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Dan Hung — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:40:45 +0000

I've written extensively about Apple this past year Buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, . And, fda approved yagara (herbal viagra), Cheap yagara (herbal viagra) online, not without reason. Investing in the stock has been a very fun ride ($89 - $200 in a little over 6 months), purchase yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription. Order generic yagara (herbal viagra), The Company whether it be delighting users with new products or frustrating users with its mismanagement of the iPhone app approval process has managed to stay in the headlines and, as a result, yagara (herbal viagra) without a prescription, Cheap yagara (herbal viagra) pharmacy, remains a plentiful mine for content. Because Apple has a contentious group of zealous fanboys, buy yagara (herbal viagra) canada, Cheapest yagara (herbal viagra) prices, let me start with my Apple Investor Disclaimer and then get on with the post. This is specifically for mac fanboys, so those who have an open mind and understand how one can have a differing views of a Company and the Company's stock valuation, just skip the blockquote below, buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription.

I, yagara (herbal viagra) canada, Cheap yagara (herbal viagra) tablets, the author of The Curious Investor, am currently long Apple stock, purchase yagara (herbal viagra) no rx. Cheapest yagara (herbal viagra), In fact, it makes up nearly 10% of my personal portfolio, price of yagara (herbal viagra). Yagara (herbal viagra) prices, In my apartment are multiple Apple products including several iPhones, several iterations of the iPod, buy cheap yagara (herbal viagra) internet, Yagara (herbal viagra) discount, a MacBook, and an Airport Express, yagara (herbal viagra) pills. Yagara (herbal viagra) pill, I believe Apple is more than just a trendy consumer products maker and that the iPhone truly represents a new growth engine as the world embraces mobile computing. Buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, As an investor, however, I understand that stocks do not only move in one direction. Valuations will overshoot and undershoot true value in the short term and a prudent investor must be aware of this and make decisions with this phenomenon in mind, yagara (herbal viagra) online sales. Cheap yagara (herbal viagra) no rx, It is possible for a great company to possess a not very great stock valuation (see: CSCO circa 1999-2000). So, best price yagara (herbal viagra), Approved yagara (herbal viagra) pharmacy, please, leave your hate mail unsent.

Take a look at the chart below:

Apple's stock gapped up through the psychologically significant barrier of $200/share following Apple's earnings announcement last Monday, lowest price for yagara (herbal viagra). Yagara (herbal viagra) no rx required, A headline related pop typically signals a breakaway gap, a stock gap which is typically followed by a continuation but, cheapest generic yagara (herbal viagra), Buy yagara (herbal viagra) internet, in this case, Apple's gap was more suspicious, yagara (herbal viagra) no prescription. While related to good news, Apple's Q4 2009 (FYE 9/26) results were not so much of an upside surprise as previous quarters and investors all but dismissed another characteristically conservative guidance, buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription. Generic yagara (herbal viagra) cheap, Moreover, volume doubled prior to the gap up and remained elevated during the stock's near immediate fall over the last five trading periods, order yagara (herbal viagra) from canada, Buy discount yagara (herbal viagra) online, a tell tale signal of an exhaustion gap.

Exhaustion gaps are defined as stock price gaps which follow in the direction of the prevailing trend. A textbook exhaustion gap should be followed by a reversal soon after the gap and then move to fill the original gap, yagara (herbal viagra) online review. Yagara (herbal viagra) side effects, A reversal is confirmed when the gap is filled and price breaches the level prior to the gap.

I realize that I may be early to call this reversal. After all, buy yagara (herbal viagra) online cheap, Discount yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, technical analysis is not clairvoyance. Buy yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription, Trends and reversals must be confirmed through chart movements as opposed to "predicted" by the apparent formation of patterns. Traditional technical analysts will always miss the exact top or bottom of a price movement in preference to investing with the certitude of a confirmed trend or reversal, yagara (herbal viagra) without prescription. Where to order yagara (herbal viagra), As such, it would seem that the seeming formation of an exhaustion gap here is just a red flag, yagara (herbal viagra) overnight. Find yagara (herbal viagra), Apple's stock has yet to fill the gap, but it has breached the initial gap and looks to be on its way to filling the gap, yagara (herbal viagra) generic. Yagara (herbal viagra) non prescription, If so, could it be possible that the Company's stock is headed for a reversal of its uptrend. Or, possibly entering a consolidation period following an aggressive upward move. If so, it may be time to take some gains off the table and wait for a re-entry point.

Full disclosure: Author is currently long shares of AAPL.

