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Dan Hung — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:54:11 +0000

Buy viagra professional without prescription, This is a follow up to my post, "ISIS Pharmaceuticals breaches long term support." As many of you may know, posts from this blog are often (though not always) syndicated on SeekingAlpha.com. Purchase viagra professional no rx, In the case of my previous post on ISIS, I caught significant flack from the SeekingAlpha community, order viagra professional no prescription required. Viagra professional online, Among other things, I was accused of not understanding how to invest in biotech and generally missing the point on Isis' anti-sense technology, viagra professional buy. Where to order viagra professional, (For those interested, I actually posted on Isis' business and fundamental value in a previous post.)

Well, viagra professional generic, Order generic viagra professional, I figure it's time to post a follow up to my previous post. To recap, best price for viagra professional, Cheap viagra professional on internet, here is the chart I posted on October 5, 2009, real viagra professional without prescription. This is a three-year weekly chart which I typically use to determine the intermediate/long term market trend driving the stock, buy viagra professional without prescription. Buy generic viagra professional, In this chart, ISIS' stock has breached its 50-week moving average, viagra professional professional. Sale viagra professional, Remember that breaching the 50-week moving average necessarily means that the stock has also fallen through its 200-day moving average (not displayed). To me, viagra professional online without a prescription, Order viagra professional online, this means that, on a short term basis, viagra professional for sale, Cheapest viagra professional, market participants have lost conviction in ISIS' stock. More worrisome to me than the interim breach of the 50-week moving average was the negative divergence in RSI during the stock's previous uptrend as well as the lack of any clear areas of support before the $12 range, find viagra professional on internet. Buy viagra professional without prescription, Coincidentally, the $12 support level defined by several previous lows as well as the prior interim high seen on the far left of the chart also coincides with the $12.12 defined by the 200-week moving average. Order viagra professional in us, As such, I made the call that "a retest of the 200-week moving average is not out of the question" and that there was "a potential 15-20% additional value at risk" on October 5, buy viagra professional on internet, Viagra professional pharmacy, 2009.

Okay, find discount viagra professional, Order viagra professional, now let's look at how the stock has traded since my call.

In the month following my call, viagra professional online cheap, Viagra professional buy online, ISIS hit a daily closing low of $12.31/share, basically right at the 200-week moving average (which averaged upwards slightly since October 5, viagra professional in malaysia, Find viagra professional no prescription required, 2009).

Am I clairvoyant!?
No, cheap generic viagra professional, Buying viagra professional, of course not. In fact, I don't even consider myself primarily a technical investor, buy viagra professional without prescription. I merely use it to guide my short term decisions, viagra professional bangkok. Viagra professional sale, For those that write off technical analysis, however, viagra professional rx, Buy cheap viagra professional, I think this is a great example of just how it can be used to improve your investing. I wasn't analyzing ISIS in hopes of timing my trades, cost of viagra professional. Viagra professional online without prescription, I was merely trying to establish a disciplined stop-loss for a position that I hold. Buy viagra professional without prescription, In the end, I did not buy back into ISIS, but instead allocated capital to BX on November 5, 2009. In the interim, buy viagra professional no prescription required, No rx viagra professional, I saved myself from holding ISIS and losing an additional 12% on my position.

The key to remember with technical analysis is that it does not stand in place of or in contrast with fundamental analysis, cheap viagra professional from uk. Find cheap viagra professional, But, absent a market moving press release, cheap viagra professional from canada, it is a method of understanding how "Mr. Market's" voting machine will vote during a discrete period of time. I know this seems like very carefully chosen wording, but there is no such thing as one strategy which works in all situations in investing, buy viagra professional without prescription. The key is to stick with what you know and have the tools necessary to analyze different opportunities. In the case of determining emotionless stop losses and profit maximizing entry points, I am a believer in technical analysis.

Full disclosure: Author is long shares of BX at the time of writing. No position in any other stock mentioned. .

