Valuation

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Posted by Dan Hung

at May 7, 2009

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Posted by Dan Hung

at January 14, 2009

2 Comments

Buy topamax without prescription, Before the onset of a recession and consumer pullback, investors rarely had to spend a lot of time ascertaining revenue visibility. Topamax buy, After all, a rising tide lifts all boats, find topamax on internet. Topamax overnight delivery, Find a hot stock, read all the glowing analyst recommendations, compare topamax prices, Compare topamax prices online, and buy knowing that it shouldn't be too hard to hit forecasts. In a negative growth environment, topamax order, Topamax free sample, revenue visbility becomes a much more important aspect of your investment analysis. Cloudy outlooks mean tentative investors which usually equates to two very scary results - volatility and loss of market premium, order no rx topamax. But, this also means that time spent researching revenue drivers can provide that much more of an edge as panicked and confused investors dump their shares.

Nowhere is revenue visibility more of a problem than for apparel retailers, buy topamax without prescription. Topamax from india, After all, it's easy to defer clothing purchases especially when consumers are feeling poorer and poorer, buy topamax. Buy topamax internet, And, it's anyone's guess when pocketbooks will open up again and where that money is going to flow, buy cheap topamax. Cheapest generic topamax online, The trendiest retailers before the recession may not necessarily be the trendiest retailers after. Take a look at the following table:

Retail Valuations 2008 vs. <b>Cheap topamax no prescription</b>, 2009

I've divided the table into three categories. Growth retailers - Urban Outfitters (URBN), cheapest generic topamax, Buying topamax, The Buckle (BKE), and J, order topamax in canada. Tablet topamax, Crew (JCG). A turn around story - Gap (GPS), topamax. And, established "mature" retailers - Abercrombie (ANF), Ralph Lauren (RL), and Guess (GES), buy topamax without prescription. Real topamax without prescription, You'll notice a decided growth premium being paid for the growth group with P/Es in the high-20s just a year ago. And, topamax cheap price, Topamax in malaysia, for the more well established retailers, P/Es were just in the low to mid teens.

Interestingly enough, topamax purchase, Buy discount topamax, stock performance has hardly been correlated to EPS performance. Using forward earnings like I discussed in my previous post on multiple valuation, buy topamax overnight delivery, Order topamax online, we find that forward P/E premiums are all over the place and no longer neatly in their general categories. Has something fundamentally changed about the retailers in the list, canada topamax. Buy topamax without prescription, Or, is something else at work here?

The first culprit is probably the fact that analyst estimates are all over the place. Cheap topamax from uk, No one really knows how much these retailers will make next year. Will there be a rebound, purchase topamax without prescription. Low price topamax, Will they have fresh designs despite massive inventory build ups. Will they be able to win back old customers, topamax tablets. But, even in trying to smooth this by averaging P/Current FY earnings and P/Forward earnings, we still see rather skewed multiples being paid.

The truth is, a lot of these companies are not fundamentally changed by the recession, buy topamax without prescription. Buy topamax on line, Their inability to sell clothes is not unique to each store but a result of a systematic scaling back of consumer spending. If and when apparel demand returns, topamax medicine, Topamax in us, the fundamental growth vs. mature vs, cheap price topamax. Low cost topamax, turn around stories will remain in place yet Mr. Market seems to care little about this fact right now, buy topamax pills. Topamax approved, That means there have to be some great opportunities for someone who can see through the haze.

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Business Analysis, Curious Investments, Stock Analysis, Tutorials, Valuation

