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Buy viagra super force without prescription, It seems that Google is poised to make a potential $6 billion acquisition of Groupon which has been described as $5.3 billion in upfront consideration and $700 million in performance awards for management. Viagra super force information, Investor reaction yesterday was negative with the stock falling 4.5% and the internet appears to be on fire with bloggers and journalists bashing Google's reckless spending. Afterall, viagra super force without prescription, Viagra super force online sales, $6 billion is double the value Google paid for Doubleclick. It's $2 billion more than current rumored valuations for Twitter, viagra super force online cheap. Find viagra super force, Such an inflated purchase price for Groupon must surely be a sign that Google just doesn't know what to do with its cash hoard, right, find discount viagra super force. Well, before making wild declarations, let's try to put pen to paper and figure it out, buy viagra super force without prescription. Viagra super force australia, Valuation
Let's start by throw out the Twitter and Facebook valuation comparisons. Facebook recently reached valuations between $33 billion and $50 billion on Second Market, discount viagra super force. Viagra super force from canada, Various online sources appear to pin Facebook's revenues anywhere from $1.2 billion to $2.0 billion in 2010. The Company only became cash flow positive in Q2 2009, buy cheapest viagra super force online. Buy viagra super force without prescription, Even by the loftiest of expectations, Facebook is trading between 16x and 25x revenue likely near 100x cash flow earnings. Viagra super force sale, Twitter did not announce a monetization strategy until April of this year and was projecting just $140 million in 2010 revenue in 2009. If they hit their projection, viagra super force pharmacy online, Purchase viagra super force no rx, this would equate to 28x revenue. But, viagra super force online, Cheapest generic viagra super force online, let's be honest, Groupon is a vastly different business than Facebook and Twitter so let's literally "throw out" these valuations (for now), viagra super force canada. Buy discount viagra super force online, To me, Groupon is best compared to an internet retailer, viagra super force cheap price. By way of precedent transaction, Zappos was purchased for $1.2 billion by Amazon in 2009 which was essentially a 1.2x revenue multiple, buy viagra super force without prescription. Viagra super force pharmacy, However, Zappos was well known to run razor thin margins, buy viagra super force generic, Generic viagra super force online, rumored to be well in the single-digits. If this is true, viagra super force pill, Low price viagra super force, then Zappos likely changed hands at well over a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple.
Comparing to larger, buying generic viagra super force, Viagra super force online review, more mature e-tailers, Amazon trades at 2.6x revenue and 39.7x EV/EBITDA, cheapest viagra super force price. Viagra super force in us, EBay trades at 4.2x revenue and 11.8x EV/EBITDA.* The disparity in these metrics likely lies in the fact that E-Bay runs high-teens operating margins and Amazon runs low-single digit margins, but Amazon has been growing revenues at over 30% year-over-year while E-Bay has seemingly hit a growth wall over the last few years, buy viagra super force canada. Buy viagra super force without prescription, So, what does this all mean to Groupon. Low cost viagra super force, Consensus seems to be that Groupon will have sales around $500 million this year. However, viagra super force cheap, Viagra super force in uk, it has grown dramatically month-over-month and could be selling at a run-rate in excess of an annualized $600 million in gross sales. Assuming Groupon typically takes 50% of gross sales as its cut and then must pay overhead, buy discount viagra super force. Find no rx viagra super force, Groupon's overhead cost structure is likely to be significantly better than that of most tech companies with less of demand for hardware and most of its costs in personnel as the site doesn't have to do any more than handle requests one deal at a time (no videos, photos, cheap viagra super force on internet, Buy viagra super force no prescription required, messages, etc.), cheap viagra super force tablet. It's not hard to imagine that Groupon's EBITDA margins are closer to that of an EBay, and possibly better, buy viagra super force without prescription. Buy viagra super force online australia, Let's assume they are 25%. Additionally, buy viagra super force pills, Buy viagra super force online, relative to the tech startups and tech-heavy retailers I've described above, Groupon's business model is likely working capital negative and lower capital intensity which would mean that Groupon's EBITDA quality (as a proxy for cash flow) is likely higher than the others above, cheapest generic viagra super force.