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Dan Hung — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:37:08 +0000

Buy cialis without prescription, Been meaning to write this post for a while, but it seems that my patience has paid off as I have even more chart evidence to work with. And, cialis non prescription, Generic cialis online, that is the main point of this post. Technical analysis is not a means for predicting the future, tablet cialis. Buy no rx cialis, That may seem paradoxical to those who have seen me use technical analysis to attempt to determine buy and sell points. If technical analysis isn't for predicting the future, cialis without prescription, Cheapest generic cialis, then how can it be useful.

What I mean by technical analysis isn't meant for predicting is that rigorous technical analysis isn't a means for front running what you "think" may happen to a stock, buy cialis without prescription. It's a means for gleaning information from an existing chart about an existing trend and helping the practitioner to make investments with underlying market supply and demand behind them, cialis buy online. Order cialis on internet, I came across this post, "Are Sears Holdings shares headed for a correction?, cialis overnight shipping, Drug cialis online purchase, " at wallstnation.com. The thrust of their argument was that SHLD's shares had traced a head and shoulders pattern and that a significant correction was likely, cialis tablet. Cialis free sample, Here's a "text book" head and shoulders pattern:

The stock rises to a peak and then declines.

The stock rises to a second higher peak and declines, but does not breach support defined by the first decline.

The stock rises to another peak but is unable to recapture the second peak.

The stock breaches the support level formed by the first decline and confirms a reversal of trend

Wall St, drug cialis. Nation posted this chart of SHLD as of 9/30/09:

Buy cialis without prescription, Wall St. Buy cheap cialis, Nation's contention is that a head-and-shoulders pattern is defined by the three peaks it labels. Wall St, cheapest cialis. Cheap cialis in uk, Nation claims that this formation is "one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns." What they miss is the fact that simply the formation of three "head-and-shoulders" style peaks is not the predictor of a trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern must include a breach at the end of the pattern formation, buy cialis on line. That is step 4 listed above, buy cialis without prescription. Cialis uk, The head and shoulders pattern is a trend reversal not just a "reliable pattern" for predicting a trend reversal. Once the full pattern is formed, cialis in malaysia, Online cialis, one can typically expect a continuation of the downtrend after initial support is breached. In the case of SHLD, online pharmacy cialis, Cheap cialis in canada, baseline support was never breached. In Wall St, purchase cialis no rx. Buy cialis without prescription, Nation's own example, lows never breached the initial low in the formation and in fact have maintained an upward bias that they themselves identify in the chart.

In fact, in the chart they show, it is just as likely that a long term uptrend remains well intact and that the chart is merely in-between a series two "higher highs.' Well, a month later, what has happened?

Well, the stock ripped off an upward run and made a high beyond the "right shoulder" of the supposed head-and-shoulders pattern. Sale cialis, At this point, it's hard to identify any near term trend at all, cialis overnight. Cialis without a prescription, Generally speaking, it seems the 50-day moving average has provided rough support, find cheap cialis, Cialis medicine, MACD shows a bullish bias, and a lower low has not been seen all year.

In the case of the 3-year, cheapest cialis online, Buy discount cialis, weekly price chart, SHLD has just this year managed to return above its 50-week moving average which I believe signals a potential long term trend reversal, buy cialis canada. Canadian pharmacy cialis, For more on that, check out my post on long term technical analysis and trend reversals.

Full disclosure: Author has no position in the stocks mentioned in this post, order cialis overnight delivery. Cialis online without prescription,

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Dan Hung — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 04:30:23 +0000

Buy zovirax without prescription, A reader of my last post on Google's current stock performance, took issue with my statement:

It is interesting to note that, in the area marked in the above graph, all short term indicators were overwhelmingly positive just before Google’s swift and violent correction over the last month.

The reader was clearly a technical analysis skeptic and questioned whether or not one should use indicators at all. While I admit that technical analysis has its limitations (particularly for long term investors), zovirax vendors, Low cost zovirax, I'd like to write a quick response to this reader's contention and share it here.