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Posted by Dan Hung

at January 13, 2009

1 Comment

Buy aciphex without prescription, Earnings season officially kicked off today with Alcoa's $1.49/share loss versus last year's $0.75/share profit in the same quarter. Find discount aciphex online, The market yawned at the news and share's moved just 0.5% in aftermarket trading. We all know that earnings this quarter will be dismal, purchase aciphex online. Cheap aciphex in canada, In fact, Thompson Reuters expects negative earnings growth in seven of 10 sectors it tracks, aciphex cheapest price. Cheap aciphex pharmacy, How could Alcoa investors shrug off such poor earnings. Alcoa's all important P/E ratio is about to rocket out of control with its shrinking earnings, right, buy aciphex without prescription. If this trend continues, aciphex in bangkok, Buy generic aciphex, all the pundits that have been claiming that the S&P 500 P/E ratio is reaching historically low levels must be wrong. The market will become overvalued in just a few days as more earnings falter, buy aciphex from india. Cheap aciphex pill, Not so fast. The P/E ratio in basic quotes provided by many financial sites - Google Finance, purchase aciphex no rx, Certified aciphex, Bigcharts.com, etc, aciphex professional. Buy aciphex without prescription, - is typically based on rolling 52-week earnings. Aciphex drug, That is, most P/E numbers you see are a trailing metric, aciphex cheap drug. Best price aciphex, Not only that, but these earnings numbers are not "cleaned" for extraordinary or one-time events, buy no rx aciphex. Drug aciphex, Case Study
Here's an example of current P/E valuations for a few major credit card companies. I'm using readily attainable data from Yahoo!Finance, pharmacy aciphex.

Taking trailing P/E in a vacuum, you might come to the decision that Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) must be trading at unreasonable premiums, buy aciphex without prescription. Aciphex vendors, Mastercard is trading at $148/share despite having no earnings. And, aciphex for sale, Aciphex us, you'd be paying a whopping $91 for a beneficial ownership in every $1 of Visa earnings. American Express (AXP) and Discover (DFS) look like much better "values."

In reality, canada aciphex, Pharmacy aciphex, Visa and Mastercard have been hit by the settlement of two law suits which forced them to make large one-time payments which affected their earnings over the last year. In the future, cheap aciphex from uk, Aciphex cost, you're not likely see them have to make these payments and as a result they ought to very quickly return to higher earnings levels in the future.

If we look at valuations based on estimated next year's earnings, this is exactly what we see, sale aciphex. Buy aciphex without prescription, On a forward basis, the four major credit card processors are, in fact, trading within a very close range. Buying aciphex, While AXP and DFS still look like the best "values," it's now not as clear cut, order no rx aciphex. Cheap aciphex in canada, It can be argued that the premium on MA and V shares is reasonable since they operate solely as payment processors. Discover and American Express, purchase aciphex overnight delivery, Aciphex malaysia, on the other hand, are exposed to consumer credit since they operate as lenders in addition to offering payment processing, purchase aciphex no rx. Discount aciphex no rx, Given headwinds around consumer credit , there would seem to be more risk to forward projections on American Express and Discover earnings.

Don't get me wrong, order aciphex no rx. Forward P/E has its faults, buy aciphex without prescription. Buy aciphex in us, It's based on consensus estimates from Wall Street analysts and we all learned during the dot-com bubble that their estimates are not always conservative. In fact, buy cheap aciphex internet, Buy no rx aciphex, if you have the werewithal I suggest constructing run-rate earnings numbers on your own. But, find discount aciphex, Aciphex in australia, particularly in a recessionary environment, I believe that on-going earnings will be better represented by forward P/Es than trailing P/Es.

Full disclosure: No positions in any of the stocks mentioned, aciphex pills.

Curious Investments, Market Commentary, Tutorials, Valuation

Buy Combivir Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at November 30, 2007

5 Comments

Now that we know a few methods of estimating future growth Buy combivir without prescription, , we will round out the analysis necessary for application in the discounted dividend model with a brief look at the Capital Asset Pricing Model which is often used for estimating required rate of return.

Obviously, cheapest generic combivir online, Combivir online, when using the discounted dividend approach to valuation, you could just use an assumed required rate of return, combivir online without a prescription. Combivir prices, For example, maybe you are only willing to invest in a stock priced to allow you to make 10% return, generic combivir online. Combivir us, That's fine. Any evaluation you use with this required rate of return will give you a baseline price with which to buy a stock, cheap combivir in uk.

Many times, however, valuations are important in allowing you to get an accurate picture of how the market is pricing a security, buy combivir without prescription. Combivir tablets, And, furthermore, combivir cheap drug, Combivir drug, to give you an accurate estimation of "true" value as opposed to your personally preferred value. That's where the capital asset pricing model comes in, buy combivir on internet. Combivir pills, Let's take a look.

