Before we begin, I want to help a fellow blogger promote his new Value Investing Forum. Jonathan Goldberg is an MBA from the University of Western Ontario and has a value investing blog at JonathanGoldberg.com and hopes to inspire a community of investors to share ideas (much like my goal at TheCuriousInvestor. So, COMMENT!)

Without further ado, here are some articles which piqued my interest last week (or two).

• Chris Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics (via Jesse’s Cafe Americain) believes that Q4 will be a bloodbath for the banking industry.
• Dividend Growth Investor discusses the benefits of an emotionless sell policy. I absolutely agree. I’ve written a few posts on this topic myself:
  • Selling – All, Some or None
  • Devising a Sell Strategy
  • Be rational, be disciplined, and sell for a profit
• Ino.com presents a detailed technical analysis of Oil ETFs. (Full Disclosure: Curious Investor is an affiliate)
• I highly suggest this excerpt from Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book, Too Big to Fail. It’s a great inside look at what really went on as America’s banking industry was at the brink.
• Contingent Capital discusses an easy ratio for determining the health of banks.
• Naked Capitalism talks about the continuing shift away from denominating oil in US Dollars. Looks like Kevin Philips’ warnings in Bad Money may be coming true faster than we thought.

• thinks natural gas may be showing signs of life. Having written about natural gas in June and been way early to the party, I sure hope they’re right. Maybe my intuition will be vindicated.
• The Technical Indicator (Marketwatch.com Newsletter) wrote up a great analysis of U.S. stock market indices. While, at the time the article was written, bulls were mounting a gallant fight, it seems the S&P has finally lost the battle to defend the 1,044 support level.
• Bespoke Investment Group posts an eye opening graph detailing upward earnings revisions this year. If the best investors are fearful when others are greedy, then maybe we should be very fearful.
• Dividend Growth Investor notes that financials and other prominent large caps have begun considering increasing their dividends.
• Peridot Capitalist discusses his thoughts on the S&P’s current valuation.

Obviously, this is the magic of venture capital and outside of investing in a publicly traded venture BDC like Harris and Harris (Ticker: TINY), there’s not much we at home investors can do to get in on the ground floor. But, with up and coming retailers, we can still win! Heck, everyone remembers when Zappos was a low-price retailer instead of just a “customer service focused” retailer. Those were good days weren’t they?

Well, it seems a new trend is hitting the web. “Private” members-only luxury sample sale sites.  These retailers focus on getting limited quantities of luxury brand items and selling them for firesale prices. Obviously, sales last a limited time and items typically run out fast. As luxury retailers struggle in the current market environment, private sample sale websites have become a favorite way to liquidate past seasons’ inventory without risking the brand image (i.e. falling into the discount vortex). Sale prices are fleeting and consumers never get a chance to get accustomed to being able to get a luxury brand’s wares for less. In fact, the sales may only help reinforce the “aspirational” quality of these brands. By now, I’m sure you’re dying to know what sites I’m talking about. Never fear. The Curious Investor is here with the skinny and I’ve got invites for all my readers as well.

Gilt Groupe seems to be the mother of the main private, sample sale retailers in the U.S. With 1.4 million members, it’s growing like a weed and predicts that it will grow sales from $140 million this year to $400 million next year. They’re also hiring like a crazy so those of you looking for a job, head on over and take a look at their careers page. Gilt is women’s focused but men’s brands have been coming fast and furious. The main site – Gilt Groupe – focuses on established brands like Ralph Lauren, Guess, Barker Black, Dior, etc. and features apparel, accessories (handbags, shoes, watches, etc.), beauty products and home interior products. After using the site for a while, my guess is that the Company takes inventory for some sales and these sales are the fastest to sell out and typically only last 24 hours. Some other sales seem to be drop shipped and you can tell by the 2-3 week wait time for delivery on some products. Overall, this site definitely has the best and most regularly updated selection, but the drop shipping makes for a rather irksome customer experience. Gilt is also launching a travel website – JetSetter – and has already launched a women’s only site – Gilt Fuse – so keep your eyes peeled for even more great bargains on other types of products. You can access all sites with one account and your invite is right here.