Given these qualities of the Groupon business, it would seem fair that Groupon would deserve an EV/EBITDA valuation at the high end of the range for retailers. Groupon is a younger company than Amazon, but has a business model which is fundamentally more limited, so I'll split the difference and apply the exact same multiple (39.7x). Buy viagra super force without prescription, So, how much is Groupon worth? $600 million x 25% x 39.7 = $6.0 billion. Well, suddenly I feel a little better about Google's valuation. Do you.
* I acknowledge that I've mixed enterprise value and equity value metrics, but Groupon is likely a debt-free startup, I'm taking the liberty of assuming enterprise value and equity value are close.
Considerations/Risks to the Valuation
Clearly, Google is paying a full price. Moreover, depending on which metric drive's Google's public valuation, this deal may prove to not be value accretive. Google is currently trading at 6.5x revenue but just 13.0x EV/EBITDA, buy viagra super force without prescription. Accretion/dilution aside, on a standalone basis, I wouldn't call Amazon's stock cheap and Groupon has some obvious limitations to its appeal and value proposition which could limit its trajectory.
Additionally, the above analysis is clearly based on some aggressive assumptions. Even assuming that some of them are accurate today, there are serious questions about whether Groupon can sustain high-levels of profitability given increasing competition and some criticisms by partners over the sustainability of offering 75%-90% discounts.
All this said, Google is not buying Groupon as a standalone business and a significant case could be made for valuation upside due to Groupon's strategic value. Ostensibly, Google believes that it can integrate Groupon as part of a broader customer experience platform and enable various other parts of its service offering - particularly in local advertising. If this is true, could it be possible that Groupon can create value within Google more similar to the stratospheric valuations that Facebook and Twitter and other "true web" startups garner.
Full disclosure: Author is long shares of GOOG at the time of writing. .
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Buy viagra oral jelly without prescription, Motley Fool printed an interesting article, "Can you trust the cash flow at Johnson & Johnson?," yesterday. Buying viagra oral jelly, The author points out that "not all cash flow is equal" and shows this graph analyzing the sources of Johnson & Johnson's freecash flow:
Johnson & Johnson shareholders can breathe a sigh of relief as the author of this article comes to the conclusion that very little of JNJ's cash flow comes from "questionable sources." In fact, the author claims just 0.9% of JNJ's cash flow is questionable, cheap generic viagra oral jelly. Price of viagra oral jelly, The author describes questionable cash flow as "changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, cheap viagra oral jelly in canada, Order cheap viagra oral jelly, and asset sales, among others." I can't disagree with this definition as manipulating tax accounts and one-time asset sales are clearly not longterm sustainable sources of cash, discount viagra oral jelly overnight delivery. Tablet viagra oral jelly, That being said, from the perspective of trying to understand JNJ's cash flow which I would assume is more geared towards understanding how secure its dividend is, buy viagra oral jelly from canada, Viagra oral jelly medication, I don't think that these cash flow accounts tell the whole story. Changes in working capital accounts - accounts receivable, generic viagra oral jelly cheap, Viagra oral jelly india, inventories, and payables - can be significant sources or uses of cash in any given year, viagra oral jelly drug. Shrewd management of these accounts is a testament to the operational competence of a company's management team, buy viagra oral jelly without prescription. Viagra oral jelly free sample, Depending on working capital benefits for cash flow, however, buy viagra oral jelly on line, Cost of viagra oral jelly, is not a particularly good way to support a dividend.
