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Buy gold viagra without prescription, Great chart courtesy of Zero Hedge. This is part of the reason that from a portfolio perspective, buying generic gold viagra, Buy discount gold viagra online, I always like to keep some oil exposure for diversification.

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Buy viagra super force without prescription, It seems that Google is poised to make a potential $6 billion acquisition of Groupon which has been described as $5.3 billion in upfront consideration and $700 million in performance awards for management. Buy cheap viagra super force online, Investor reaction yesterday was negative with the stock falling 4.5% and the internet appears to be on fire with bloggers and journalists bashing Google's reckless spending. Afterall, viagra super force overnight, Viagra super force uk, $6 billion is double the value Google paid for Doubleclick. It's $2 billion more than current rumored valuations for Twitter, viagra super force without rx. Viagra super force pill, Such an inflated purchase price for Groupon must surely be a sign that Google just doesn't know what to do with its cash hoard, right, viagra super force in australia. Well, before making wild declarations, let's try to put pen to paper and figure it out, buy viagra super force without prescription. Viagra super force in uk, Valuation

Let's start by throw out the Twitter and Facebook valuation comparisons. Facebook recently reached valuations between $33 billion and $50 billion on Second Market, lowest price for viagra super force. Price of viagra super force, Various online sources appear to pin Facebook's revenues anywhere from $1.2 billion to $2.0 billion in 2010. The Company only became cash flow positive in Q2 2009, cheap viagra super force without prescription. Buy viagra super force without prescription, Even by the loftiest of expectations, Facebook is trading between 16x and 25x revenue likely near 100x cash flow earnings. Viagra super force online sales, Twitter did not announce a monetization strategy until April of this year and was projecting just $140 million in 2010 revenue in 2009. If they hit their projection, cheap viagra super force tablet, Viagra super force internet, this would equate to 28x revenue. But, order cheap viagra super force online, Cheapest generic viagra super force online, let's be honest, Groupon is a vastly different business than Facebook and Twitter so let's literally "throw out" these valuations (for now), viagra super force in us. Viagra super force bangkok, To me, Groupon is best compared to an internet retailer, viagra super force drug. By way of precedent transaction, Zappos was purchased for $1.2 billion by Amazon in 2009 which was essentially a 1.2x revenue multiple, buy viagra super force without prescription. Viagra super force cheap price, However, Zappos was well known to run razor thin margins, viagra super force without prescription, Cheapest viagra super force prices, rumored to be well in the single-digits. If this is true, viagra super force generic, Lowest price viagra super force, then Zappos likely changed hands at well over a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple.

Comparing to larger, cheap viagra super force tablets, Cheapest viagra super force price, more mature e-tailers, Amazon trades at 2.6x revenue and 39.7x EV/EBITDA, viagra super force rx. Cheap viagra super force in uk, EBay trades at 4.2x revenue and 11.8x EV/EBITDA.* The disparity in these metrics likely lies in the fact that E-Bay runs high-teens operating margins and Amazon runs low-single digit margins, but Amazon has been growing revenues at over 30% year-over-year while E-Bay has seemingly hit a growth wall over the last few years, generic viagra super force. Buy viagra super force without prescription, So, what does this all mean to Groupon. Order discount viagra super force online, Consensus seems to be that Groupon will have sales around $500 million this year. However, buy viagra super force in us, Cheap viagra super force in usa, it has grown dramatically month-over-month and could be selling at a run-rate in excess of an annualized $600 million in gross sales. Assuming Groupon typically takes 50% of gross sales as its cut and then must pay overhead, find viagra super force. Compare viagra super force prices online, Groupon's overhead cost structure is likely to be significantly better than that of most tech companies with less of demand for hardware and most of its costs in personnel as the site doesn't have to do any more than handle requests one deal at a time (no videos, photos, viagra super force tablets, Buy viagra super force us, messages, etc.), real viagra super force without prescription. It's not hard to imagine that Groupon's EBITDA margins are closer to that of an EBay, and possibly better, buy viagra super force without prescription. Generic viagra super force cheap, Let's assume they are 25%. Additionally, viagra super force non prescription, Cheap viagra super force online, relative to the tech startups and tech-heavy retailers I've described above, Groupon's business model is likely working capital negative and lower capital intensity which would mean that Groupon's EBITDA quality (as a proxy for cash flow) is likely higher than the others above, buying viagra super force.