When I noted that Google's near short term indicators were overwhelmingly positive, canadian pharmacy zovirax, Buy generic zovirax online, I was speaking in reference to the following Google chart:

In the marked area, you'll see that MACD had bullishly crossed into positive territory and diverging positively, buy zovirax internet. Zovirax from india, RSI was making higher highs in conjunction with relative highs in the stock chart. Positive volume was ascending both in daily magnitude and regularity, buy zovirax. Add in that the stock had strongly crossed its 50-day moving average and quickly ascended to the top of its Bollinger Band, and you have all the makings of a potential trend reversal and formation of a new uptrend.

The one thing people forget in technical analysis, however, is that it is governed by the principle that price movements are ultimately governed by a long term trend, or continuum, and short term movements will ultimately conform to this trend, buy zovirax without prescription. Find zovirax online, In the case of Google, a stock for which value is predicated more on growth than intrinsic value, zovirax side effects, Buy zovirax in canada, the use of trend analysis can be used to establish disciplined entry and stop loss points and still allow you to take advantage of long term value creation.

Take a look at Google's yearly chart with weekly bars. The stock clearly peaked in late 2007 and started a down trend - a series of lower highs followed by lower lows, zovirax in us. Buy zovirax canada, It's bearishly crossed its 50-week moving average and its 200-week moving average. Worse yet, real zovirax without prescription, Cheap zovirax internet, the 50-week moving average has recently crossed the 200-week moving average signalling a potentially deepening downtrend. Buy zovirax without prescription, With this kind of negative bias surrounding the overarching movement of Google's stock, is it any surprise that the stock recently failed to test support at its 50-day moving average?

As a rule of thumb and to protect against whipsaw losses, buy with the trend. Even when near term indicators based on 50-day and 200-day moving averages signal potentially positive price moves, zovirax australia, Buy zovirax from canada, a stock in a long term downtrend will usually find its rallies ephemeral. Just as Google's recent rally did not last more than a month.

So, canadian zovirax, Certified zovirax, how would a long term investor use this strategy. As mentioned above, find discount zovirax, Cheap zovirax overnight delivery, I typically use technical analysis to guide my long term growth plays. Growth stocks can offer very high rates of return, cheapest zovirax prices, Buy zovirax online, but very little downside protection. Furthermore, zovirax pills, Buy zovirax online without prescription, multiple compression or expansion is nearly impossible to predict. This is where an understanding of relative value and relative supply demand allows you to better control your risk/reward, buy zovirax no rx. Purchase zovirax online, Yes, you might miss out on a little return as you wait for trend confirmation, pharmacy zovirax, Find zovirax on internet, but I'm willing to lose a little upside for some peace of mind.

For those of you interested in learning about using technical analysis for short term and day trading, check out The Curious Investor's affiliate, zovirax for order, Zovirax drug, the MarketClub Trader's Blog.

Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of GOOG at the time of writing.

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Dan Hung — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:13:49 +0000

Buy glucophage without prescription, I haven't written about technical analysis in a long time. Discount glucophage overnight delivery, Given my shift away from trading and technical analysis to a more long term value focus, it's probably to be expected, glucophage pills. Find cheap glucophage online, But, I realize that a lot of investors out there have their interest piqued by technical analysis and hope to incorporate it in their investment analysis, order glucophage without prescription. Buy cheapest glucophage on line, I also realize that true value investing can be difficult. Many of us don't have the time or the expertise to do extensive balance sheet analysis to determine liquidation value of our investment targets, cheap glucophage pill. How, then, can we invest with true margin of safety, buy glucophage without prescription. Cheapest glucophage prices, Obviously, the main objective is to determine your fair valuation through fundamental means - multiples analysis, discount glucophage, Buy glucophage low price, financial projections, DCF, glucophage alternative, Cheap glucophage in usa, etc - and invest in stocks trading at a discount. But, order discount glucophage, Glucophage tablet, how do we enter without risking too much to the downside.

