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Posted by Dan Hung

at September 1, 2009

Buy ultram without prescription, As some members may know, The Curious Investor is a member of the Forbes.com blog network. This week, cheap ultram tablets, Certified ultram, they've organized the bloggers to answer the prompt:

What is your economic forecast for 2010. Are there specific economic markers that you find particularly useful and upon which you rely on in making your prediction?

From my perspective, ultram generic, Ultram online stores, the United States economy for the last decade has serial bubbled its way to the illusion of wealth. First the internet bubble and then cheap credit financing a housing bubble lined the American consumer's pockets with a seemingly endless growth in wealth, ultram overnight shipping. Ultram online without a prescription, Now, without the benefit of another asset to quickly inflate, ultram online review, Cheap ultram no prescription, it would seem that we're facing a longterm retrenchment of the consumer as he begins to realize that the last ten years of "wealth creation" may have been quite illusory. To make matters worse, declining consumer demand and tightened credit markets have pushed unemployment rates to new highs further burdening the consumer, buy ultram without prescription. To me, buy cheapest ultram online, Discount ultram overnight delivery, any real sustainable turnaround in our economy will have to be lead by a sustainable growth in demand from the American consumer and for this to tangibly affect the "real economy." That is the provision of tangible goods in the United States as opposed to our tail-wagging-the-dog reliance of financial services as an engine for growth. Indicators for Economy 2010

In the above graph, cheap ultram overnight delivery, No rx ultram, we see a decided inverse relationship between U.S. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization versus the Unemployment Rate, get ultram. Order discount ultram online, Now, this may be a little bit of chicken or the egg, find ultram no prescription required, Ultram drug, but it's clear to me that the linchpin of any sustainable economic rebound will be a rebound in real production through manufacturing. Buy ultram without prescription, Increased capacity utilization improves employment, spurs new investment which in turn spurs finance, and thus feeds the demand for corporate services and other "soft" services in the industry. So, buy generic ultram, Ultram no prescription, how will we know that we're on solid footing again. I believe that close attention must be paid to three statistics compiled by the economic census - manufacturing shipments, cost of ultram, Cheap ultram no rx, orders, and inventories, ultram internet. Order cheap ultram online, In the above graph, quarter-over-quarter inventory growth clearly mimics and leads manufacturing capacity utilization, buy ultram generic. Buy ultram us, Admittedly, the link to inventories does not seem predictive enough for those of us hoping to get ahead of the rebound, order ultram no rx. My proposal is to use a metric derived from the census orders and shipments data which I call national book to bill, buy ultram without prescription. Ultram buy drug, For those unfamiliar with book-to-bill ratios, it is the number of orders in a company's order book versus the number of orders filled in a given period, find cheap ultram. Purchase ultram no rx, Typically used in the technology sector, this number gives us an idea of whether or not there's sustained demand for a company's supply, canadian ultram. Buy ultram from canada, Similarly, we can create such a metric based on census numbers by dividing new orders by shipments, buying ultram online. Ultram cheapest price, Book-to-bill ratios greater than 1.0 imply order demand in excess of supply and less than 1.0 imply insufficient demand. U.S, <b>ultram for sale</b>. <b>Cheap ultram from canada</b>, National Book to Bill

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Above, we see book-to-bill graphed against quarter-over-quarter change in inventories between 1997 and 2009 which incorporates both bubbles, ultram buy online. Ultram for order, First and foremost, we see the beginnings of a deterioration between book to bill leading inventory accumulation, find cheap ultram. Compare ultram prices online, Instead, particularly between 2003 and 2005, buy ultram in us, Buy ultram pills, inventory accumulation begins to lead the book to bill ratio. To me, this is a tell tale sign of unsustainable growth through "inventory stuffing" - the build up of inventory due to euphoric projections of the future. Most recently, we see book-to-bill making a small turn ahead of the bottom in inventory growth and could well signal that we've reached the bottom for our current cycle. Obviously, in my mind, we will not be truly in the clear until the "national book to bill" ratio improves above parity (1.0) and along with it comes increased plant capacity utillization and employment.