Given these qualities of the Groupon business, it would seem fair that Groupon would deserve an EV/EBITDA valuation at the high end of the range for retailers. Groupon is a younger company than Amazon, but has a business model which is fundamentally more limited, so I'll split the difference and apply the exact same multiple (39.7x). Buy viagra super force without prescription, So, how much is Groupon worth? $600 million x 25% x 39.7 = $6.0 billion. Well, suddenly I feel a little better about Google's valuation. Do you.

* I acknowledge that I've mixed enterprise value and equity value metrics, but Groupon is likely a debt-free startup, I'm taking the liberty of assuming enterprise value and equity value are close.

Considerations/Risks to the Valuation

Clearly, Google is paying a full price. Moreover, depending on which metric drive's Google's public valuation, this deal may prove to not be value accretive. Google is currently trading at 6.5x revenue but just 13.0x EV/EBITDA, buy viagra super force without prescription. Accretion/dilution aside, on a standalone basis, I wouldn't call Amazon's stock cheap and Groupon has some obvious limitations to its appeal and value proposition which could limit its trajectory.

Additionally, the above analysis is clearly based on some aggressive assumptions. Even assuming that some of them are accurate today, there are serious questions about whether Groupon can sustain high-levels of profitability given increasing competition and some criticisms by partners over the sustainability of offering 75%-90% discounts.

All this said, Google is not buying Groupon as a standalone business and a significant case could be made for valuation upside due to Groupon's strategic value. Ostensibly, Google believes that it can integrate Groupon as part of a broader customer experience platform and enable various other parts of its service offering - particularly in local advertising. If this is true, could it be possible that Groupon can create value within Google more similar to the stratospheric valuations that Facebook and Twitter and other "true web" startups garner.

Full disclosure: Author is long shares of GOOG at the time of writing. .

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at September 9, 2010

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Buy viagra oral jelly without prescription, Motley Fool printed an interesting article, "Can you trust the cash flow at Johnson & Johnson?," yesterday. Cheap viagra oral jelly on internet, The author points out that "not all cash flow is equal" and shows this graph analyzing the sources of Johnson & Johnson's freecash flow:

Johnson & Johnson shareholders can breathe a sigh of relief as the author of this article comes to the conclusion that very little of JNJ's cash flow comes from "questionable sources." In fact, the author claims just 0.9% of JNJ's cash flow is questionable, online pharmacy viagra oral jelly. Viagra oral jelly online stores, The author describes questionable cash flow as "changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, find cheap viagra oral jelly, Viagra oral jelly price, and asset sales, among others." I can't disagree with this definition as manipulating tax accounts and one-time asset sales are clearly not longterm sustainable sources of cash, sale viagra oral jelly. Viagra oral jelly tablet, That being said, from the perspective of trying to understand JNJ's cash flow which I would assume is more geared towards understanding how secure its dividend is, buy viagra oral jelly canada, Viagra oral jelly online without a prescription, I don't think that these cash flow accounts tell the whole story. Changes in working capital accounts - accounts receivable, buy viagra oral jelly on line, Buy viagra oral jelly generic, inventories, and payables - can be significant sources or uses of cash in any given year, viagra oral jelly free sample. Shrewd management of these accounts is a testament to the operational competence of a company's management team, buy viagra oral jelly without prescription. Viagra oral jelly online without prescription, Depending on working capital benefits for cash flow, however, where to buy viagra oral jelly, Viagra oral jelly for sale, is not a particularly good way to support a dividend.

So, approved viagra oral jelly pharmacy, Buy viagra oral jelly no prescription required, what metric would I use to determine "good cash flow". That is, viagra oral jelly order, No rx viagra oral jelly, sustainable cash flow generation abilities of a business. It sounds like finance hocus pocus and is often ridiculed by journalists looking to lambaste people in the finance industry, find discount viagra oral jelly online, Canadian viagra oral jelly, but EBITDA is a very powerful analytical concept. (More on this to come)

In the mean time, viagra oral jelly discount, Purchase viagra oral jelly no rx, if you'd like to learn more about working capital accounts and why cash flow and earnings do not always intersect, please check out my former posts on the topic:

Working capital - an important metric during a recession

Cash conversion cycle case studies

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Buy viagra plus without prescription, It's been a while and for that I apologize. Truth be told, viagra plus cheapest price, Discount viagra plus no rx, I had gotten my portfolio almost fully invested by mid-last year. And, find cheap viagra plus online, Buy viagra plus overnight delivery, as the stock intense rally we've seen in stocks through 2009 has turned flat since the new year, I've been much less aggressive with my personal portfolio and as such have had a lot less to say, buy generic viagra plus online. Buy discount viagra plus, Though, for those of you who follow my Covestor account, buy cheapest viagra plus on line, Buy viagra plus low price, you'll know that I have not been completely out of the markets. I'm increasingly interested in companies which do the bulk of their business internationally as I believe this is a good way to capitalize on foreign growth while being constrained with access only to U.S, viagra plus in uk. exchanges, buy viagra plus without prescription. Buy cheap viagra plus online, (By the way, does any know any good online brokerages which allow you to trade stocks internationally?)

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Proven, cost effective technology serving a large niche - Unlike traditional debit cards or credit cards, viagra plus from india, Cheap viagra plus without prescription, UEPS offers a proprietary technology which does not require always on connection to a primary host or even a bank account. Data is stored on the card and information transferred at the point of sale.

Adoption reaching critical mass - The Company has long been used by the South African Social Security Administration to distribute entitlement payments to citizens and Net1 has recently leveraged this success into a national contract with Ghana as well as a roll out of its technology in Iraq.

Operating leverage and free cash flow generation - The Company's equipment and cards are generally paid for by national governments which have chosen its system, viagra plus no online prescription. Cost viagra plus, Further, as additional customers are enrolled and begin using their cards for payments, viagra plus online without prescription, Generic viagra plus, the Company generates incremental transaction fees without significant incremental investment. Operating margins in the transaction processing segment are near 60%.

Investment Risks

Exposure to South African Social Security Administration Contract - 65% of revenues are currently generated through five provincal contracts with the SASSA, viagra plus sale. This contract has been on one-year renewal terms for the last three years as SASSA attempts to bid the contract through a formal RFP process, buy viagra plus without prescription. Viagra plus overnight shipping, The last RFP process ended almost a year ago without a resolution and Net1's current contract in South Africa is set to expire on March 31, 2010.

Exposure to South African Rand - The majority of the Company's costs and revenues are denominated in South African Rands, buy viagra plus on line. Cheap viagra plus in usa, While exchange rate fluctuations will not have a major impact on cash flow or liquidity, it can have a significant impact on valuation for USD investors, generic viagra plus online. Viagra plus online without a prescription, The Rand is currently trading at 7.65 per USD and has traded in a range from 6 to 12 historically.

Political Risk - The Company's growth plan relies on entering developing nations with sometimes tenuous governmental structures.

Technological Risk - While the Company's smart cards and other payment technologies appear to be quite forward thinking, the increasing availability of wireless communications infrastructure and cell phones poses a potential disruptive threat for a motivated competitor.

Quick and Dirty Valuation
Despite guidance of 20% yoy growth in EPS (constant currency) and long term catalysts for significant growth through new market entry internationally, viagra plus buy online, Viagra plus medicine, the Company trades at 12.0x P/E and, in fact, viagra plus in us, Cheap viagra plus from canada, represents a significant discount based on my analysis of PEG which has traditionally approached 1-1.2.

Further, drug viagra plus online purchase, Buy cheapest viagra plus online, for a smaller, growing company, cheap viagra plus no prescription, Find discount viagra plus online, UEPS generates significant free cash flow. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As defined as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures and investments, the Company has averaged approximately $110 million in free cash flow over its 2008 and 2009 fiscal years good for a 13.75% free cash flow yield. Put differently, buy viagra plus on internet, Buy viagra plus online australia, at no growth and a 10% discount rate this would justify a stock price of ~$24.00/share vs. its current price of $17.65/share. Obviously, with significant headline risk involved in the Company's 65% concentration in South African Social Security payments, this discount rate may not be appropriate.

The Company, however, currently has ~$2.00/share in net net working capital and $3.35/share in cash on hand and management has shown a willingness to redistribute value to shareholders having recently approved a $50 million share buyback to be funded entirely from cash on hand. Netting the entire value of cash out of the shares, the Company's cash yield would actually be closer to 17%, enough to pay back shareholders in less than 6 years if fully redistributed. Is this worth the risk of annual renewals of the South African contracts. I believe so.

Full disclosure: Author is long shares of UEPS at the time of writing..