Rue La La is yet another competitor and supposedly is on track for $130 million in sales this year. The site sets itself up as “mini boutiques” and sells all sorts of aspirational products. I’ve seen a Cuisinart sale and there’s an upcoming sale on Patz and Hall wines. There’s cutlery, jewelry, and just about anything you’ve probably ogled but not had the money to buy. Prices range, but it seems the initial sales tend to be more expensive than on Gilt (but still 40-60% off of retail price). In contrast to Gilt, which seems to have inventories so limited that everything sells in the first go, Rue La La is currently running “final sales” for many of the apparel brands for which prices have been lowered even more! The benefit at Rue La La is also that sales typically last more than one day and most products ship in 3 to 4 days which makes it a bit easier to spend some time thinking about what you want to buy rather than the impulse feel of Gilt. Again, your invite is right here.
Finally, Haute Look. Haute look has womens, mens, and kids gear as well as home goods. The site isn’t quite as pretty as Rue La La, but the concept is similar. Individual “boutiques” for each brand and staggered sales opening at different points each day. The collection is a bit more eclectic and not quite as “couture” as the previous two sites. For example, there’s currently a sale for sports memorabilia. I haven’t spent enough time digging through Haute Look, but you can now get there before me! Here’s your invite.

Though it’s been happening for the last six months, the dollar’s weakening seems to have hit a head over last six months. Moreover, it seems that gold has directly offset the weakening dollar. Could this mean that, contrary to popular belief, investors are actually fleeing to the quality of gold as opposed to increasing their appetite for risk? Ken Phillips warned us in Bad Money that U.S. dollar supremacy could weaken if we don’t move to realign American political and economic interests, could it already be too late? Is gold poised to become the global reserve “currency”?

Thoughts on Gold from the Blogosphere

• INO.com presents a terrific video applying technical analysis on long term gold spot prices. This was posted Wednesday, and it seems they were on point in predicting gold’s breakout through $1,000/ounce by the end of the week.
• follows up last week’s post with an even stronger post illustrating their gold investment thesis.

Insight on the U.S. Economy

• John Robb of Global Guerrillas posts an interesting graph depicting the decline of the USSR and how it may also apply to the United States today.
• Bubble Meter believes unemployment may get worse before it gets better.
• Naked Capitalism follows up with an even more detailed analysis on “How Bad Unemployment Will Get“.

Investment Ideas

• Contrarian Profits believes a tradeable bounce in U.S. equities is on the way, but not before a pullback testing support.
• I actually managed to find something of value in Motley Fool’s torrent of daily postings – An analysis of the best stocks following the Great Depression. Could this help us?
• Brad Ferris of Triage Capital Management presents his methodology for determining value as well as a few stock picks.
• Vitaliy Katsenelson, author of Active Value Investing, writes a guest post on Zero Hedge outlining the value of disciplined investment process.
• I recently recommended Proctor & Gamble on this blog, it seems the Dividends Value agrees and has posted an enlightening analysis of management’s recent statements on P&G’s performance.

Market Commentary

• Bill Gross, bond-king at PIMCO, released his most recent commentary, “On the ‘course’ to a new normal.”
• Bespoke Investment Group publishes its analysis of US stock returns vs. foreign market indexes in local currency. It’s not pretty.
• The Economic Policy Institute believes unemployment is soaring to historical heights.
• Angry Bear takes a look at polling results which show that most Americans are in favor of progressive taxes.

Investment Ideas

• Market Folly reports that Peter Thiel and Paul Tudor Jones’ respective hedge funds are betting against a sustained recovery in US equities.
• Contrarian Profits believes REITs remain a dangerous asset class.
• Value Plays takes a short term and long term look at Sears.