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 30, 2009

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Buy clomid without prescription, After yet another positive week in the markets, it seems the blogosphere is a buzz with warnings to get defensive. Personally, where to order clomid, Purchase clomid overnight delivery, I understand the call towards defensive positions, but I still believe the best investments are not those based on top-down trends, order clomid in canada. Clomid india, Instead, I like to focus on a concentrated portfolio of well-researched, buy clomid from us, Best price clomid, fundamentally driven investments.

Economic and Market Outlook

Sean Maher of Dead Cats Bouncing reminds us that, lowest price clomid, Clomid vendors, despite a "stunning" rally in various equity markets, risks still loom large to a sustained global recovery.

Doug Kass gives us his ten reasons for why the market rebound is premature.

The Telegraph wonders if Ben Bernanke is the right man to lead us back to sustainable prosperity, order clomid. Buy no rx clomid, Can he handle the "exit strategy" - shrinking the fed balance sheet, combat runaway inflation - with as much boldness as he did in attempting to stem the recession?

Barry Ritholz of The Big Picture provides an analysis of market rebounds and corrections during a secular bear market.

Bespoke Investment Group backs up the negative sentiment with its composite of monthly Dow Jones returns, discount clomid without prescription. Buy clomid us, Turns out, September is typically the worst month of the year for investors.

So, clomid online review, Cheap clomid in canada, where should you put your money?!

reminds everyone not to forget about gold.

Jae Jun at Old School Value takes a look at Warren Buffet's portfolio and gives a rundown of his valuation estimates.

Market Folly digs into Harbinger Capital's SEC filings and finds that they've begun accumulating natural resources exposure.

Dividend Growth Investor takes a look at dipping back into financial stocks. You might be surprised at where he's looking.

The Dividend Guy (echoing my sentiment on retirement investing) focuses on asset allocation for risk management.

Other Articles of Interest

In response to some comments on my post "Five Dividend Stocks for those that Missed the Rally", cheap clomid no rx, Buy clomid on internet, I'll refer to Dividend Tree's most recent article describing the value of both capital appreciation and dividends to investment return.

Spurred by VC-cum-online celebrity Fred Wilson's post on "Books for Entrepreneurs," check out this great wiki compiling must read books for entrepreneurs.

That's all for this week, clomid, Cheap clomid without prescription, folks. Feel free to add your best links to the comments or contact me if you'd like to submit your article for next week/sponsor next week's recap ala Pinnacle Digest in our August 16, clomid pharmacy, Cheapest clomid price, 2009 post. No rx clomid. Clomid overnight. No prescription clomid. Cost clomid. Clomid free delivery. Order generic clomid. Cheap clomid in usa. Cheap generic clomid. Clomid medicine. Compare clomid prices. Discount clomid no rx. Order discount clomid online. Buy cheapest clomid online. Approved clomid pharmacy. Discount clomid. Buy clomid low price. Clomid sales. Clomid in australia. Clomid prescription. Get clomid.

Weekend Diversions, Weekend Recap

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 27, 2009

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I've talked a lot about net working capital Buy accutane without prescription, in several of my posts. In fact, accutane medication, Order accutane no rx, I used it in my post this Monday when trying to determine Apple's distributable cash. For those that felt lost, price of accutane, Accutane for order, I had once described this process in my post on how to analyze businesses in a recession. Upon looking over these posts, accutane malaysia, Buy generic accutane, I've realized that some who are unfamiliar with working capital metrics and how they work may remain confused so I'm going to try to make it even clearer.

For this case study, buy accutane, Order accutane from canada, it will help to know how to calculate various working capital turnover metrics - Receivable Days, Inventory Days, accutane overnight shipping, Purchase accutane no rx, and Payable Days. You can find that in my Fundamental Analysis Series, buy accutane without prescription. But, accutane generic, Accutane cheapest price, I'll review it quickly as we go.