So, no prescription viagra oral jelly, Order viagra oral jelly cheap online, what metric would I use to determine "good cash flow". That is, viagra oral jelly prices, Buy viagra oral jelly without prescription, sustainable cash flow generation abilities of a business. It sounds like finance hocus pocus and is often ridiculed by journalists looking to lambaste people in the finance industry, viagra oral jelly price, Canadian viagra oral jelly, but EBITDA is a very powerful analytical concept. (More on this to come)
In the mean time, buy viagra oral jelly us, Find viagra oral jelly no prescription required, if you'd like to learn more about working capital accounts and why cash flow and earnings do not always intersect, please check out my former posts on the topic:
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Universal Electronic Payment System (UEPS)
UEPS is a financial transaction system offered by Net1 which utilizes its patented Funds Transfer System and secure smart cards to provide real-time but offline payment solutions for un-banked/under-banked populations, cheapest viagra plus online. Order viagra plus from canada, These cards store all necessary information - available funds, user identity, best price viagra plus, Buy generic viagra plus online, etc. - and allows for transactions to take place without a connection to a host mainframe, viagra plus no prescription. Cheap viagra plus from uk, As such, the cards are particularly useful to countries with under developed infrastructure, viagra plus vendors. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As you may have guessed, Net1 does most of its business in developing countries, primarily South Africa, where it provides cards and point of sale equipment to governments which use the cards as a medium to distribute grants and other social welfare payments. Viagra plus prescription, Investment Strengths
- Proven, cost effective technology serving a large niche - Unlike traditional debit cards or credit cards, viagra plus cheapest price, Discount viagra plus without prescription, UEPS offers a proprietary technology which does not require always on connection to a primary host or even a bank account. Data is stored on the card and information transferred at the point of sale.
- Adoption reaching critical mass - The Company has long been used by the South African Social Security Administration to distribute entitlement payments to citizens and Net1 has recently leveraged this success into a national contract with Ghana as well as a roll out of its technology in Iraq.
- Operating leverage and free cash flow generation - The Company's equipment and cards are generally paid for by national governments which have chosen its system, buy viagra plus on internet. Viagra plus us, Further, as additional customers are enrolled and begin using their cards for payments, find viagra plus online, Purchase viagra plus online, the Company generates incremental transaction fees without significant incremental investment. Operating margins in the transaction processing segment are near 60%.
- Exposure to South African Social Security Administration Contract - 65% of revenues are currently generated through five provincal contracts with the SASSA, drug viagra plus. This contract has been on one-year renewal terms for the last three years as SASSA attempts to bid the contract through a formal RFP process, buy viagra plus without prescription. Order viagra plus without prescription, The last RFP process ended almost a year ago without a resolution and Net1's current contract in South Africa is set to expire on March 31, 2010.
- Exposure to South African Rand - The majority of the Company's costs and revenues are denominated in South African Rands, viagra plus in australia. Cheap viagra plus from canada, While exchange rate fluctuations will not have a major impact on cash flow or liquidity, it can have a significant impact on valuation for USD investors, buy generic viagra plus. Viagra plus buy, The Rand is currently trading at 7.65 per USD and has traded in a range from 6 to 12 historically.
- Political Risk - The Company's growth plan relies on entering developing nations with sometimes tenuous governmental structures.
- Technological Risk - While the Company's smart cards and other payment technologies appear to be quite forward thinking, the increasing availability of wireless communications infrastructure and cell phones poses a potential disruptive threat for a motivated competitor.
Quick and Dirty Valuation
Despite guidance of 20% yoy growth in EPS (constant currency) and long term catalysts for significant growth through new market entry internationally, canadian pharmacy viagra plus, Lowest price viagra plus, the Company trades at 12.0x P/E and, in fact, viagra plus order, Order viagra plus overnight delivery, represents a significant discount based on my analysis of PEG which has traditionally approached 1-1.2.
Further, buy viagra plus overnight delivery, Viagra plus online stores, for a smaller, growing company, viagra plus in malaysia, Viagra plus without a prescription, UEPS generates significant free cash flow. Buy viagra plus without prescription, As defined as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures and investments, the Company has averaged approximately $110 million in free cash flow over its 2008 and 2009 fiscal years good for a 13.75% free cash flow yield. Put differently, buy viagra plus once daily, Viagra plus for sale, at no growth and a 10% discount rate this would justify a stock price of ~$24.00/share vs. its current price of $17.65/share. Obviously, with significant headline risk involved in the Company's 65% concentration in South African Social Security payments, this discount rate may not be appropriate.
The Company, however, currently has ~$2.00/share in net net working capital and $3.35/share in cash on hand and management has shown a willingness to redistribute value to shareholders having recently approved a $50 million share buyback to be funded entirely from cash on hand. Netting the entire value of cash out of the shares, the Company's cash yield would actually be closer to 17%, enough to pay back shareholders in less than 6 years if fully redistributed. Is this worth the risk of annual renewals of the South African contracts. I believe so.
Full disclosure: Author is long shares of UEPS at the time of writing..
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