This is a situation where I may differ with Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet, buy glucophage lowest price. Glucophage cheapest price, I don't necessarily have the bankroll to continuously average down my positions. Buy glucophage without prescription, Further, I live by the tenet that paper losses can often turn into material losses with the passage of time and unexpected needs for liquidity. Thus, glucophage, Buy glucophage no prescription required, I realize that often times the trend really can be your friend. In the words of an investor I admire, glucophage online review, Glucophage cheap, it is often better to be in the wrong stock at the right time than in the right stock at the wrong time. So, glucophage online sales, Glucophage buy online, how do we determine the "right time".

The Rightside Chart

Here's Google's weekly chart from January 2005 to January 2008, glucophage bangkok. This is a near perfect longterm up trend, buy glucophage without prescription. Glucophage approved, This is what all investors wish their stocks' charts looked like 50-week moving average (1 year) support as well as the longterm trend coincide nearly perfectly signaling a modest and sustainable trajectory. Using a weekly chart gives you the overarching trend or, glucophage from india, Order discount glucophage online, as an investor I admire calls it, the stock's continuum, find cheap glucophage, Buy glucophage in us, and can provide context when you're fretting over more volatile day-to-day price movements.

Trend Reversals

Here's Apple's chart between mid 2002 and early 2004. Apple was notoriously trading near cash on the books before investors realized that this was not the same Apple of the mid-1990s and the rest is history, glucophage price. Buy glucophage internet, Given Apple's history of poor cash usage and inability to get traction in its computer business, even the most seasoned value investor might not necessarily have felt completely comfortable with the stock, buy glucophage once daily. Buy glucophage without prescription, But, a look at the chart provides technical confirmation that the market is beginning realize the intrinsic value at Apple. Cheap glucophage no prescription, First, we see the stock trade towards it's 50-day moving average and weakly break towards the 200-day moving average, online pharmacy glucophage. Glucophage online cheap, The stock subsequently spends 6-months testing prior resistance while the 50-day and 200-day moving average converge. Finally, glucophage overnight shipping, Glucophage prices, as highlighted, we see a breakout on heavy volume simultaneously with inversion of the 50-day moving average as well as a moving average cross over, buy glucophage on line. Buy glucophage us, In subsequent months, we see the formation of a new rightside chart where the 50-day moving average acts as support for the initial acceleration phase and we'll eventually see the 200-day moving average (roughly equivalent to the 50-week moving average) become the support for the long term continuum.

Apple's chart shows reversal happening in a swift and nearly simultaneous fashion, glucophage us. The truth is, reversals can be longer and more painstaking, buy glucophage without prescription. Order cheap glucophage, Generally, several steps will be accomplished:

Breakout through the 50-day SMA

Initial "weak" rise towards 200-day SMA

Retracement and testing of the 50-day SMA (accumulation)

Repeated testing of 200-day and 50-day resistance and support leading to convergence between the two moving averages

Strong breakout above the 200-day and the formation of a new rightside chart

A Case Study for Today

The Buckle is a company I've been watching for a while, glucophage india. The stock has been punished by the current retail pull back despite being one of few retailers able sustain same store sales growth, no debt, and significant upside for square footage growth (in the event of an economic turn around). Retailers, particularly ones with true growth stories, are rarely true value plays. They typically rent locations and source their clothes from other manufacturers and thus have few hard assets and, if run properly, are inventory light. For example, the Buckle has just $6.87 in tangible book value per share, a significant amount of downside risk if the Company were to be forced into liquidation for one reason or another.