Working Capital Case Studies

Here, buy accutane online, Low price accutane, we have two businesses. Jimmy's Computer Builders is a computer business for which customers order a computer, accutane pill, Buy discount accutane, pay money immediately, and then Jimmy builds the computers and sends them to the customer ten days later, buying generic accutane. Accutane sale, Joey's No-Money Down Computers is trying to win over customers by offering to allow customers to pay for their computers 60 days after they order them. Buy accutane without prescription, Otherwise, Joey operates exactly the same as Jimmy's by building computers within ten days. Both companies use the same suppliers and have received 30-day terms, cheap accutane. Buy accutane online australia, That is, their suppliers expect to be paid within 30 days of delivering parts to the businesses.

Despite operating basically the same business, buy generic accutane online, Accutane no rx required, Jimmy has negative net working capital of $3,288 where as Joey has positive net working capital of $4, order accutane on internet, Buy accutane from india, 932. What does this mean, order discount accutane. Accutane for sale, It means that Jimmy's business "creates" $3,288 of cash simply by operating, buy accutane without prescription. He collects money up front, buys parts, builds the computers, sends them to the customer and then leisurely pays back his suppliers, buy accutane without prescription. Order cheap accutane online, Joey's business, on the other hand, accutane in malaysia, Drug accutane online purchase, requires $4,932 to operate, accutane cheap drug. Buy accutane online cheap, He needs to find a way to get cash, buy parts, canadian pharmacy accutane, Buy accutane from canada, build the computers, then pay his suppliers all before getting any money from his customers.

What we've just described is each business' cash conversion cycle (CCC), accutane online cheap. Buying accutane online, The CCC determines how much financing a Company needs to operate and grow or how well a Company may be able to finance its own growth and operations. Let's look at these two businesses one at a time.

Jimmy's Computer Builders (Upfront Payments)
In the case of Jimmy's business, buy accutane lowest price, Buy accutane overnight delivery, as the Company receives more and more customers, each customer pays up front and allows Jimmy to use their money to finance his business' growth as he can take their payments and invest in new inventory to build and sell, buy cheap accutane. Jimmy has a negative working capital business Buy accutane without prescription, . For Jimmy, however, if business tapers off or he's forced to liquidate, he will lose the benefit of new cash but still have suppliers to pay. Discount accutane online, As such, in a downturn, Jimmy cannot be complacent with his cash management. In a larger sense, he can't be taking all his extra cash and dividending to his shareholders or investing in new projects unless his business is stable or consistently growing.

Joey's No-Money Down Computers (Delayed Payments)
Joey, on the other hand, requires financing to get his business started. He needs to find money (probably through issued debt) in order to get inventories and pay suppliers while he waits for his customers to pay 60 days later. Joey has a positive working capital (think: he requires capital to do work) business, buy accutane without prescription. As Joey's business grows, he will need more and more outside financing to invest to service his increasing customers. This could be difficult and limiting. On the other hand, if Joey's business cycles down, he should theoretically be able to collect his receivables and pay his suppliers as well as the debt he incurred to run the business. There is however, more payment risk as some customers may just not pay and Joey will be left holding the bag for having spent time and money building a computer.

Cash Conversion Cycle Days Buy accutane without prescription, Just how much of his business can Jimmy self finance. Or, how much cash does Joey need to finance his business. This is calculated by a simple equation:

Cash Conversion Days = Inventory Days + Receivable Days - Payable Days

Basically, the time it takes to turn your inventory into sales plus the amount of time it takes to receive cash from each sale minus the days you have to pay your suppliers shows how many days worth of cash you business either makes available or consumes. Inventory days is calculated by dividing average annual inventory by cost of goods sold (inventory turns) and multiplying by 365. Receivable days is calcuated by dividing average annual receivables by sales (receivable turns) and multiplying by 365. And, finally, payable days is calculated by dividing average annual payables by cost of goods sold (payable turns) and multiplying by 365.