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Dan Hung — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 02:57:45 +0000

Buy nexium without prescription, Apple's stock is fast approaching its 52-week high of $177.50 set almost exactly 1-yar ago and seems within striking distance of its all-time high valuation near $200. Certified nexium, I wrote at the beginning of the year about Apple's intrinsic value and recommended buying the stock when it hit $89/share amid rumors of Steve Jobs' declining health and Apple's inability to continue to make hit products. The stock has appreciated almost 90% since and it would seem a good time to revisit the Company's valuation, nexium internet. Nexium australia, My method of determining whether or not a stock is trading at a "value" is to determine the market's implied valuation. Rather than attempt to model and predict a company's operating performance, nexium without prescription, Nexium online sales, I use the current market value to back into implied growth rates. Then, I try to make a decision as far as how realistic the market implied growth rate actually is, buy nexium without prescription. In the end, order nexium in us, Buy nexium on internet, we retail investor without the ability to control the company's we invest in are merely trying to determine reasonable prices at which to "buy growth."

Calculating Apple's Market Implied Growth Rate

Step 1: Excess asset value
The foundation for a stock's value is the intrinsic value of the Company's assets. Not all of the Company's assets are distributable, lowest price for nexium. Nexium drug, Obviously, some baseline level of assets are necessary in order for the Company to operate as going concern, nexium online without a prescription. Nexium pill, As such, we'll leave long term assets alone and focus instead on current assets and working capital, buy nexium us. Buy nexium without prescription, As of June 27, 2009, Apple reported negative net working capital (exclusive of cash) of -$5.8 billion. Buy nexium from us, This implies that the Company is able to generate cash through its operations. As such, lowest price nexium, Fda approved nexium, it is possible that the company could finance its growth through operations and this would mean that, as a going concern, nexium prices, Compare nexium prices, Apple has no immediate need for cash on its balance sheet. Thus, nexium prescription, Nexium online, the $24.3 billion in cash and short term equivalents on the Company's balance sheet is effectively distributable.

To be conservative, get nexium, Cost nexium, however, let's discount this cash, nexium pills. After all, management has shown no intention of distributing cash to shareholders and as long as this value held at Apple, there is risk to investor's ability to realize it, buy nexium without prescription. Cheap nexium overnight delivery, Most conservatively, Apple should hold enough cash to cover the entirety of its liabilities in excess of other current assets, online pharmacy nexium. Buy cheapest nexium, This implies $11.4 billion of the $24.3 billion should be reserved. Thus, purchase nexium, Generic nexium cheap, Apple's excess distributable asset value is between $12.9 billion and $24.3 billion.

Step 2: Value of Cash Flows
Now, nexium from india, Nexium sale, we begin a "reverse" DCF analysis on Apple. Buy nexium without prescription, Over the trailing twelve months, Apple has generated free cash flow (defined for simplicity as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) of $10.3 billion.

At zero growth and a 12% discount rate, nexium uk, Buy nexium from india, the present value of cash flows is worth $85.5 billion.

At zero growth, nexium without a prescription, Canadian nexium, Apple's cash flows in addition to excess distributable asset value would be somewhere between $85.5 billion and $109.8 billion.

This implies upwards of a 27.5% downside to Apple's current valuation ($151.5 billion market cap) if it growth were to stall indefinitely, nexium buy drug. Cheap nexium without prescription, Step 3: Market implied growth rate
This is where the analysis can get tricky. I typically, like to make the simplifying assumption that most company's will have about 5-years of additional growth before slowing to a growth rate closer to GDP (2-3%), buy nexium without prescription.

Assuming that Apple will mature in five years and reach a baseline 2% growth rate, nexium price, Nexium purchase, the 5-year implied growth which would justify Apple's current $151.5 billion market cap would be 14%.

Does 14% seem like a reasonable year-over-year cash flow growth rate for Apple's next five years. That would be the "over/under" necessary if you're willing to invest new money in Apple today, find cheap nexium. Order nexium on internet, Next time someone tells you Apple is "fairly valued," you'll know they don't think significant performance beyond this level is likely, buy nexium on line.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of AAPL at the time of writing..