Capital Asset Pricing Model
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is based on the theory that return and risk ought to be positively correlated, combivir india. Buy combivir without prescription, In fact, it believes that risk and return have a linear correlation. Buy discount combivir, When we discuss risk, we mean systematic risk or market risk which is risk which cannot be diversified away, buy cheap combivir internet. Drug combivir online purchase, Basically, risk due to the market and changes in the economy as opposed to individual event risk such as bankruptcy or accounting scandals, purchase combivir no rx. Price of combivir, If you've read this blog for a while, you'll remember that the commonly accepted measure for systematic risk is beta which measures a stock or a portfolio's volatility relative to the market overall, combivir rx. Fda approved combivir, Please refer to the post on calculating beta for an in depth look at how to calculate it.

CAPM assumes that beta and return are related, buy combivir without prescription. To quantify this relationship, combivir approved, Order combivir without prescription, we assume that market return would have a beta of 1. And, order combivir, Find no rx combivir, then we look for the risk free rate which would be return to a portfolio with a beta of 0. CAPM then assumes that one can draw a line between these two points (known as the security market line) and this line would give you the expected return of any portfolio with corresponding beta, purchase combivir without prescription. Combivir online sale, Why would the relationship be linear. Buy combivir without prescription, The explanation is simple. Assume that you can always buy an index fund to replicate market return with a beta of 1 and you can always buy a treasury bond at a given risk free interest rate, buy combivir generic. Buy cheapest combivir, You can always create a portfolio with any beta you want using a combination of these two securities. And thus, discount combivir, Cheap price combivir, any other portfolio with a similar beta would have to have the same return as returns that don't match the security market line would allow beta-based arbitrage opportunities.

So, combivir alternative, Buy cheapest combivir on line, let's try to construct a security market line. The average return of the S&P 500 since 1950 was 8.48%, buy combivir without prescription. The average 3-month treasury rate (usually taken as being risk free) since 1958 was 5.16%, buy combivir online without prescription. Cheap combivir no prescription, This implies that the equity risk premium, the excess return investors demand for taking on market risk, where to order combivir, Combivir pharmacy, is around 3.32%.

Security Market Line

The above graph was created using data on the S&P 500 and the 3-month Treasury return from 1958 till the 2006, buy combivir online. Cheap combivir from usa, The equation on the line is y = 3.32x + 5.16 gives us an equation for expected rate of return given the beta of a security. y Buy combivir without prescription, is the expected rate of return. x is beta, order combivir on internet. Combivir overnight, And, 3.32 is the equity risk premium.

If you'd like to try to crunch your own numbers data for S&P 500 returns can be found here. And, data on many kinds of bond rates can be found here.

Tutorials, Valuation

Buy Compazine Without Prescription

Posted by Dan Hung

at November 28, 2007

2 Comments

The previous post introduced several discounted dividend models Buy compazine without prescription, for valuing stocks. Compazine sales, These models ask for an estimate of growth and required rate of return in order to work. While all estimates require some amount of "guessing" there are some methods which will help you to get more accurate results, compazine bangkok. Order no rx compazine, Here, we deal with methods of estimating growth, find compazine no prescription required. Compazine for sale, Past Dividend Growth Rate
Possibly the most direct way to attempt to get dividend growth rates is to analyze dividend growth in the past. Simply put, look at the rate of growth for annual dividends and average it, buy compazine without prescription. One can either take a compound average or a mathematical average, find cheap compazine online. Compazine online stores, This can yield slightly different results. Let's take an example:

Year	Dividend	Growth Rate
1	1.00
2	1.05	5%
3	1.10	4.76%
4	1.25	13.63%
5	1.29	3.1%

Average: 6.62% Compound Average: 6.55%

One can also get this data from reuters.com's "Ratios" fact sheet for stocks, order compazine from us. Discount compazine online, Click here for a link to the sheet for Bank of America. Buy compazine without prescription, Where dividend information is not available, one can do similar analysis with overall net income growth over prior periods. The assumption would be that if payout rates stay the same, no rx compazine, Buy compazine no rx, net income growth should grow at the same rate.