As to be expected by the negative working capital, Jimmy's Computer Builders creates 20 days worth of cash. This implies that Jimmy has 20 days to freely use a customer's payments before either getting more cash from other customers (if the business is growing) or using this cash to pay off his current liabilities (in our example his suppliers). On the other hand, as implied by Joey's positive working capital, Joey 's business has a 10 day CCC which implies that he needs outside financing of 10 days worth of operating cash in order to keep his business operating smoothly.

Fundamental Analysis, Tutorials

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 25, 2009

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Buy zoloft without prescription, Just a little digression tonight, the Megamillions jackpot is up to $252 million tonight and I thought it'd be fun to do a little quick analysis of your chances of winning. Zoloft canada, For those that don't know, the game is played by choosing five numbers from a set of 1 to 56 (without reptition) and then a "megaball" number between 1 and 46, buy zoloft canada. Zoloft online, So, for those that know a little about probability, zoloft price, Generic zoloft, there are (56C5)*46=175,711, order zoloft from us, Canadian zoloft, 536 different permutations of numbers that you can choose. Rather than go through all the probabilities of winning, purchase zoloft, Zoloft online stores, the lottery actually publishes its own listing of probabilities to help you out. Check it out below:

Megamillions Probabilities

So, drug zoloft, Zoloft pharmacy online, knowing these probabilities, let's calculate expected values, zoloft us. Expected values are calculated simply by multiplying the expected result by the probability of it happening, buy zoloft without prescription. Cheap zoloft from uk, Here's how we would do it for playing the Megamillions.

Subtract $1 from all the payouts listed in the above table (the cost of playing)

Multiply each payout by the probability of it happening and sum them

Calculate the probability of not winning anything (1-sum of the probabilities of winning)

Multiply the probability of not winning by -$1 (the cost of playing)

Add this to the result from Step 2

At a $252 million jackpot, the expected value of buying a lottery ticket is $0.61, zoloft cost. Order zoloft online, That means that if you spend $1 to buy a ticket, you can expect to see a return of 61 cents, buy zoloft in canada, Buying zoloft, or less than you "invested" in the game. Probabilistically, zoloft in bangkok, Online zoloft, it's entirely not worth it to play.

What would the jackpot have to be to make it "worthwhile" to play, cheap zoloft tablets. Buy zoloft without prescription, Backing into an expected value of $1 for playing yields a target jackpot of $320 million. Order zoloft no prescription, Obviously, the above scenarios ignore two important facts, buy zoloft online without prescription. Find discount zoloft online, First, you face taxes on any money you win (except winnings <$600 which you can get in cash at your local convenience store and probably not report.., best price for zoloft. Zoloft online pharmacy, not that I advocate not paying your taxes...). Second, zoloft order, Zoloft cheap, the "lump sum" jackpot is usually approximatly 40% less than the headline jackpot number. So, the real "breakeven" expectation jackpot is more like $904 million, buy zoloft without prescription.

So, zoloft alternative, Zoloft tablets, let's bring this back to some practical lessons for investing. First and foremost, zoloft bangkok, Purchase zoloft without prescription, "rational" investors should never play a game that has an expectation below the amount you pay to play. Yet, order zoloft overnight delivery, Certified zoloft, somehow, the record Megamillions jackpot is $365 million, zoloft non prescription. Zoloft drug, Thus, it would seem there's a large amount of people out there willing to play the game well before any rational expectation of winning, zoloft without a prescription, Zoloft online without prescription, let alone a miniscule probability of winning the jackpot. Buy zoloft without prescription, If so many are willing to spend even a dollar on the lottery, how are we so sure that capital markets are efficient!.

Arguments against popularly held market theories aside, buy cheap zoloft internet, Buy zoloft internet, it's clear that people are irrationally willing to play games of chance. If this is true, zoloft free sample, then might this point us to an interesting investment thesis. Why not invest in purveyors of games of chance. Casinos and gaming is a massive industry and there are many publicly traded options available. Publicly traded casino operators include MGM Mirage (MGM), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) all trade publicly, buy zoloft without prescription. Some racetrack and slot machine operators are publicly traded as well like Churchill Downs (CHDN), Penn National Gaming (PENN), and Empire Resorts(NYNY). Then, there are the Companies which supply these gaming operators - International Game Technologies (IGT), Bally Technologies (BYI), and WMS Industries (WMS).