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Dan Hung — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 04:52:29 +0000

Buy cipro without prescription, Over the last year, "cash is king" has become the modus operandi for companies everywhere. Cipro online without a prescription, In an environment where revenues are declining and credit markets are difficult to access, the conservation of cash is an important aspect of maintaining the business and living through the recession, cheap cipro in uk. Cipro sales, To gain a better view of the cash flow generation ability of a business, a lot of focus has been put on free cash flow and, cipro no rx required, Cipro pharmacy, in many instances, EBITDA in various valuations as price-to-earnings has become less and less meaningful in a market where earnings visibility is at a minimum and valuation multiples are volatile, buying cipro. Cipro rx, One aspect that many investors overlook, however, cipro alternative, Find cheap cipro online, is working capital. Most retail investors view working capital as strictly current assets - current liabilities and view it as a glorified quick ratio, find cipro. Working capital analysis, however, is much more useful than simply a measure of solvency, buy cipro without prescription. Discount cipro without prescription, If one defines working capital as current assets ex cash minus current liabilities, then the resulting "working capital" determines an important characteristic of the business and its ability to generate liquidity through its operations, pharmacy cipro. Cipro without a prescription, Positive working capital (ex-cash) businesses maintain current assets in excess of their current liabilities. This implies that, order cipro on internet, Discount cipro, in order to maintain operations, a business must invest siginificantly in inventory or pre-paid expenses before being able to receive cash from its customers, cipro. Drug cipro, An example might include a rapidly growing retailer like Urban Outfitters (URBN). Buy cipro without prescription, As of January 31, 2009, the Company had $167 million in working capital (ex-cash) which would represent more than 50% of its cash balance. This build up of assets requires some form of funding either by consuming the Company's cash on hand or forcing the issuance of long term liabilities (debt), buy cipro overnight delivery. Order cipro in us, The assumption is that, by investing in these assets, overnight cipro, Cipro from india, the Company will be able to drive increased sales (and consequently increased cash flows).

Negative net working capital businesses are able either maintain current liabilities in excess of current assets. An example of this might be a computer manufacturer which is able to book sales and receive cash from customers before actually buying materials to make their computers (i.e, cipro online. Cipro from canada, Dell). Thus, instead of having fund increasingly larger investments in parts inventory or other expenses, the company can simply sell and collect payments from customers and use these to buy the parts necessary to complete orders (thus creating significant current liabilities).

Working capital analysis is important in understanding just how a business operates and creates value, buy cipro without prescription. Further, cipro vendors, Cipro uk, in a recessionary market, it gives an idea of the cash need or cash generation ability of a business' operations when under stress, find cheap cipro. Order cipro cheap online, Positive net working capital businesses require significant funding through cash on hand or through credit markets in order to continue growing, but will not be as seriously affected by declining revenues as they can liquidate current assets on hand to meet operating obligations, cost of cipro. Buy cipro from india, Negative net working capital businesses can scale without consuming cash or forcing the company to access external financing. They are more dangerous in downturns, order no rx cipro, Compare cipro prices online, however, and require the business to have sufficient capital to plug potential working capital needs, cheap generic cipro. Cipro canada, For example, in the case that a Company like Dell finds that customers stop purchasing computers altogether, cipro overnight, Find discount cipro online, they will no longer be able to use cash from purchases to fund continue to fund new production. Instead, cheap cipro pharmacy, Cipro drug, it will have to use cash on hand to purchase the necessary parts and services to complete orders. This is why in my analysis of Apple and Dell, buy cipro online, Cheap cipro overnight delivery, I subtract negative net working capital from the company's cash and short term investments to determine how much "excess" cash the companies are truly carrying.

Full Disclosure: Author is long shares of AAPL at the time of writing. No positions in other stocks mentioned. , buy cipro online without prescription.

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Dan Hung — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 05:38:29 +0000

Recently read an interesting article on Dell posted by Peridot Capitalist Buy armour without prescription, and thought I'd post my two cents on the topic. You may remember my recent post admonishing Dell's product strategy, best price for armour, Buy armour low price, but sometimes bad companies can still have good stocks. Could this be the case at Dell, buy cheap armour. Armour in australia, Dell's Share Performance
Dell shares are down over 60% over the past year and have been hit harder by the recession than U.S. competitors like Apple (AAPL) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ), buy armour internet. At first glance, this may lead you to believe that an opportunity may exist here to buy a company that has been unfairly punished, buy armour without prescription. Armour us, But, what you might miss is that Dell's stock has been in a 5-year funk outclassed significantly by its domestic competitors, buy generic armour. Fda approved armour,

Not only has Dell failed to match its competitors (Apple's ridiculous performance aside), it has actually consistently provided negative shareholder return over the last five years, order discount armour online. Buy armour us, Why has the market been so "unfair" to Dell. Dell is seemingly synonymous with the PC market and no one can deny that this market continues to be a stronghold for global growth despite a slowdown in Q1 2009, find armour no prescription required. Buy armour without prescription, Dell, in fact, maintains a strong #2 marketshare position. Armour buy online, To find the answer, let's take a look at Dell's performance.