But, given how well the Company has managed to perform through the downturn and management's shareholder friendly policies including a significant dividend (3.5+% at current prices) and a buy back plan, it would seem that the fair value for this stock is likely significantly better than $20-$22/share. Despite this, even if I believe that this stock has significant value above the current price, I'd be reticent to invest at these levels given the current risk/reward trade off. Looking at the current chart, though, it seems that the stock has found downside support and has begun base formation (accumulation). For me, I would be willing to trade a few basis points of return for a confirmation breakout which would provide a higher likelihood of immediate return and series of resistance levels to use as stop losses.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of Apple and Google at the time of writing. .

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Dan Hung — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:35:33 +0000

Buy colchicine without prescription, In the final post on Dow Theory, we examine how Dow Theory applies as a broad market indicator. Cheap colchicine pill, If you need to catch up, you can read the other two posts - An Overview of Dow Theory and Using Dow Theory to Identify Trends - by clicking the links, colchicine no prescription. Colchicine tablet, To some degree, this is a more classical use of Dow Theory, buy colchicine canada, Colchicine cost, despite the fact that I'm addressing it last. Generally speaking, overnight colchicine, Order colchicine in us, when you read articles about "Dow Theorists" prognosticating on the state of the markets, they are referring to the analysis I will describe in the rest of the post, compare colchicine prices online. Colchicine side effects, Charles Dow believed that, in order to confirm primary trends in the broad market, purchase colchicine overnight delivery, No prescription colchicine, averages must conform with one another. In particular, Dow used the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a proxy for the general markets and the Dow jones Transportation Average as a conforming indicator, buy colchicine without prescription. Why was this, buy generic colchicine online. Colchicine australia, Transport stocks are typically more susceptible to economic changes than other stocks. In Dow's time, get colchicine, Order discount colchicine online, these stocks were typically rail businesses and other freight shipping businesses which would notice shipment decreases well before the rest of the market turned down. These days, order colchicine, Order colchicine from us, the DJTA is highly airline heavy which adds a layer of complexity to the issue as airlines are not a direct 20th century analogue to the rail and freights of years past. Buy colchicine without prescription, Yes, airlines derive much business from business travelers but they are also susceptible to changes in consumer demand. That does not mean that the transportation average is no longer applicable in Dow Theory analysis, cheap colchicine online. Order colchicine in us, One could say that airlines provide an even better leading indicator as their typically high debt loads create added susceptibility to interest rate changes and their fuel needs adds in a level of reaction to energy prices in addition to their susceptibility to business climate changes.

So, order colchicine cheap online, Discount colchicine overnight delivery, how do the DJTA and DJIA work together to provide a better picture of the future direction of the markets. Generally speaking, cheap colchicine pharmacy, Colchicine cheap price, the DJTA is supposed to lead movements in the DJIA. Furthermore, trend changes in one index must be confirmed by trend changes in the other index, buy colchicine without prescription. Spotting trends is done the same way as described in the last Dow Theory post - peak analysis with volume confirmation, order cheap colchicine online. Colchicine rx,

Here, I've graphed the DJTA above the DJIA for the last year, best price for colchicine. Online pharmacy colchicine, What we see is that the DJTA entered a downtrend just as the DJIA made its last gasp at a higher high. Later on, buy colchicine lowest price, Purchase colchicine no rx, in the second area denoted by vertical lines, we see the DJTA bottom and make a higher high as the DJIA just reaches what seems to be a bottom of its own.

You might be tempted to conclude that the transportation average must lead the industrial average, buy colchicine without prescription. Price of colchicine, But, this is not the case and I will reiterate that the only "rule" provided by Dow Theory is that averages must conform when signaling trend changes, colchicine without a prescription. Colchicine pills, An example can be found in the period between the second and third vertical lines, we see the DJTA break above its projected downtrend and make a relative high, colchicine online review. Buy cheap colchicine online, The DJIA did not make a similar move and instead only made a lower high, the second in what would be a series of lower highs and lower lows, colchicine online cheap. Buy colchicine on line, Thus, the only conclusive evidence we have here is that the two averages much conform with one another before a trend change is officially identified.

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