Or, you could just go after investments in all things vice - gaming, tobacco, and firearms - as described in my article from February of last year - Indulge Your Vices.

Full disclosure: No positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post. .

Curious Investments, Market Commentary

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 24, 2009

1 Comment

Buy nexium without prescription, Apple's stock is fast approaching its 52-week high of $177.50 set almost exactly 1-yar ago and seems within striking distance of its all-time high valuation near $200. Cheap nexium tablet, I wrote at the beginning of the year about Apple's intrinsic value and recommended buying the stock when it hit $89/share amid rumors of Steve Jobs' declining health and Apple's inability to continue to make hit products. The stock has appreciated almost 90% since and it would seem a good time to revisit the Company's valuation, nexium in us. Nexium no rx, My method of determining whether or not a stock is trading at a "value" is to determine the market's implied valuation. Rather than attempt to model and predict a company's operating performance, nexium professional, Cheap nexium from canada, I use the current market value to back into implied growth rates. Then, I try to make a decision as far as how realistic the market implied growth rate actually is, buy nexium without prescription. In the end, free nexium, Buy nexium on line, we retail investor without the ability to control the company's we invest in are merely trying to determine reasonable prices at which to "buy growth."

Calculating Apple's Market Implied Growth Rate

Step 1: Excess asset value
The foundation for a stock's value is the intrinsic value of the Company's assets. Not all of the Company's assets are distributable, nexium buy drug. Order nexium no prescription required, Obviously, some baseline level of assets are necessary in order for the Company to operate as going concern, purchase nexium online. Nexium uk, As such, we'll leave long term assets alone and focus instead on current assets and working capital, nexium discount. Buy nexium without prescription, As of June 27, 2009, Apple reported negative net working capital (exclusive of cash) of -$5.8 billion. Where to buy nexium, This implies that the Company is able to generate cash through its operations. As such, buy nexium no rx, Cheap nexium no prescription, it is possible that the company could finance its growth through operations and this would mean that, as a going concern, buy cheapest nexium, Cost of nexium, Apple has no immediate need for cash on its balance sheet. Thus, buy cheap nexium online, Nexium from india, the $24.3 billion in cash and short term equivalents on the Company's balance sheet is effectively distributable.

To be conservative, nexium online without a prescription, Order nexium in us, however, let's discount this cash, nexium from canada. After all, management has shown no intention of distributing cash to shareholders and as long as this value held at Apple, there is risk to investor's ability to realize it, buy nexium without prescription. Discount nexium overnight delivery, Most conservatively, Apple should hold enough cash to cover the entirety of its liabilities in excess of other current assets, cheap nexium on internet. Cheapest nexium online, This implies $11.4 billion of the $24.3 billion should be reserved. Thus, cheapest nexium, Find cheap nexium online, Apple's excess distributable asset value is between $12.9 billion and $24.3 billion.

Step 2: Value of Cash Flows
Now, nexium information, Cheap nexium pill, we begin a "reverse" DCF analysis on Apple. Buy nexium without prescription, Over the trailing twelve months, Apple has generated free cash flow (defined for simplicity as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) of $10.3 billion.

At zero growth and a 12% discount rate, generic nexium online, Cheap nexium internet, the present value of cash flows is worth $85.5 billion.

At zero growth, cheapest generic nexium online, Cheap nexium from usa, Apple's cash flows in addition to excess distributable asset value would be somewhere between $85.5 billion and $109.8 billion.