Dell's Operations

Taking a quick look at historical financial provided by Gridstone Research, buy cheap armour internet. Order armour in canada, We find two interesting trends here. Despite the fact that worldwide PC shipments have never grown less than 9.5% year over year (2008, armour online review, Online pharmacy armour, 2007, 2006, armour medicine, Armour without prescription, 2005) since 2005, Dell's revenues have grown at just a 4% CAGR over the same time period, armour malaysia. Buy armour no rx, Furthermore, operating margins collapsed and stayed depressed after 2007 signalling an inability to effectively capture increasing volumes in the industry without giving up pricing, buy cheapest armour on line. Clearly, something is awry over at Dell, buy armour without prescription. Buy armour in canada,

My guess without having spent a lot of time analyzing Dell's product offerings is that, having entered the PC market as a low cost competitor, order armour no prescription, Armour information, the Company never invested in the R&D capacity to drive differentiation and new product innovation in the way that HP and Apple have over the last few years. Unfortunately, cheap armour, Discount armour no rx, with the emergence of Taiwanese and Chinese computer manufacturers like Acer and Lenovo, Dell, order armour without prescription, Free armour, being a U.S. based manufacturer, cheap armour without prescription, Buy armour once daily, lost its cost advantage and has lost its pricing strength and has been forced to take lower margins in hopes of protecting market share, the last competitive advantage it has.

Dell's Valuation
Despite poor performance justifying a handicap on its valuation, cheapest armour price, Cheap armour tablet, Dell is actually trading a seemingly outrageous valuations relative to peers. At $10.31 per share, armour price, Armour buy drug, the stock trades at 8.5x forward earnings and at a 3.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, unheard of for even the most mature of businesses let alone one in a growth industry (General Mills (GIS) for reference trades at 12x forward earnings and 9.9x EV/EBITDA), where to buy armour.

Buy armour without prescription, More fundamentally, Dell's cash and short term investments stands out on its balance sheet. Armour online sale, It has $10.8 billion in cash and short term equivalents which equates to about $5.54 in cash value on its balance sheet. 53% of its share price supported by cash on the books, armour in bangkok. Order discount armour, That's even more ridiculous than the 25% cash support in Apple's share price.

The difference, however, cheap armour in canada, Order cheap armour online, lies in the working capital needs of the two businesses as well as the operational performance of the two businesses. As I've discussed before, cash on the balance sheet can be used for many reasons. To support the business, investments in growth, or dividends to shareholders, buy armour without prescription. In the case of Apple, management has proven that it can manage the business as a going concern while generating the free cash flow necessary to not only maintain but grow the company's cash balance. This has lead to many investors believing that nearly all of Apple's cash balance could be freely distributed as additional return.

For Dell, however, it seems that declining revenues between 2008 and 2009 created a $2.5 billion working capital drain that halved operating cash flow. This makes Dell's $3 billion in net working capital (current assets ex cash - current liabilities) a more significant worry. Conservatively, the Company should reserve at least a portion of cash to cover this need. Buy armour without prescription, Next, due to the Company's lagging performance versus competitors, it would seem that some investment in R&D or restructuring will be necessary to either better differentiate its products or rationalize its cost structure. How management allocates this capital will ultimately sacrifice immediate cash value in the Company's valuation for potential ROI on management's strategic initiatives. This uncertainty, especially given management's lackluster recent history, is enough that we must handicap the rest of Dell's cash value to some degree.

Investment Conclusion
To me, Dell warrants a wait and see approach. While the stock has $5.50 in cash support, many questions remain about the long term viability of the Company's business model. I'm not calling the Company's going concern into question but, if recent performance is any indication, competition could ultimately force the business to fundamentally reset as a significantly less profitable, commoditized manufacturer as opposed to the tech industry giant it seemed poised to be become earlier this decade. In that case, $10/share would seem an appropriate valuation provided management protect current asset value, but knowing the mentality of most publicly traded companies, much effort and cash will be expended before a Company like Dell accepts such a place in the PC supply chain and, as a result, I am uncomfortable with the margin of safety on Dell even at $10/share at least until the Company defines its long term strategy or global PC shipments rebound so strongly that the rising tide can't help but carry Dell out of its gloom (in the latter case, better opportunities will still probably exist through the purchase of competitors' stocks).