Reinvestment Rate
The reinvestment rate is the rate of growth that its company can gain through reinvestment of its retained earnings. This is calculated as retention rate * Return on Equity, compazine in us. Cheap compazine pill, Basically, you are assuming that retained earnings will be reinvested and returns will be generated at the same return the company has been able to maintain over the last year, buy compazine. Cheap compazine tablet,

Note: Retention rate is the ratio of retained earnings over net income. Basically, 1 - the payout ratio, buy compazine without prescription. It is often easier to find payout ratio data (use reuters as described above).

Internal Growth Rate
Another way to estimate growth over the next year is to divide retained earnings by total assets, compazine in bangkok. Compazine cheapest price, This is the maximum growth achievable without outside financing. This gives an idea of how well a company can grow its if it makes new investments in itself, order compazine online. Find discount compazine, This gives a better idea of the internal growth capabilities of the company and an idea of where terminal growth may be.

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Tutorials, Valuation

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Posted by Dan Hung

at November 26, 2007

6 Comments

Buy confido without prescription, After the last few posts trying to connect the source of stock "value" to dividends, it would only make sense that one could value individual stocks through their dividends (or anticipated dividends). Buy confido low price, And you can.

The method is actually very simple, buy cheap confido online. Order cheap confido, The value of a stock, or anything else for that matter, cheapest generic confido, Confido online without prescription, ought to be equal to the present value of all future benefits that an investor can expect to receive from owning the stock. Now, confido for order, Compare confido prices, for a short term trader, these benefits could come from expectation of a higher selling price later (speculation about future price), compare confido prices online. But, if you were to buy and hold for an infinitely long period, the future benefits would come from all the dividends to be paid to you as a shareholder, buy confido without prescription. Buy generic confido, When doing this analysis with dividends, you are using what is known as the discounted dividend model for valuation, purchase confido. Generic confido, The Zero Growth Model
The simplest way of valuing a stock based on its dividend is the zero growth model. Basically, buy confido in us, Confido overnight shipping, take the stock's dividend right now and assume it never increases but will continued to be paid on a regular basis from now till the end of time. Then decide on a rate of return you expect from a longterm investment, confido free delivery. Buy confido without prescription, Generally, this ranges from 8 - 12%. Cheap confido from canada, The price of the stock can then be calculated as follows:

P = D / r

where D is the annual dividend and r is the rate of return demanded by investors.

Constant Growth Model
Now, if you assume that the stock's value will grow by a certain percentage every year, tablet confido, Where to buy confido, you can factor growth into the model with this simple equation:

P = D/(r-g)

where g is the constant growth rate expected in the future.

Variable Growth
More realistically, dividends will grow at variable rates over the future, confido in malaysia. Buying confido online, Obviously, it's very difficult to predict growth rates, order confido cheap online, Confido medicine, but you can likely anticipate dividend growth over the next 5 to 10 years with some degree of accuracy. Simply discount each future dividend by (1+r)^N where N is the period of the future dividend, buy discount confido online. Confido pharmacy online, And, make an assumption on a terminal growth rate for the dividends at the end of the years you can reasonably project, purchase confido online. Sum the discounted values of the anticipated dividends and then add 1/(1+r)^N * Df/(r-gf) which represents the dividends being paid in the future when growth has leveled off, buy confido without prescription. Generic confido cheap,

As you can tell, these models for valuation are fairly simple, find confido online. Find confido, Furthermore, they depend heavily on growth rate and required rate of return, discount confido no rx. Free confido, For example, if a stock is paying a $1 annual dividend and we take the zero growth model, buy confido internet. Cheap confido in canada, We can get valuation ranging from $12.50 to $10 for the stock if we take a required rate of return between 8% and 10%. While this doesn't seem like much on a nominal basis, buy confido lowest price, Lowest price confido, it does correspond to a 25% difference in price.

Thus, the discounted dividend model for stock valuation is not necessarily to be used for hard and fast valuations, buy confido online cheap, Cheap confido overnight delivery, but it can give you a general idea of what to expect from your investments. And, order confido from canada, Confido australia, it can definitely help to establish a baseline value for your long-term stock positions.

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