This implies upwards of a 27.5% downside to Apple's current valuation ($151.5 billion market cap) if it growth were to stall indefinitely, cheapest generic nexium. Nexium rx, Step 3: Market implied growth rate
This is where the analysis can get tricky. I typically, like to make the simplifying assumption that most company's will have about 5-years of additional growth before slowing to a growth rate closer to GDP (2-3%), buy nexium without prescription.

Assuming that Apple will mature in five years and reach a baseline 2% growth rate, buy nexium no prescription required, Nexium no online prescription, the 5-year implied growth which would justify Apple's current $151.5 billion market cap would be 14%.

Does 14% seem like a reasonable year-over-year cash flow growth rate for Apple's next five years. That would be the "over/under" necessary if you're willing to invest new money in Apple today, nexium cheap price. Find nexium online, Next time someone tells you Apple is "fairly valued," you'll know they don't think significant performance beyond this level is likely, nexium tablet.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing..

Curious Investments, Stock Analysis

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Posted by Dan Hung

at August 22, 2009

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Buy wellbutrin sr without prescription, The S&P is over the magical 1,000 barrier and things are feeling exuberant in the stock markets again. But, buy wellbutrin sr cheap, Cheap wellbutrin sr online, could this just be a false start. It seems some pretty smart bloggers are starting to sound the "come back to earth bell." Here's my run down of some of the best and most interesting articles I've read this week, cheap wellbutrin sr in uk. Find discount wellbutrin sr,

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns warns that consumer spending could be weak for years.

Naked Capitalism echoes this sentiment and gives some reasons for why we should expect a pullback at some point in the near future.

James Hamilton of EconBrowser asks us whether the glass is half empty or half full featuring two charts plotting our recent rebound vs, overnight wellbutrin sr. rebounds of various other bear markets, buy wellbutrin sr without prescription. Find wellbutrin sr, (For those who didn't realize, in 1930, wellbutrin sr internet, Buy wellbutrin sr once daily, the Dow rallied 51% about 100 days after the bottom during the Great Depression only to fall further and deeper for the next two years.)*

* Source material for the EconBrowser Post can be found on Doug Short's original post and Calculated Risk's rebuttal.

It seems, find wellbutrin sr without prescription, Wellbutrin sr overnight delivery, however, that the popular media and policy experts are seeing signs that the recovery has begun, sale wellbutrin sr. Online pharmacy wellbutrin sr, Is our biggest problem now inflation.

Reuters reports that the Fed may not be able to hold rates low enough to stimulate the economy and fight inflation at the same time.

MarketWatch reports that the IMF believes the recovery has begun but that the path to growth will be slow.

ZachStocks provides his thoughts on Ben Bernanke's recent comments on the returning health of the economy.

Chad Brand of Peridot Capitalist looks at how inflation may help us improve our deficit numbers in lieu of increased taxes.*

* I may disagree a bit with Chad's analysis, cheapest wellbutrin sr prices. Buy wellbutrin sr without prescription, He uses Debt-to-GDP as a measure of financial health. Cheap price wellbutrin sr, This, however, lowest price for wellbutrin sr, Wellbutrin sr buy, ignores that there's still some nominal amount of debt thatwill need to be repaid. Granted, order wellbutrin sr without prescription, Order cheap wellbutrin sr, one assumes that higher GDP (inflated or not) creates higher tax revenues, but then, wellbutrin sr prices, Low cost wellbutrin sr, why haven't we managed to reduce debt on a nominal basis.

On a side note, wellbutrin sr online sales, Wellbutrin sr online sale, the current health reform debate going on in Washington DC and at town hall meetings around the nation is a very important topic to me and I would like to do my part in helping people get informed. So, pharmacy wellbutrin sr, Buy discount wellbutrin sr online, this week, I've collected some great posts on healthcare in America, wellbutrin sr without prescription. Canada wellbutrin sr, Please take some time to read them.

Income inequality and healthcare - Eliot Spitzer

An Honest look at American Healthcare vs, buy wellbutrin sr generic. Fda approved wellbutrin sr, the NHS - The Economist

Healthcare reform in steps - The Economist

The Health Insurance Program Reality Check

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