be able to win back old customers, topamax tablets. But, even in trying to smooth this by averaging P/Current FY earnings and P/Forward earnings, we still see rather skewed multiples being paid.

The truth is, a lot of these companies are not fundamentally changed by the recession, buy topamax without prescription. Buy topamax on line, Their inability to sell clothes is not unique to each store but a result of a systematic scaling back of consumer spending. If and when apparel demand returns, topamax medicine, Topamax in us, the fundamental growth vs. mature vs, cheap price topamax. Low cost topamax, turn around stories will remain in place yet Mr. Market seems to care little about this fact right now, buy topamax pills. Topamax approved, That means there have to be some great opportunities for someone who can see through the haze.

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Business Analysis, Curious Investments, Stock Analysis, Tutorials, Valuation

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Posted by Dan Hung

at January 9, 2009

1 Comment

Buy flexeril without prescription, In yesterday's post, I discussed the importance of having some long oil exposure in your portfolio as most businesses are generally hurt by increasing oil prices. No rx flexeril, But, if you're like me, certified flexeril, Cheap flexeril from usa, and not an expert oil trader. It can be daunting to go out and buy an oil ETF like the Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Total Return (OIL) or maybe even a Powershares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO), lowest price flexeril. Buy cheapest flexeril online, So, where else can we look?

Oil Majors

unsustainable

Probably the most correlated stocks to the overall price of oil, flexeril in malaysia, Cheap flexeril pill, it could be a dangerous time to be investing in the oil majors who have juiced their share prices with huge dividends and buybacks over the last few years. As mentioned in WSJ's Heard on the Street Blog, cheapest generic flexeril online, Generic flexeril online, just a year of oil prices under $60/barrel could put these capital distributions at risk.

Refiners
Oil refiners make their profits off of the spread between distilled products and oil prices. Demand for refined products - i.e, buy flexeril without prescription. gasoline, flexeril non prescription, Flexeril for sale, diesel, etc, flexeril order. Order flexeril in canada, - ultimately effects demand and the price of oil. During the recent commodity bubble, cheap flexeril overnight delivery, Flexeril india, increases in the price of oil uncharacteristically lead increases in the prices of refined products (a clear sign that fundamental demand was not responsible for the run in oil prices). Then, discount flexeril online, Flexeril, as the economy sputtered, refined product prices tumbled and lead oil down as expected, low cost flexeril. Buy flexeril without prescription, This double whammy has taken its toll on refiners bringing profits down in excess of 50% for most refiners. Flexeril cheap drug, Their stocks have been hit equally as hard and are now trading at huge discounts. As the market stabilizes and demand for refined products returns, flexeril bangkok, Cheap flexeril in uk, margins will likely improve and widen ahead of any significant rebound in oil prices. A few top names include: Holly Corp (HOC), fda approved flexeril, Cheap flexeril on internet, Valero (VLO), Sunoco (SUN), cheap flexeril no prescription, Flexeril online pharmacy, and Tesoro (TSO).

Oil & Gas MLPs
While the oil majors - RD Shell (RDS.A), flexeril online stores, Cheapest flexeril online, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO) - have been supporting their stocks through massive buybacks and increasing dividends, buy flexeril canada, Order flexeril in us, such distributions could be at risk should oil prices stay far below $60/barrel for more than the next year. Smaller Oil & Gas MLPs have similarly large distributions (read: dividends) and many have entered serious hedging contracts that could keep dividends safe for up to the next two years, buy flexeril without prescription. For more on this interesting asset class and a few interesting names check out my post on Exploration and Production MLPs, find discount flexeril online. Buy flexeril cheap, Solar Companies
Solar companies are not quite as correlated to oil, but definitely benefit from increasing oil prices and general energy policy awareness, flexeril information. Flexeril without rx, More importantly, demand for solar products should be supported by government subsidies for the foreseeable future, cheap flexeril no rx. Buying generic flexeril, The timing could be fortuitous as solar companies will be supported by government dollars as they fast approach grid parity and will hopefully be widely able to deliver on a non-subsidized basis just as oil reaches its next rally. Top companies include: First Solar (FSLR), flexeril canada, Flexeril cheap price, Suntech (STP), SunPower (SPWR), order flexeril on internet, Where to order flexeril, LDK Solar (LDK) and Kyocera (KYO)